9-5 jobs are comfort money. They give you just enough money to make it hard to leave. Then you buy a house, get a car, have kids. Then it's too much risk to leave the job.
Next thing you know, you blink, and you're 60.
The Bitcoin low for 2026 is in.
Those calling for and waiting for $30,000 to $40,000 were wrong and will be sidelined unless they chase.
As I said, the max drawdown I expected was 50-60%, not the 80-90% seen in past cycles.
$60,000 was a gift (52% down from the ATH), and it took a Binance "glitch," months of Jane Street manipulation, and plenty of shenanigans to get us there.
We got follow through on the PMI, and it is time for the main event: the full bull market.
The bull market correction is over.
$BTC
Bitcoin reached the local low on November 21st ($80.5k). Since then, it's been ranging between $84k-90k for more than a month.
$90k is key level to reclaim. If that happens -> $95k. Clean break above and $100ks.
Likely scenario imo. Bullish.
Gold new ATH today, up another $1T. Global money supply M2 YoY growth highest since Covid. Fed cutting. QE and liquidity rising. Yet Bitcoin is down, again. I wonder why...
Gold new ATH today, up another $1T. Global money supply M2 YoY growth highest since Covid. Fed cutting. QE and liquidity rising. Yet Bitcoin is down, again. I wonder why...
The Gamma Trap: 10 Days Until the December 26 Release Toward the $118K Power-Law Trend
Bitcoin is caught between two forces that operate on different clocks.
Long-term inevitability: the Power Law
Short-term suppression: options gamma
Bitcoin is trapped between two forces:
• Long-term mathematical inevitability (Power Law)
• Short-term mechanical suppression (options gamma)
The key difference is time. The Power Law does not expire.
Gamma does expire.
Gamma Decay Timeline
Dec 19: ~17% of total gamma expires → first loosening
Dec 26: ~47% of total gamma expires → structural reset
Power-Law Reality
At $85,879, Bitcoin trades 27.2% below its Power-Law fair value of $118,010.
This is not overvaluation. It is compression.
Why Price Is Pinned
• The $85,000 put wall acts as a gravity well
• Net gamma is −$117M (negative)
• Dealers must aggressively hedge downside below $85k
• Upside stalls below the $90,847 gamma flip due to missing positive gamma
Result: suppressed volatility and range-bound price.
The Countdown
T-3 Days (Dec 19)
Event: 17.2% of gamma (~$90M) expires
Effect: the $85k pin weakens; volatility begins to leak back in
T-10 Days (Dec 26)
Event: 46.6% of total gamma (~$243M) expires
Effect: the pin breaks; nearly half of dealer positioning disappears overnight
The Pivot
Historically, pin releases of this size mark the start of the next trend.
Bottom Line
The coil is tight, but is locked until December 26.
Until then, respect the $85k floor.
After that, the Great Unwind begins and the path toward the $118,010 fair value finally opens.
Let’s take a walk down memory lane and see where all those bold 2025 Bitcoin targets ended up.
• JPMorgan: 170,000
• VanEck: 180,000
• SChartered: 250,000
• Tom Lee: 250,000
• Robert Kiyosaki: 350,000
• BlackRock: 700,000
• Chamath: 500,000
• Michael Saylor: 1,000,000
• ARK Invest: 650,000
• Galaxy Digital: 400,000
• Pompliano: 500,000
• Max Keiser: 220,000
• Cathie Wood: 2,000,000
Bitcoin sits weakly at 88K with 24 days left in the year. Every one of these so-called “experts” and “gurus” missed the mark by a mile.
Baca candu yok….
Bitcoin akan kembali ATH dalam waktu dekat.
Ini adalah artikel berbayar zerohedge, Trada bisa lihat karena sudah subs. Terimakasih
Pengagum Bitcoin tidak akan melihat jatuhnya Bitcoin kecuali hanya sebagai kesempatan untuk Bitcoin capai rekor kembali.
Sering saya bilang, Bitcoin jatuh hanya isi bensin.
Kelonggaran kebijakan moneter, tumbuhnya adopsi institusi, dan kerumunan bullishnya retail tak akan melihat jatuhnya bitcoin sebagai sesuatu yang berbeda. Tidak juga kali ini.
Important Bitcoin Post: The mid-cycle shakeout is almost complete.
Many are convinced the bull run is over and a deep, long bear market is coming next.
Mr. Market has done a fantastic job to trick the herd.
When we pump soon, many stubborn people will be left on the sidelines if they do not humble themselves and buy back in.
I am expecting a fast move and recovery as there are a ton of people that sold and want to have long-term positions in Bitcoin right now that think the bull run is over.
They will scramble to get back in once it is abundantly clear that 2026 will be an extension of the bull market.
Bookmark this post and let's revisit it in 6 months and see what happens.
And don't say you were not warned.