avis richards

#CEO/Founder @BirdsNestOrg. #BirdsNestFoundation’s Digital Media gives non-profits a voice through #videoproduction and web-enabled #content.

[avis richards @avisrichards]

My #MondayMotivation is my personal #DigitalTransformation! I am attending a event that @Forbes describes #TechUpforWomen as one of the TOP FIVE most inspiring conferences 2018! I am so excited to be in the room & learn from 2500 @techupforwomen attendees! #womeninbusiness #nyc

[Tech Up For Women @techupforwomen]

HUGE NEWS! @Forbes described #TechUpforWomen as one of the TOP FIVE most inspiring conferences of 2018! We are honored and so thankful to be mentioned among other incredible #conferences. Engage with us and read the full article here → https://t.co/ylFMJnwmVt

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

Green, Black, or Blue, but never Red:

When I was a young, up and coming trader on Wall Street, I believed in FILO (first in, last out), not for face time, but to learn every element about what makes the markets tick. As part of my daily routine, I marked the trading book at the close of business daily, which usually took 1 hour, to make sure every line item was accurate, and the P&L was perfectly stated, without exception. I was taught at a very early age that integrity is everything; your word is your honor. I learned this in my household growing up as a young boy as my loving parents always stressed these values, which were reinforced when I arrived on Wall Street.

In these early years of my career, I sat immediately to the left of the Head Trader, a big, boisterous fellow who had the tendency to yell when he wanted to teach lessons, which I was on the receiving side from time to time. These episodes taught me to have thick skin and never to give into pressure, a trait that came naturally. He would often slam his fist or break the phone receiver when slamming that into his trading desk, usually when markets went against him. Not exactly my style, but I was a young professional just starting out, reporting directly to him, so you suck it up. There was never a day that I did not learn, so I cherished every day, every minute, including the uncomfortable moments like this.
One evening as I marked the book, he grabbed the pen out of my hand, broke it in half, threw it in the trash and said, "Don't ever write with a red pen on my desk! Red means losses. Write in green, black or blue, but never red." I laughed inside as I nodded in agreement, and kept my mouth shut. I have never been superstitious about such silly things as the color of a pen and found this somewhat humorous.

This episode taught me the lessons I carry to this day. There are 261 business days in a year. You will have up days and down days. Do not get too high on the wins and do not let the losses consume you. Learn from your mistakes, recalibrate, and perfect your game. Do not be emotional. Make smart decisions by taking all vectors of information into account, knowing what is most relevant that will drive the outcome. If you are talented, and I never doubted myself, and you work exceptionally hard, you have edge as the credit markets offer exceptional opportunity to prosper.

Create your own luck. That does not come from the color of your pen. It comes from preparation, from knowing your markets, the risk factors working when nobody is there watching.

Know how to take a loss and move on. The great ones in this business are not the ones who never lose. They are the ones who build bigger wins that offset manageable losses, who stay disciplined when markets are volatile or dislocated, with a talent to understand relative value and credit selection.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." by famous Roman philosopher

[avis richards @avisrichards]

@elonmuskTN 18

[avis richards @avisrichards]

https://t.co/x8AfZJOUlw

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

“Don’t count the days; make the days count.” -- Muhammad Ali

Congratulations to the Class of 2025.
Commencement doesn’t mean you’re finished - you’re just getting starting. The dress rehearsal is over, your professional life begins shortly.

I've walked the path you're about to travel, it’s exciting, your prior credentials take a back seat to your relentless desire to succeed, where EQ is as important as IQ. I've watched countless "talented" graduates fade, while those with exceptional gamesmanship and work ethic excel.

Remember, it’s not who you know, it’s what you know, how badly you want it.

