Austin DaGue

Warson Road Capital

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

#BTC $BTC $IBIT

The bottom is still not in

We are less than halfway into this bear market

Only a matter of time until we see $BTC in the 50s

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

Must read!

Blockchains are critical for agentic AI commerce

Micron $MU stock didn't move for years until people realized memory chips are critical to AI. I think a similar thing will happen to $ETH $SOL and other blockchains with the agentic AI revolution

[Franklin Templeton Digital Assets @FTDA_US]

https://t.co/YTePOu0fUc

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@dl123abc @BurkocetsCrypto Crypto is in a bear market!

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

$AVAT

I’m bullish! Market cap of $23 mil

Own 15 mil Avalanche tokens - worth approximately $99 million at time of writing

So by buying $AVAT you’re getting $AVAX at 23 cents on the dollar

Blackrock BUIDL is building on Avalanche, a huge part of the tokenization ecosystem

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@dl123abc @BurkocetsCrypto It's still early, they just debuted

[Jukan @jukan05]

MORE COMPUTE

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@BurkocetsCrypto High risk, high reward set up. Management track record isn't established like $MSTR or even $BMNR

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@BurkocetsCrypto If Avalanche gets back to all time highs of $30+ per token, that's a 5x, and if $AVAT just gets to 1:1 parity with its token holdings, thats a 4x, so if management can execute I think 20x in 2-3 years

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@GavinSBaker @garyHeff You're the man Gavin!

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

$BTC – What's Next?

The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

Everyone and I mean literally everyone I personally know has told me over the last three or four weeks, and especially over the last two weeks, that they want to buy in September or October. That alone is already very dangerous. When you ask them why, they all give the same answer: “Because of the four-year cycle.” And I honestly ask myself how long some of these people have even been in the market. The four-year cycle also worked almost perfectly at the top, but nobody talked about it then. That is the difference. At $120,000, nobody wanted to talk about the four-year cycle. In fact, people hated it. They said, “It does not exist. It does not exist,” because they were greedy and wanted prices to keep going higher.

Now the same people are greedy again, just in the opposite direction. They believe the market is going to serve them the exact bottom on a silver platter. “Here is the bottom. It will come around September or October. The exact price will be this or that.” That is genuinely what people believe. The problem is not the four-year cycle itself. The problem is the number of people who believe in the exact same outcome. The more people believe it, the less realistic it becomes. I honestly believe we will not see this traditional four-year-cycle bottom

The next question is: what do we actually see instead?

At the moment, I do not even see Bitcoin going below $50,000. There is an extreme amount of liquidity around $54,000, and that cannot be ignored. You have to keep that level in mind. From the current price down to $54,000 is around 15%. From a risk-reward perspective, even if we assume the worst-case scenario is a move into the $54,000 region, buying now and facing 15% downside is not much. It is nothing compared with the people who always and stupidly bought at $70,000, $80,000 or $90,000, and those who never understood the right moment to enter the market, and anyway, those people will always buy, and we cant count them among those who bought the bottom.

That is why it makes sense to begin accumulating now, step by step. Not all in. That is very important. I do not suddenly FOMO in and deploy everything. No. This will still take some time. I also believe the real move higher is not starting immediately. But there is one more thing people should not forget. They say the four-year cycle should end around October. Fine. Then let me ask you a counterquestion:

BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P, Nasdaq and the other major institutions are all involved in the DTCC, the new financial market infrastructure, and they want to move forward with the tokenization of stocks. BlackRock wants to launch the new platform in October. What does that mean?

It means investors WILL trade stocks 24 hours a day. That is enormous, and the market still has not fully understood it. Tokenization has mostly been treated like a beta phase until now. Platforms such as Hyperliquid and similar markets were effectively test environments. They wanted to see how much demand there was, how users would react and whether the infrastructure worked. The users had to be tested. The technology had to be tested. The market had to be tested. And it worked extremely well. Now it has been announced that this is expected to move forward in October. At the same time, there are rumors that the Clarity Act could pass in August. That would be enormous news.

If it passes, there is regulatory clarity. Institutions can enter the crypto market much more easily. I do not necessarily believe they will suddenly start buying the entire crypto market at scale, but I do believe they will move aggressively into tokenization, which could follow one or two months later. So lets return to my question:

Who benefits from tokenization?

First of all, the entire crypto market benefits. Even if institutions do not directly buy every cryptocurrency in large size, the narrative becomes bullish for crypto and Blockchain. The market starts to see blockchain as legitimate, institutional and part of the future financial system.

Then you will see prices move strongly in my opinion. I expect we will see BlackRock announcing partnerships, BlackRock doing something with Bitcoin, Trump making new statements, and suddenly the entire narrative becomes extremely bullish because everything fits together. Do you really believe BlackRock will aggressively push tokenization forward in October while, at the exact same time, the crypto market crashes, fear dominates and nobody wants anything to do with crypto? Do you think that ? I do not.

I believe we will see FOMO in October. I believe we will see large candles and strong momentum in the market. It may not necessarily be the same type of retail FOMO we have seen before, but there will be growing confidence and acceptance, while major bullish news enters the market at the same time. And this will be the time where the retails are sitting and doing what ? Exactly, these people will wait for their four years cycle! Let them wait for their cycle, because the market will front run that! In my opinion, that will create an extremely powerful bullish narrative.

That is why the fact that everyone now believes in the four-year-cycle bottom is a warning sign to me. It tells me the crowd may once again be completely wrong. I especially believe that many people sitting with buy orders below $50,000 will never get filled. That is why I am starting to accumulate now. I hope we still take the liquidity around $54,000, because that would give an even better entry. I have my orders ready, and I will continue buying gradually every day.

