Alexandra Sitenko

Kazakh-Russian-Ukrainian Political Analyst. Diplomacy, Geopolitics I BRICS, Eurasia, Latin America I Russia-Global South I Dr.Phil from @Unileipzig

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

As #BRICS leaders meet in New Delhi this weekend, the grouping faces a familiar question: Is it becoming a meaningful geopolitical actor or is it little more than a diplomatic talking shop? In my new analysis I challenge the premise behind this debate.
https://t.co/qITntDeBcH

[Flavio E. @FlavioEvan]

Brazil's Election:

The far-right is pushing this narrative while leaving out half the story. Check the timeline and the numbers and the whole thing falls apart:

October 25:

Earlier in the day, @FlavioBolsonaro (PL) bragged on social media about having 200,000+ volunteer poll watchers in electoral zones.

~1pm: @LulaOficial (PT) files 1 request to extend voting (0603389-27.2026.6.00.0000), plus 1 addendum around 3pm.

~3pm: @FlavioBolsonaro (PL) ALSO asks to extend voting, with 2 separate requests (0603394-49.2026.6.00.0000 and 0603393-64.2026.6.00.0000).

~4pm: @LulaOficial takes his request to the STF.

~5pm: TSE president hadn't ruled yet. Zanin notes that BOTH candidates asked for an extension and orders it only for polling stations still open.

~8pm: TSE president Nunes Marques, appointed by Bolsonaro himself, declares Lula the winner and states on the record that the extension did not affect the result or compromise the voting system.

After 8pm: the heads of the Chamber and the Senate, and international leaders, recognize the result.

Now the math. Only 0.027% of votes came in after 5pm: 34,424 out of 127,697,270 (excluding abroad). @LulaOficial won by ~4.4M. He grew ~10M from the 1st round, @FlavioBolsonaro ~4M. That +14M came from fewer blank/null votes, third-party voters and lower abstention.

34k late votes don't flip a 4.4M lead.

Sources: public TSE ballot box logs, official TSE results, TSE/STF filings (0603389-27.2026.6.00.0000, 0603394-49.2026.6.00.0000, 0603393-64.2026.6.00.0000).

[Qasym-Jomart Toqayev @TokayevKZ]

I congratulate you, President @LulaOficial, on your well-deserved victory in the presidential election.

The Brazilian people have expressed their support for your policy of strengthening national sovereignty, enhancing Brazil’s standing as a major global power, advancing reform of the United Nations, and promoting a world order based on justice.

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

Parabéns, #Brasil! 🇧🇷🥳 Felicidades, América Latina!

[Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 @OliverStuenkel]

Lula is the first presidential candidate in Brazilian history to finish second in the first round and still win the presidency in the runoff.

[Marta Havryshko @HavryshkoMarta]

I’m so desperately opposed to a war with Russia that I keep pushing Ukraine further up the escalation ladder.

I provide them with intelligence and weapons to target not just military sites, but civilian infrastructure in Russia, Crimea, and Donbas too.

Naturally, I maintain a dignified silence whenever civilians are killed by Ukrainian forces or the Ukrainian army commits war crimes. Apparently, some civilian lives are more equal than others.

Meanwhile, my ambassador keeps poking the Russian bear with empty promises about Ukraine joining NATO. Because nothing says “de-escalation” quite like waving a red flag in front of a nuclear power.

But no, no, no — I absolutely do NOT want war. I’m merely steering Germany straight toward another one, despite most Germans having no appetite for it.

After all, peace is wonderful, but have you seen Rheinmetall’s profit margins?

Never again? Sure. Unless the shareholders need another record quarter.

----
Germany’s Chancellor Merz on Russia:

We are facing a massive threat in the east of our continent.
We see Russia trying to destabilize Germany every single day.
I do not want a return to the darkest periods in the history of our continent.

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

The goal of the negotiation process, which appears set to begin soon, is not only to end the war in #Ukraine, but to build a European security architecture that includes #Russia. The failure to achieve this after the Cold War ultimately led to the current war.

This will be a difficult and lengthy process, but it is encouraging that its necessity is recognized not only by the U.S. administration but also by European leaders such as @prezidentpavel in his interview with @ronzheimer

A European security order built against Russia would be unsustainable.

[BenAris @bneeditor]

#RadioMoskva

Is a Ukraine peace deal in the works?

Something important appears to have happened in Oslo yesterday. At a press conference following a meeting between leaders from Ukraine, US, Finland and Norway the tone of statements changed dramatically, and US envoy Steve Witkoff immediately left to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg today. Something is going on.

We do not yet know exactly what Washington has put on the table, but there were tantalising hints like Zelenskiy mentioning “security deal,” and clearly it was a productive meeting according to all the participants. Most important is that both Ukraine and the EU heads dialled their criticism of the Trump administration back after several days of lambasting him following last week’s diesel deal with Putin.

All the positive language from Kyiv and the US suggests that a package centred on American security guarantees may finally have broken the deadlock. Now Witkoff is now in St Petersburg to see whether Vladimir Putin will buy it.

Trump is desperate for a deal ahead of a trouncing in the midterm elections in a few weeks. Zelenskiy is desperate as he is unable to prevent the bombardment of Ukraine that Russia has already launched. He has run out of time to get his allies to help as the heating season has just started and not only does he not have enough interceptor missiles, since the Starlink satellite system was throttled not even Ukraine’s jet powered interceptor missiles work anymore.