My Top 12 nuggets of advice are:
1. Read voraciously.
2. Reject average, exceptionalism is rewarded.
3. Preparation is critical, always be the most prepared person in the room.
4. Seek feedback, your ego is irrelevant when you want to perfect your game.
5. Ask for assignments nobody wants.
6. Choose your path wisely, allowing you to maximize your growth.
7. Integrity is everything, never compromise it.
8. Learning makes you more valuable (CFA) while technology skills prepare you for the changing face of finance (Python, R).
9. Be nice to everyone, teamwork is recognized, and this attitude will serve you in building a strong-lasting network.
10. Loyalty is underappreciated by most young professionals, yet it's critical for job advancement over time.
11. Be expert in one niche segment of finance, the rest will (may) come later.
12. IQ is important, EQ is essential.

I was honored to give a commencement speech at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business (2014).

Congratulations & good luck!

https://t.co/4m1zg5PKUG

[avis richards @avisrichards]

@elonmuskADO 19

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

‘Imagine all the people, living by the sea…’

Imagine 1,000+ miles of pristine coast line, the best coral reefs & sand beaches where the sun always shines. Welcome to Saudi Arabia. Red Sea Global has just opened two 5-star+ hotels that’s hard to replicate since the governments owns this valuable land with a cost basis of 0. Ritz Carlton & St. Regis are the first two resorts open; Four Seasons, Rosewood, Raffles, and 20 more world-class branded resorts in the works. It’s beautiful, safe, and fun. Go for vacation, bring your family, it’s that good!

The Kingdom is alive, well & thriving. 2024 GDP is +2.6% and 2025 is 6%(E), a debt-to-GDP ratio of 26%. It’s the only ME economy with a $1T+ economy. SA promotes free markets and capitalism. Its people are highly supportive of its government, including women who are a major part of the work force; it’s refreshing to see that everyone is united and supportive of MBS, the Crown Prince. MBS is hugely admired for his leadership, vision and commitment.

Saudi is happening, not as large as India but equally transformative. Like the UAE, Saudi is the model for peace and prosperity in the ME. Saudi is Switzerland- avoids military conflict; it keeps its eye on the economic prize, does business with USA and China, alike. Its only challenge is its neighbors (Iran, Yemen).

I travelled the country with a small group of Institutional Investors, arriving Friday night in Jeddah, toured KAEC—the tax free economic/manufacturing zone where diverse industry sectors are growing. Then, the Red Sea resorts and the concept city of NEOM, the biggest development project in the world. It was a fascinating trip capped by Davos in the Desert (FII), a must-attend Global conference.

It does not take imagination once you see it. I have been to Saudi many times, and next time I return, I plan to stay for the weekend and swim in the Red Sea.

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

Top 10 reasons to lean into CRE:
1. No Recession looming

2. Lower Financing Costs

3. Valuations reset lower and have stabilized
CRE recovery will be painfully slow, yet in the early stage of restoring confidence

4. $1T debt maturity wall is daunting, ton of restructuring and foreclosures yet to occur

5. Credit Rating agencies remain behind the curve: 74 CMBS bonds downgraded v. 0 bonds upgraded

6. Credit analysis for each loan in securitization is paramount, allowing for substantial opportunity in the $1T CMBS market

7. Lender’s Market with a shortage of capital as banks CRE lending is more conservative

8. Default rates to remain elevated for CRE v. Direct Lending (corporate) default rates

9. Many forced sellers in need of liquidity

10. CRE dislocation, opportunities greatest I have seen in years

https://t.co/9bZddqBr8M

[Money Movers @moneymoverscnbc]

"We believe although it'll be a slow grind higher in terms of valuations for real estate – a very slow grind higher – the bottom has been set."

Marathon Asset Management CEO @Bruce_Markets is bullish on CRE with an eye on multifamily, hospitality and industrial logistics.

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

AMCs EBITDA (E) vs. pre-covid should be higher. This is despite analyst expectations for smaller box office sales since ticket prices are up +21% & concessions spend +45% from 2019! With a smaller box office, AMC makes more money than it did pre-covid, and that is how apes survive and thrive in the jungle.

