Tech & macro investor. Startup veteran. Made the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs. My belief is shoot for the stars. And, tweets & retweets or Xs & reXs are not advice.
This is unusual:
The S&P 500 has now seen 29 trading days where the index moved opposite to overall market breadth, the most through the first 93 trading sessions of any year on record.
In other words, on many days when the S&P 500 closed higher, more stocks actually finished lower than higher, and vice versa when the index closed down.
This is also the 2nd year on record with more than 20 such sessions through this point in the year.
This comes as only 10 stocks have accounted for ~70% of the S&P 500’s 16% gain since the March 30th bottom.
At this pace, the market will experience 79 sessions like this until the year ends, setting an all-time high.
By comparison, the current full-year record is 57 trading days seen in 2024 and 2025.
A handful of tech stocks are driving the entire market.
BREAKING: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is now down to 0.84, matching the 2008 Financial Crisis low.
This comes as the Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.6% MoM in March, posting its 7th monthly decline out of the last 8.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims.
At the same time, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures current economic conditions in real time, such as nonfarm payrolls or personal income, excluding government social security or unemployment payments.
This ratio is now on track for its 5th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak on record.
In the past, such depressed levels have never occurred outside of a recession.
The US economy and the stock market are moving in opposite directions.
Social media rewards confident claims.
Markets punish them.
Lately, a lot of people have become confident overnight “experts” in oil futures
But markets are nonlinear, complex, and probabilistic.
People who actually trade (and survive) these markets tend to learn humility fast