Awanxtra

World Platinum Investment Council
Shanghai Platinum Week
#Platinum #Palladium #Gold

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

HSBC Research has raised its price forecasts for most metals to reflect demand resilience, supply constraints, and the impact of a weaker USD.

#Platinum, copper, and rhodium remain its preferred metals, with 2026 target prices of USD2,513 per ounce, USD5.98 per pound, and USD10,125 per ounce, respectively.

Emily J. Thompson / intellectia
https://t.co/EdknomSAjB

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

Few people are likely aware that #platinum experienced a massive decimation of Above Ground Stocks in the 1890s.

This forcibly drove the price up sixfold.

Thomas Edison even offered a $20,000 reward for finding platinum—yes, that Edison, who invented the light bulb.

Because he was the instigator of that massive depletion of Above Ground Stocks.

應該很少人知道，鉑金曾經在 1890 年代出現過一次地上存量大虐殺。硬生生把價格往上擠六倍。愛迪生還為此端出 20,000 USD 尋鉑獎金，對，就是搞電燈的那位愛迪生。因為那次地上存量大虐殺始作俑者就是他。

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

72% of the world's #platinum comes from South Africa.

South Africa’s state-owned power utility, Eskom, has seen its restructuring plan hit a wall, with creditors refusing to buy in. This seemingly mundane corporate news is actually the “invisible driver” behind the recent surge in platinum prices.

The transmission mechanism is as follows: Failed Eskom reforms → Stalled transmission grid construction → Miners facing long-term power instability → Critical levels of Above Ground Stocks (AGS).

Major producers such as Valterra Platinum, Sibanye-Stillwater, and Impala Platinum have long suffered from power instability. If Eskom’s new structure cannot resolve funding and efficiency issues, future production forecasts will be at risk.

Caught between inflation expectations and the risk of supply chain disruptions, platinum’s “scarcity premium” is being redefined.

全球 72% 的鉑金礦物產自南非。

南非國營電力公司 Eskom 的重組計畫遭遇滑鐵盧，債權人拒絕買單。這條看似無聊的企業新聞，卻是近期鉑金價格狂飆背後的「隱形推手」。

反映路徑是：Eskom 改革失敗 → 輸電網建設停滯 → 礦商面臨長期供電不穩定 → 地上存量（AGS）告急。

南非未泰鉑業、斯班－靜水、英帕拉鉑業等大廠，長期以來深受電力不穩之苦。若 Eskom 的新架構無法解決資金與效率問題，未來產量預期將面臨風險。

在���膨預期與供應斷鏈風險的雙重夾擊下，鉑金的「稀缺性溢價」正在被重新定義。

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

The rally in #gold, #platinum, and other precious metals this year has been remarkable.

The essence of investing in precious metals lies in multi-generational long-term holding; I am accustomed to examining charts spanning one or two centuries, rather than focusing on short-term horizons.

Only from a multi-generational perspective can one comprehend why technical analysis may fail and why the Federal Reserve’s decisions are, in reality, of little consequence.

Please note that we have not yet entered a phase of explosive growth comparable to that of the 1900��1920 period.

今年黃金、鉑金，以及其他貴金屬的漲勢可圈可點。

投資貴金屬的重點在於跨世代長期持有，我習慣看一兩百年的圖，而不是短線。

只有跨世代，你才能理解為什麼技術分析會失靈，聯準會決議其實也不太重要。

請注意，我們還沒進入類似 1900 ~ 1920 年這樣的爆炸性發展。

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

GFEX: Fee Waivers and Reductions for Delivery, EFP, Warrant Transfer, Warrants as Margin, and Hedging
The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) hereby announces that, following due consideration, the Exchange will implement the following fee reduction and waiver measures from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026.

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

Let us examine the divergence in sentiment within the #platinum futures markets of the USA and China.

Remarkably, in December alone, the delivery volume of hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks in China reached 700 units.

In the passenger transport vehicle market, there were also 450 new manufacturing orders. These factors provide support for the platinum trend.

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

To those of you currently holding #platinum, do you realize what you are witnessing?

Since clear records began, annual rallies exceeding 50% can be counted on one hand.

Only four times!

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

This news reflects two trends in the #platinum market:

China's move to position platinum as a "new energy metal" has garnered international attention.

The West has recognized China's pricing power in the precious metals market.

Furthermore, the risk warning issued by GFEX last night has indeed cooled down the international platinum market. This serves as a case in point.

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

Breaking news: GFEX #platinum futures hit the daily limit again.

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

#Platinum is transforming the energy landscape.

German automotive giant Volkswagen plans to install a small-scale electrolyser system at its Poznań plant in Poland to supply hydrogen for a 1.5 MW gas burner. The project is expected to reduce fuel consumption by up to 30% and lower on-site carbon emissions.

Photo by Volkswagen / H2view

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

S&P Global Ratings expects the recent recovery in PGM prices to provide support for Valterra #Platinum potential earnings growth.

S&P Global Ratings states that the recovery in PGM prices is expected to carry through to 2027.

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

Ivanhoe Mines' Platreef mine is set to be one of the largest and lowest-cost 4E producers, with nickel and copper by-products.

Net of nickel and copper by-product credits, the Phase 2 life-of-mine total cash cost (AISC) for Platreef is estimated to be 599 USD/toz. Following the Phase 3 expansion, this is projected to fall further to 511 USD/toz.