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

https://t.co/k77lyjayRG

[avis richards @avisrichards]

Join me and show your support for saving the Former Calhoun School Building from becoming another shelter. https://t.co/tDAuuvomiA

[avis richards @avisrichards]

@gregkellyusa God Bless America & Donald Trump

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

Strawberries and Cream:
It’s Wimbledon finals this weekend, Breakfast at Wimbledon is must-see. What’s also must-see is Roger Federer’s 2024 commencement speech at Dartmouth College, rich with insights on what makes champions and lessons he shared regarding perseverance, passion, humility, continuous learning, focus, and discipline. Roger Federer, my all-time favorite player who won 20 Grand Slam Titles, including 8 Wimbledon titles talks about the endless practice, preparation, and hard work it takes to be the best version of oneself. Roger’s speech is a masterclass in life lessons, offering a blueprint for achieving excellence. Key qualities for any champion begin with the passion one brings to the sport or one’s profession, a trait that is necessary to preserve excellence a long career, says Roger. Humility and gratitude help keep you grounded, while continuous desire to learn and adapt is critical as the years go on, he states, as is mental fortitude and uncompromised discipline-- essential to navigate life’s challenges and achieving sustained success.

Roger reminds us that he won only 54% of his points during his professional career, yet that enabled him to win ~80% of his matches and maintain #1 ranked player in the world for several years. When losing a point, the key is to focus on the next point, adjust to situation, solve for what it takes to win the next point, the next game. When winning a point, even a spectacular point that makes ESPN Top 10 Plays, forget about the point, its only a point, focus on winning the next point, one point at a time—advice from the best. Bring intensity, but also clarity and focus of mind every minute on the court Roger shares. People say “I play effortlessly” as Roger moves with such grace on the court, but Roger reminds us how hard he works behind the scenes to be conditioned to do so. What Roger does off the court is also so impressive, a family man, a husband, father, son, businessman, philanthropist, close friends with his competitors on the tour and kind to so many others he has met along the way, including me.

@rogerfederer thank you for the memories and sharing your advice with the Dartmouth graduating class and the rest of us that can learn from your lessons, and I hope that you enjoy Strawberries and Cream like the rest of us watching Breakfast at Wimbledon.

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

Happy Independence Day!
248 years, a remarkable journey that began in 1776 when 13 American colonies became independent from British, as the Founding Fathers drafted The U.S. Constitution and Bill of Rights that guarantees freedoms which form the bedrock of American society: freedom of speech, religion, press, and the right to peaceful assembly to empower individuals to express themselves, worship as they choose, and hold their government accountable. This liberty fosters a society where diverse voices can coexist, promoting innovation and progress across the spectrum from equal rights to AI.
The U.S. is a remarkable melting pot with a rich tapestry of cultures, languages, and traditions and a diversity of people that is a source of strength, driving creativity and innovation. People from around the world are drawn to the opportunities for economic advancement and innovation in the U.S., attracting people from around the globe attending the top colleges in the world. This influx of talent contributes to the nation's diverse workforce, bringing new ideas and perspectives that drive further innovation and economic growth. From technology and science to the arts and sports, the U.S. has been at the forefront of groundbreaking developments, largely due to the contributions of individuals from varied backgrounds. The principles of free enterprise and the spirit of entrepreneurship have fostered an environment where individuals can turn ideas into thriving businesses.

The "American Dream” - anyone can achieve success through hard work and determination is a powerful motivator and a source of national pride. This American Dream has allowed me to dream big, to compete in business and the markets, and to run a business that impacts so many people from our employees to our clients, providing capital to companies that enables growth. Free markets and the ability to pursue profit drives individuals and companies to create new products, improve, and grow market share for existing ones. This relentless pursuit of better goods and services leads to technological advancements and efficiencies that benefit society. Through the accumulation of capital and the efficient allocation of resources, the U.S. has seen significant advancements in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and technology, leading to higher living standards and better quality of life. From the invention of the light bulb to the development of the internet to future impact of AI, many of the world's groundbreaking innovations have emerged from the U.S., largely because of its capitalist framework which rewards creativity and entrepreneurial risk-taking. This leads to job creation, higher productivity, and overall economic expansion, a contribution that has also lifts developed and developing nations around the world.