The only person not in a rush is Putin. Sure, the Russian economy is hurting, but it is nowhere near crisis and has still has resources to continue for at least two more years, Russian oligarch-turned-dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky told IntelliNews this month.

Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy alongside Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. A US official described the discussions as "very productive and constructive", said Ukraine had brought forward “new proposals,” and claimed there had been "meaningful progress" towards a common US-Ukrainian-European position.

The mellow remarks come after a week of shouting where Zelenskiy said Trump had “betrayed" Ukraine and Trump said that Zelenskiy had to go and that he was a “dictator.”

The most important clue came from Zelenskiy himself: he said the package now contains security guarantees modelled on Nato's Article 5 — exactly the issue Kyiv has spent years trying to nail down.

"We discussed Nato, Article 5 and Article 5-like guarantees," Zelenskiy said after the meeting. "Different types of security guarantees are included in the document, which Steve will share with the Russians, and we will hear their feedback.”

He also thanked Washington for reiterating that the guarantees would be "reliable".

And this is not unlikely. Part of the 27-point peace plan (27PPP) that the Dynamic Envoy Duo thrashed out at the Moscow meeting on December 3 with Putin included a “Nato Article-5 like” security deal – the only genuine innovation that Trump administration has brought to the party – that Zelenskiy has suggested would be enough for him to consider giving territory away. Since then Kushner has said this month that giving up Donbas is the key that would unlock the deal.

That does not mean a peace deal has been done. Far from it. But it does look increasingly as though Washington has put a serious security offer on the table.

The big question is whether Putin will accept it. Witkoff arrived in St Petersburg on October 21, and the meeting is underway as I write. What happens in that room is suddenly far more important than most of the endless diplomatic meetings held over the last four years. After the Moscow meeting this looks like the next big opportunity to break the deadlock.

This article originally appeared in Editor’s Picks, a free daily email digest of bne IntelliNews’ best stories from the last 24 hours. Sign up for free here.
https://t.co/qTjzi3qo0C

https://t.co/bKUfi2KiIP

[Clash Report @clashreport]

NEW: European leaders may soon hold direct talks with Vladimir Putin and could offer him two paths to peace in Ukraine, according to a Financial Times column by Gideon Rachman.

The first would freeze the war on the current front line in exchange for a guarantee that Ukraine never joins NATO.

The second would see Ukraine give up the rest of the Donbas but then join the alliance.

Rachman writes that European capitals increasingly reject leaving talks with Putin to Washington alone, citing frustration with Trump’s approach.

He adds that Europeans are much less confident Putin would accept either option.

[Leonid Ragozin @leonidragozin]

“On the other hand, the sadistic nature of this decision is, of course, shocking. I have a great deal of psychological work ahead of me to process and come to terms with my own feelings about this. After all, Latvia is a place I genuinely loved and considered home. And, naturally, I would like to be of service to Latvia. I pose no threat to this country.

I believe the threat to Latvia comes from those who alienate people like me, commit unlawful acts, engage in extrajudicial political repression, and harshly punish individuals for their honest views—for attempting an intellectually honest analysis of the political situation and the military conflict.”

My interview with @meduzaproject

https://t.co/gRp9vM86jO

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

Впервые в следующий вторник буду давать вебинар на русском языке для @RidlRussia на одну из своих любимых тем: Латинская Америка 🙂 Вот ссылка для регистрации: https://t.co/CyGPnWPDL0

For the first time, next Tuesday I'll be presenting at a webinar in Russian on one of my favorite topics: Latin America in global politics. Here's the link to register: https://t.co/CyGPnWPDL0

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

Lenin and Stalin are surprisingly common names in countries like Ecuador and Colombia. But Hitler Mussolini? That’s just too much, even by those standards😅

[BBC News (World) @BBCWorld]

Man named Hitler Mussolini elected mayor in Peru https://t.co/wCwv1bbE5o

[Joanna Lillis @joannalillis]

Diplomatic flurry in #Turkmenistan as it hosts the first real C6 (#CentralAsia and #Azerbaijan) summit, a CIS summit and a meeting of Caspian littoral states leaders, all taking place in the purpose-built Avaza resort on the Caspian
https://t.co/Rhz9sGFiFd

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

Peskov: "The Indian side has indeed expressed its willingness to do its part to help resolve the situation in Ukraine. We are grateful to our Indian friends for their willingness to cooperate and for the ideas they have shared."

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

#India has proposed a three-point ceasefire plan for 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦:
1️⃣ End attacks on energy and other infrastructure
2️⃣ Ensure unhindered movement of grain and energy through Black Sea ports
3️⃣ Refrain from attacking merchant ships in the Black Sea
https://t.co/TXjTG1XZb1

[Alexandra Sitenko @AVsitenko]

However, on October 5, Russian FM Lavrov stated that a return to a moratorium on strikes against ships—similar to the one in place under the previous grain deal—was impossible.

[Qasym-Jomart Toqayev @TokayevKZ]

I warmly congratulate Prime Minister @narendramodi on the remarkable milestone of 25 years as Head of Government.

Under his strong and wise leadership, India continues to advance its sustainable development, scientific and technological progress, while further strengthening its role on the global stage.

I highly value the close ties and strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and India. I am confident that through our joint efforts, we will elevate the Kazakh-Indian partnership to new heights.

[The Times of Central Asia @thetimesoca]

Kazakhstan is weighing a second major oil export route as it looks to diversify shipments, reduce reliance on existing corridors, and strengthen the resilience of its energy exports. Read more from @RobertMCutler
https://t.co/CoUarXsMeh