aw 🪐

time | health | family | truth

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

“I had to write all the code before I could convince myself that I could solve every problem, then I wrote the paper.” - Satoshi Nakamoto

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

USA!!!!

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

.@elonmusk relentlessly stacking sats

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Another 29 sats to orbit!

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@MrBeast Congratulations Jimmy, no one more deserving of this ! Onwards!

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

Incredibly inspired by what @elonmusk and the entire team at @SpaceX have built.

I’m Deeply proud to have been an early investor in one of the most important companies ever founded.

I will forever be a fan, backer and supporter of this amazing company 🚀

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@Sara_Imari beautiful talk. thank you for sharing Sara

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

100

[mert @mert]

I think the biggest downside of saylor is not him selling or any ponzi mechanic

it's the fact that he's now 90% of all discourse around BTC, which crowds out the much more fun discourse on adoption, technology, and philosophy of the project

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@PenguinWeb3 And this is Gemini

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@PenguinWeb3 Mine

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@themarketradar Yep, ditto. Made lots on my private SpaceX equity through early rounds but the IPO process has been completely slanted against retail for all of the reasons you’ve mentioned.

We’ll see how long it takes for the system to change..

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@Justin_Bons @mert What matters is that AI found a bug. If there is one there are likely more, and not just in zec

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@RSNTinker @ThinkingUSD market cap yo

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@mikealfred buy the dip regardless..

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

that was insanely fast..

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

BREAKING NEWS: according to CloudFlare Radar Data, Agentic traffic has SURPASSED human traffic across the worldwide internet for HTML webpages.

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

I was overwhelmed by the amount of available, educational information once the internet became a thing.

With frontier models, my mind has absolutely exploded. Infinite, relevant, timely and
deep rabbit holes.

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

This is my take as well

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Clear the air My view on $MSTR

I own BTC via $IBIT since 69420
At a small allocation of my wealth. I prefer gold

I have been bearish MNAV of $MSTR since 11/20/2024. The MNAV has fallen massively and now rests at 1.09. That is NOT ridiculously rich at all.

However the company is pursuing a strategy which will likely keep pressure on MNAV going forward. That pressure is offering $STRC at a decent size discount to fair value. By selling STRC at par particularly like today when it is full to the brim with dividends the company is selling this security at a 1-3% discount to fair value. Honestly that's not a bad thing for the company to do given the modest discount to fair value and the high proceeds they are taking in. BUT it does harm the common shareholders in two ways. 1. The discount itself is paid by the common shareholders to the preferred holders and 2. The preferred dividend (given that BTC/the companies asset pays no yield) represents forward issuance or forward BTC sales which are bad for the company's shareholders

You may notice I've repeatedly said that the company is selling STRC at a discount. That explicitly means that the investor in STRC is getting to buy something cheap!!!! As an investor you have to like STRC. It's cheap! I am not a bear on STRC. I simply don't like it vs what it does to the common shareholders. My view on STRC is it is highly likely to generate pretty nice returns if BTC doesn't get crushed. Its risk is simple. BTC gets crushed and issuance liquidity for MSTR in all its forms falls and BTC sales become necessary to pay dividends. Fwiw that seems well prepared for given the fiat cash reserves the company has built up. So STRC is pretty sweet as a thing with probably 200bp per year of excess dividends vs fair with a substantial but unlikely left tail risk. BUT it's not good for shareholder MNAV

Let's jump into MNAV dynamics. 1.09X is not that interesting as a short AT ALL.

As long as the company has access to preferreds issaunce even at this 1-3% discount it can avoid issuing common shares or manage to issue just a bit.

There are literally NO arbs short MSTR long BTC today at current prices and no downward pressure likely from new arbs going short. Why would they at 1.09?

Could frustrated BTC investors with long equity positions in US equities (NDX) also sell their long MSTR such that it would go to an MNAV discount ? Sure. But with BTC anywhere within 40,000 of current spot the company has infinite flexibility to manage its issuance such that it won't trade at a sizable MNAV discount for much time. For instance let's say it traded at a .9MNAV while STRC traded at par. That would be the best arb of all time. Saylor could sell STRC and buy $MSTR back

Basically with BTC doing fine my picture of the company is a slow convergence to MNAV of 1.0 and ongoing STRC chilling at par.

The elephant in the room is the true believers in the common shares who still truly believe that the MNAV can massively expand back to its former glory or 2+.

That time has past. Saylor will sell infinite shares at 1.5 if he has the ability to. And there is essentially infinite capital to do the short MSTR long BTC arb at levels like that. The MNAV expansion is a delusion built on meme stock experience where "the faithful" can stick it to "the man". STRC and the growing dividend expense makes the arb even more attractive than ever.

Anyway that's where I stand.

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@Tradermayne interesting juxtaposition https://t.co/1mDwsH2EqC

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

1. there's no "forever"
2. the four year cycle is hopium, even though it can drive self fulfilling flows
3. the btc underperformance trend vs AI related assets is very long, not noise
4. the eth underperformance trend vs almost everything is overwhelmingly evident
5. something going down when it should be going up it's signal (crashing solo is very different than crashing due to macro conditions)
6. I expect the AI trend to continue for a long time, and BTC to continue underperforming => there are much faster horses offering higher convexity than BTC
7. A handful of crypto assets can perform very well regardless.

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society."

J. Krishnamurty

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

@timevalueofbtc $124,599 😎

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

I repeat, we will not see health restored until the leveraged comes Way down.

Ya'll are doing it to yourselves at this point..

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $700,000,000 worth of crypto longs liquidated in the past 2 hours.

[aw 🪐 @awertheim]

We're SO back!