The Platreef mine's low cash costs are primarily a result of its unique thick orebody, which enables economies of scale, as well as the high grades of nickel and copper acting as payable by-products.

Following the Phase 2 expansion, annual production is set to increase almost fivefold to over 460,000 ounces of 4E metals, plus approximately 9,000 tonnes of nickel and 6,000 tonnes of copper.

艾芬豪礦業 Platreef 礦有望成為規模最大且成本最低的 4E 生產商之一，並伴有鎳和銅副產品。

扣除鎳和銅副產品收益後，Platreef 二期礦山全壽命期的 4E 總現金成本（AISC）估計為 599 USD / toz。在三期擴建後，還可再降至 511 USD / toz。

Platreef 礦的低現金成本主要歸功於其獨特的厚大礦體（這實現了規模經濟），以及高品位的鎳和銅作為可計價副產品。

在二期擴建後，年產量幾乎增加五倍，達到超過 46 萬盎司的 4E 金屬，外加約 9,000 噸鎳和 6,000 噸銅。

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

According to the latest report released by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), investment demand for physical #platinum bars and coins in #China is expected to grow for the seventh consecutive year in 2026, reaching 14.1 tonnes.

Currently, China continues to lead the platinum market. Premiums remain sustained at 17%.

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

#Platinum has far more extensive applications than #gold.

Throughout the historical trajectory from 1735 to the present, platinum has traded at a premium to gold for the majority of the time.

We are currently situated in a value depression for platinum.

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

The World #Platinum Investment Council has entered into a strategic partnership with Chow Tai Seng.

This signing signifies that both parties will engage in in-depth collaboration focusing on the research and development of platinum investment products, market promotion, industry development, and cultural empowerment.

Platinum is gaining visibility.

世界鉑金投資協會與周大生簽訂戰略合作關係。

此次簽約，代表雙方將聚焦鉑金投資產品研發、市場推廣、產業建構與文化賦能，展開深度協作。

鉑金正在被看見。

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

Mining giants have also begun employing AI to assist their workforce.

Russian #platinum group metals giant #Nornickel has launched MetalGPT-1, a proprietary domain-specific language model built specifically for the metallurgy and mining industries.

Unlike universal models trained on general internet data, MetalGPT-1 is designed from the ground up to handle professional terminology, abbreviations, and complex technological processes. This reduces the rate of "hallucinations" and improves the quality of decisions made based on AI recommendations.

https://t.co/lIiidkNoVQ

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

For a long time, Italian parliamentarians have clamored to sell #gold to service debt; in the past, such talk usually ended without any follow-up.

But this time is quite peculiar.

It has actually startled the European Central Bank (#ECB) into issuing two consecutive significant statements (on December 3rd and December 9th). The ECB repeatedly emphasized that Italy's gold reserves belong to the Italian people, while essentially stating, "I (the ECB) do not know what you in Italy are up to, but I feel that arguing about this matter right now is highly inappropriate."

What puzzles me is:

1. Why cannot Italy decide for itself whether its gold should be held by the Central Bank or transferred to the Ministry of Finance?

2. Even if Italy is determined to sell its gold, why does the EU appear to be trying so hard to stop it? Are they afraid of crashing the market?

3. Previously, under the framework of the "Central Bank Gold Agreement" (CBGA), European central banks had clear regulations for gold sales. However, after the fourth agreement expired in 2019, the signatories did not renew it. If Italy really intends to sell gold, couldn't they simply invoke the CBGA clauses?

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

Will Australia be the next destination for platinum group metals (PGMs) mining?

Perth-based Chalice Mining has confirmed that its Gonneville project will be Australia's first primary PGMs mine. This follows a pre-feasibility study (PFS) that outlined a 23-year, two-phase open-pit mining operation with strong economics and expansion potential.

澳洲會是下一個鉑族金屬開採地嗎？

總部位於珀斯的查利斯礦業（Chalice Mining）已確認，其岡內維爾（Gonneville）計畫將成為澳洲首個原生鉑族金屬（PGM）礦場。先前，一項預可行性研究（PFS）概述了一個為期 23 年的兩階段露天開採業務，具有強勁的經濟效益和擴展空間。

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

"Gold has become much more of a speculative asset," said Hyun Song Shin, head of the BIS’s Monetary and Economic Department. "The past few quarters are the only time in at least the last 50 years in which #gold and #equities have entered what it calls 'explosive territory' simultaneously. Following its explosive phase, a bubble typically bursts with a sharp and swift correction, [though] corrections take place over variable and potentially long time frames."

Bastian Benrath-Wright / Bloomberg

https://t.co/sJgj2rVVtd

[Awanxtra @awanxtra]

Following a week of market activity, China's #PGMs market continues to maintain high premiums (as shown in the chart).

This positions the impressive annual gains of PGMs to potentially be sustained through the end of the year.

Looking ahead to #2026, Carsten Fritsch, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank, forecasts that #Platinum will rise to 1,800 USD / toz.

Meanwhile, the prevailing view in the Chinese market is that Platinum could touch 2,000 USD / toz next year.

經過一週洗禮，中國鉑族金屬市場仍然維持高溢價（如下圖）。

這讓鉑族金屬的優異年度漲幅有機會維持到年底。

展望 2026 年，德國商業銀行（Commerzbank）大宗商品分析師 Carsten Fritsch 認為鉑金將升至 1,800 USD / toz。至於中國市場普遍認為明年鉑金有望觸及 2,000 USD / toz。