One of my core problems with the U.S. Blockade of Iran is still fails to account for THE most fundamental of problems in this war:
Escalation Dominance.
We CAN’T strike Iranian power plants. Why? Escalation dominance. If we did, Iran would destroy the Gulf.
We CAN’T put boots on the ground. Why? Escalation dominance. Iran would destroy the Gulf.
So if push comes to shove and the economic situation in Iran truly becomes existential (it’s not close yet)… do we REALLY expect Iran to just sit there and take it? To NOT escalate?
Of course not. They will escalate, in a laddered manner, until they pull the final lever of destroying the Gulf. First, they will mine and shut down the Omani Route used for Project Freedom. After that, they will cut the undersea cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. If that doesn’t impose sufficient pressure, they will destroy critical economic infrastructure in the Gulf. And if that still fails to produce an end to the war, they will destroy water desalination to the countries that need it most in the Gulf.
This is the core problem with the United States continuing this war. Where the U.S. has no viable options to escalate the pressure, Iran has a multitude.
This is just an exercise in sunk cost and fantasy.
Trees don’t panic in the winter thinking, "Oh no, I’m not growing leaves, I’m a failure." They just rest and wait for spring. You are allowed to have a low-yield season without calling it a personal crisis.
This paragraph by Haruki Murakami hits hard:
“Once the storm is over, you won’t remember how you made it through, how you managed to survive. You won’t even be sure, whether the storm is really over. But one thing is certain. When you come out of the storm, you won’t be the same person who walked in. That’s what this storm’s all about.”
People who spend long periods of time at home and slowly lose the desire to go outside often think they're just resting. But psychologically, many of them are experiencing something called mental rumination. It's a state where the brain starts slowing down while the number of thoughts inside keeps increasing and the motivation to do anything slowly disappears. The mind gets stuck in the past, worries about the future and burns itself out. This isn't laziness, it's a nervous system stuck in survival mode. And the longer it lasts, the more distant normal life begins to feel. And the difficult part is that you usually can't escape it through one massive burst of motivation. And sometimes,recovery starts with just one small step.
I've been running the articles that go viral on X through an AI detector and about 80% of them are completely AI generated.
I don't think people has grasped just how much AI slop they are getting exposed to on a daily basis.
🚨 S&P 500 REPEATING DOT COM CRASH SCENARIO
Just look at the chart, we are perfectly repeating 2000 Dot Com Bubble fractal
The top 10 stocks now control 40% of the entire index - concentration that has already exceeded the dot-com peak, when the top 10 held 27%
In the last 28-session rally, just 10 stocks drove 69% of the gains
Retail investors funneled $700 billion into equities since January - five times faster than during the dot-com bubble
And the buyers chasing semiconductor stocks are already planning their exit at the first sign of slowing momentum
That's exactly how even the strongest rallies collapse
The dot-com Nasdaq fell 78% and took 15 years to recover its high
The AI bubble has better fundamentals, but better fundamentals didn't save anyone in 2000 either
Do you really think $700 billion of anxious retail money holds when momentum stalls?
Save this. Come back in 18 months
Charles Dickens fought his depression by walking through London at night. One October he set out at 2 in the morning and walked 30 miles, all the way to his country home in Kent. In 1860 he wrote about why it worked. It took psychology another 150 years to catch up.
Dickens called his bad spells "spectres." They came back every time he started a new novel and sometimes hung on for months. His mood would fall apart, his sleep would collapse, and the only thing that pulled him out was walking.
He explained his method in an essay called "Night Walks," published on July 21, 1860 in his weekly magazine All the Year Round. He had tried fighting his insomnia from bed and lost. So he changed the plan. The fix, he wrote, was "getting up directly after lying down, and going out, and coming home tired at sunrise." A worried mind cannot fix itself by worrying more in bed. You have to get up and move.
Most nights he walked 12 to 20 miles. A friend called it "violent walking." Dickens wrote that on these walks his wandering self had "many miles upon miles of streets in which it could, and did, have its own solitary way."
Today, walking is one of the most powerful tools doctors have against depression. In 2012 a team of researchers pulled together eight high-quality studies of walking as a depression treatment. The effect was as strong as the antidepressants doctors actually prescribe.
The biggest test came from Duke University. The SMILE study took 202 adults with serious depression and split them into four groups: supervised exercise, home exercise, the drug Zoloft, or a placebo pill. After 16 weeks, the people who exercised did just as well as the people on Zoloft. A 2024 review of 75 studies covering 8,636 patients confirmed it. Walking should be one of the first things doctors try.
The reason is the thing Dickens stumbled onto in the dark. Depression runs on rumination, the looping bad thoughts that grind people down during the worst stretches. In 2015 Stanford researchers scanned people's brains before and after a 90-minute walk in a quiet park. The walkers had less activity in a part of the brain called the subgenual prefrontal cortex. That spot, deep behind your forehead, is the brain's worry loop. After the walk, the worry loop got quieter. The walkers said they felt less stuck inside their own heads. The brain scans agreed.
A walking body shuts up a noisy mind. The street takes attention, the walking rhythm fills the head, and the dark spells lose their grip. Dickens called the streets his cure because they gave his brain somewhere else to be. The science 150 years later says he had it right. Depression hates a brain that is moving.
78 years ago, 800,000 Palestinians were expelled from their homes. Britain made it possible.
Today, Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Britain made it possible.
78 years of the Nakba - and 78 years of British complicity in crimes against the Palestinian people.
And this is why you pay $30,000 a year for a Bloomberg terminal.
Founder of the Bloomberg Terminal explaining here the functions.
The most elite information and analytical tools are still nowhere near the hands of the everyday public.
"We have indisputable evidence that Ghaddafi is giving his troops Viagra so they can mass rape girls and babies. We need to bomb them now!"
*few months later as Libya has been bombed*
"Yeah we made up that Viagra mass rape stuff. Anyway, Israel has the right to defend itself."
The area near the mouth of the mississippi river used to be the most biodiverse waters on earth. But in just 3 generations of industrialization, it's now considered a dead zone for marine life
Over the past 6 months it's come out that:
- The CIA killed JFK
- 2 9/11 hijackers were CIA assets
- US gov't blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
- The CIA director met with Epstein 3x's after he was convicted of child sex crimes
And life goes on like nothing ever happened...