Arul Velan

Tech & macro investor. Startup veteran. Made the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs. My belief is shoot for the stars. And, tweets & retweets or Xs & reXs are not advice.

[Szymanski @Szymansk_ii]

Next time you think of giving up, remember this photo of Elon in 2008.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@KeithMcCullough Did you mean Nassim Taleb?

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@hnshah @SamAsante Niiiiiiiiiiiice

[Matt Schlicht @MattPRD]

The web will be terraformed for AI agents.

We’re mid process right now.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@graddhytrading Nicely said on the gold & palladium comparison.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@CoachDanGo 20x or perhaps 20%?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is unusual:

The S&P 500 has now seen 29 trading days where the index moved opposite to overall market breadth, the most through the first 93 trading sessions of any year on record.

In other words, on many days when the S&P 500 closed higher, more stocks actually finished lower than higher, and vice versa when the index closed down.

This is also the 2nd year on record with more than 20 such sessions through this point in the year.

This comes as only 10 stocks have accounted for ~70% of the S&P 500’s 16% gain since the March 30th bottom.

At this pace, the market will experience 79 sessions like this until the year ends, setting an all-time high.

By comparison, the current full-year record is 57 trading days seen in 2024 and 2025.

A handful of tech stocks are driving the entire market.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@NorthstarCharts Why did you choose the end of July 2025 as the start of this chart?

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@graddhytrading Solid post.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is now down to 0.84, matching the 2008 Financial Crisis low.

This comes as the Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.6% MoM in March, posting its 7th monthly decline out of the last 8.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims.

At the same time, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures current economic conditions in real time, such as nonfarm payrolls or personal income, excluding government social security or unemployment payments.

This ratio is now on track for its 5th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak on record.

In the past, such depressed levels have never occurred outside of a recession.

The US economy and the stock market are moving in opposite directions.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@graddhytrading Solid view with the weeklies and monthlies, G.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@graddhytrading @mike23432813 This is golden. Pun intended.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@Mr_Derivatives Do you believe Tom Lee is high signal?

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Since the bottom in the S&P 500 in 3q 2002:

SPX Total Return (blue): Up 1,156%

SPX Total Return priced in gold (red): Down 17.5%

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@graddhytrading Solid eye.

[Arul Velan @avelan]

@PauloMacro @Hedgeye @agnostoxxx @hkuppy @Seawolfcap Does it need cover art? We may have another candidate

[Jason Haver @PretzelLogic]

Social media rewards confident claims.
Markets punish them.

Lately, a lot of people have become confident overnight “experts” in oil futures

But markets are nonlinear, complex, and probabilistic.

People who actually trade (and survive) these markets tend to learn humility fast