Happy Fourth of July!

[avis richards @avisrichards]

Marathon's Richards Says 'Animal Sprits' Are Out, Goldie Locks & Roaring Kitty. https://t.co/rayIeKBw4P

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

Let’s Make a Deal:
Financing for Direct Lending transactions requires reviewing trailing 3-year financials plus forward 5-year projections supported by a Quality of Earnings report. S&P Global Ratings reports that financial reporting has become too liberal with respect to Addbacks and Adjustments as it consistently understated a company’s leverage. The report evaluates 200 LBO transactions, analyzing the magnitude and composition of addbacks & adjustments that “creates higher event risk and potential credit degradation,” often overstating the ability for the obligor to repay debt/reduce leverage. The conclusion is that Debt-to-EBITDA leverage is ~2.5x higher post.

It is important to recognize that EBITDA doesn’t account for capital expenditures, changes in working capital, debt payments and taxes, and often includes addbacks that are cash outflows. At the end of the day free cash flow may be more volatile, but it is critical to include in one’s evaluation metrics. Evaluating EBITDA, free cash, and other financial metrics as well as qualitative factors makes for a well-rounded investment decision. LBOs completed in 2015-2020 showed that 95% of the companies neglected to meet Year-1 EBITDA projections and 55% of companies missing Year-2 earnings projections by 33% or more. S&P added that sponsor models for debt reduction often failed to meet projections.

S&P ran further analysis on 600 LBO transactions financed in the BSL market and the biggest component of addbacks was for “expected synergies and cost savings” representing the largest component of the calculation, which is obviously hard to forecast. Not surprisingly, the sector with the largest miss was technology, while B-rated companies chalked up a median leverage miss of 2.6x higher than projections. Interesting, PE sponsor deals showed a bigger miss v. non-sponsor transactions.

It was nice to read the S&P report, as it simply confirms the approach that Curtis Lueker and the Marathon Asset Management Direct Lending team takes as we are acutely focused on financial reporting, true cash flows and credit worthiness to price risk accordingly. A page from the Marathon playbook is highlighted below that shows the High Yield & Leveraged Loan market true leverage (debt-to-EBITDA) differential between reported EBITDA v. actual EBITDA (excluding the Addbacks and Adjustments). On average, companies carry 2x or greater leverage than what is often marketed in their Debt-to-EBITDA calculations.

The quality of your financial analysis matters regardless of if you are providing capital in the Private Credit market or Broadly Syndicated Loan or Bond market. It is a great time to lend, it’s never been better; however, stay skeptical, forensically verify the qualitative & quantitative, and independently build your financial model to include not only base-case, but downside scenarios to make sure the business holds up well with an eagle eye when shown addbacks and adjustments.

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

https://t.co/uKvP0BpRxh
I’m delighted to share this 45-minute Bloomberg podcast where I discuss the vast range of compelling opportunities presented in the markets today and how Marathon Asset Management is providing creative solutions across Direct Lending, Opportunistic Credit, and Asset-Bassd Lending.

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” - Warren Buffett

In the equity world, the highest quality compounders are the simplest yet most difficult from a portfolio management perspective - it is fundamental to human nature that *doing something* is productive, yet the best possible strategy in this case is often to do nothing.

[Sara Eisen @SaraEisen]

.@Bruce_Markets is must listen here on the outlook for markets, why he’s not buying S&P at 5k and the fate of New York Community Bank

[Bruce Richards @Bruce_Markets]

Joining @CNBC today at 11am to discuss the Fed, markets and compelling opportunities - tune in!
@SaraEisen @carlquintanilla