The Exact Strategy: How I Am Buying, How Much I Am Deploying, and the BTC–ETH Ratio

Watching this chart closely. In my opinion, once Bitcoin reclaims and flips the green line on the weekly timeframe, the end of the bear market will be confirmed. This would not be a standalone signal. It would align with several other indicators I am monitoring, some of which I have already disclosed inside Premium, together with multiple technical, psychological and fundamental factors I am currently considering. Bitcoin has already reclaimed the weekly MA200. The next major step is to reclaim this green line and hold above it on the weekly close. Once that happens, my next major target becomes $80,000. For now, however, Bitcoin has faced a rejection at this level, while a large amount of liquidity remains around $54,000. That is why my strategy is structured around two completely separate buckets of capital. It is important to understand that I am not mixing these funds.

The first bucket consists entirely of realized profits from the Bitcoin short opened around $120,000 and the more than 100 altcoin shorts I held for approximately nine months. I deployed that entire bucket yesterday and bought Bitcoin at around $64,000. In other words, I converted the profits made during the bear market directly into a long-term Bitcoin position fully.

The second bucket is completely separate. This is capital that was never used in the short positions and remained on the sidelines. I am now deploying this cash gradually. My plan is to invest this second bucket on every day Bitcoin trades between $54,000 and $64,000. Five percent multiplied by 20 purchases equals 100%, meaning the entire amount would be deployed if Bitcoin remains inside this accumulation zone for approximately 20 buying days.

If Bitcoin trades at $64,000, I buy. If it trades at $60,000, I buy. If it falls to $58,000, I buy. If it reaches $54,000, I continue buying at a better price. However, if Bitcoin moves above $64,000, I stop adding the daily 5%. I will not chase the market outside the accumulation zone. After approximately one month, the objective is to hold one large Bitcoin position purchased at around $64,000 using the realized short profits, together with a second position accumulated gradually through disciplined daily purchases. Depending on how deeply Bitcoin trades inside the range, I expect my combined average entry to settle somewhere around the $60,000 region.

From a risk-to-reward perspective, I personally consider my average Bitcoin entry around $60,000 to be phenomenal for the long term. That level is below the previous 2021 all-time-high region, and thats an exceptional position. At the same time, I am following a fixed BTC-to-ETH allocation. For every four dollars I invest in Bitcoin, I invest one dollar in Ethereum. That means for every $100,000 deployed into BTC, I allocate $25,000 to ETH.

Bitcoin remains the dominant position, while Ethereum receives an allocation equal to 25% of every Bitcoin purchase. Ethereum is a separate topic that deserves its own full report, because I am extremely bullish on ETH for the next major market expansion. So the strategy is clear: one bucket of realized short profits has already been fully deployed into Bitcoin at approximately $64,000. The second bucket is being deployed gradually through daily 5% purchases whenever Bitcoin trades between $54,000 and $64,000. For every four dollars invested in BTC, one dollar is invested in ETH.

That is the strategy, my accumulation just started

Join Premium and you will not miss out on what exactly I am buying, what I plan to build, where I place potential long orders and other of my trading targets: https://t.co/oP8wCPuO9J

THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@jackcavanagh_ 😂

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Cheaper open source tokens drive incremental compute demand:

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

Prediction - $QBTS is the ticker behind an Intel legend's boldest call

Pat Gelsinger @PGelsinger predicts meaningful quantum computing results before 2030, citing four to six competing hardware approaches (trapped ions, photonic, spin) now showing credible error correction. His read: it's an engineering-scale race now, not an open physics question.

He discloses he's an investor in D-Wave Quantum ($QBTS), one of the companies in that race. That's a real conflict worth pricing into the confidence, not a reason to dismiss the call outright. Gelsinger spent decades picking real technology inflection points correctly.

Demis Hassabis @demishassabis of Google DeepMind has pushed the other way in public interviews, arguing commercial-scale quantum advantage sits much further out than most boosters claim, physics problems included.

$QBTS is a single-signal name in our graph right now. If you hold it or anything quantum-adjacent, the gap between "before 2030" and "further out" is the whole trade.

Source: All-In Podcast - https://t.co/LLZjYge7GO

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Risk/reward seems attractive again.

Lots of cheap stocks with durable competitive advantages that are going to crush numbers for the next 6-12 quarters.

Time will tell!

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@StonkChris $BMNR

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@StonkChris Spot on

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@crblandet This is great. Do you have an English version?

[Art of Speculation @ArtofSpecuycky]

就在市场还在讨论 AI 资本开支是不是开始放缓的时候，今天有两条新闻。
1. Meta 计划投资 100 亿美元建设加拿大数据中心。
2. Amazon 计划投资 50 亿美元建设菲律宾数据中心。

最近市场最大的担忧还是云厂商会不会开始削减 AI CapEx。如果巨头资本开支真准备踩刹车，很难解释为什么几家巨头还在全球继续布局新的数据中心。

当然，这两笔投资不代表所有担忧都已经消失，也不能单凭两条新闻就下结论说资本开支一定会一路加速。还是要等接下来各家科技巨头的财报和业绩会。

我的想法是不会降低资本开支，巨头不会主动降低 AI 资本开支，AI 军备竞赛还远没有结束。

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@ZeroHedge_ @halstonvalencia 😂😂 true. But cmon I think it’s got $170k in it for 2029!

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@Micro2Macr0 Love it! I'm thinking 10x

Currently holding 20k BTC, with cash to buy more

If they can get to 25k BTC holdings, assuming a BTC peak at $190k next bull run, and a 2x mNAV premium (similar to previous peak in 2025), that gets you a $10B market cap

[Austin DaGue @austin_dague]

@AltcoinPsycho Thoughts on $FWDI ? Think it could outperform Solana next 3 years