Axey

tmt investor
if you're gonna play the game, play it well
not financial advice

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@viggy_krishnan @CousinGraig Isn’t it more levered to open source at this point (ie total token volume growth)

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@garrytan All the CPU names trade at 100x P/E+

Is there still room for multiple expansion?

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@jukan05 DAUs are really this low?

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@ParadisLabs Ehh - you never know. OAI has shipped some beautiful, simple products.

Better way to play this trade imo is bet on the picks and shovels. Higher reward lower risk

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@ethanrkho @Lihong062 Pretty hard disagree. If you were 3x / 4x levered semis you would have blown up like Leopold.

You can be levered, but you need some factor idio diversification otherwise you are gonna get wiped by any mid-to-big macro news (ie rates or Iran war)

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@nlw Goes to show that harnesses > models. This was not the sentiment less than a month ago

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@jukan05 Still so far behind leading labs in ARR. <0.5% MC by revenue?

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@ContrarianCurse Just feels like even if OS is right behind, the breadth of opportunity unlock that the frontier is getting across HC, finance, law and others is so vast. Hard to see them disappoint in the LR

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@ThematicTrader Felt like he used to be able to pump the stock during earnings calls but that’s no longer the case. Turns out saying “compute = revenue” 100x every call doesn’t help.

Market don’t trust papa Jensen

[Axey @axeyLLC]

As market starts digesting just how good and token efficient Opus 5.5 is - I believe we will start rallying up. Position accordingly $TQQQ $SOXL

Only last stepping blocks are Anthropic S1 and oil prices. Let’s see …

[Axey @axeyLLC]

Couldn’t you argue that although the inputs are going up (GPUs), we have yet to see profitability of outputs (tokens) show up.

We need OAI / Anthropic S1 releases to answer that. For all we know, the subsidization of tokens could be astronomical and pricing wars -> hard monetization path forward.

[Axey @axeyLLC]

Would expect @Meta to be down 5%+ on any announcement of personal agent competition.

Will likely see this come from OAI / GOOG / Ant as soon as the coming days.

Whether they actually have the distribution, UI, etc to make the product better is another question.

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@Expedia @Muse Partner or die? @bookingcom wya?

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@atelicinvest I also have one question

how many use cases could OpenClaw reliably and consistently complete?

[Axey @axeyLLC]

Yep, called it. Expect many people to start using Opus 5.5 as their daily driver, at least until the new Fable model releases …

[Axey @axeyLLC]

Feed is very bullish OAI and bearish Anthropic. Let's see how quickly this reverses. The tale of the tape has always been narrative reversals (first OAI was ahead, then it was dead, and now it is a monopoly again).

Just wait for Fable 5.2 people ...

[Axey @axeyLLC]

The $SNDK move was pretty expected if you've been paying any attention the markets.

Personal agents require far more intensive memory storage to retain all the information they are collecting (all the connectors everyone signed up for). The result = far greater NAND demand -> future ASP increases.

The stock did not move alongside the CPU trade yesterday, only makes sense we see a big move today.

[Axey @axeyLLC]

lol. No. Easy short

[Consensus Media @ConsensusGurus]

*EXPEDIA RISES TO SESSION HIGHS, SEEN AS MAJOR WINNER IN AGENTIC ECONOMY

[Axey @axeyLLC]

@Glassesman88 Lots of the boring tedious work that your avg American doesn't want to do after work

Calendar invites, booking reservations / flights, shopping, etc. Can definitely see more use cases popping up as underlying model capabilities expand

[Axey @axeyLLC]

As more integrations get added to @Muse , the product naturally gets stickier and it gets harder for people to switch to Instinct or anyone else

This is a classic land grab, and every connector is another switching cost. Meta is thus best off keeping Muse free for a long time, adding connectors and features, and only charging once it's very hard to switch off

Hard to see Instinct / others compete with this strategy

[Axey @axeyLLC]

Phenomenal example of how testing products early on can be a real competitive advantage in investing

Don’t be a boomer tech PM who doesn’t know how to use the product.

If you used Instinct / Muse earlier you knew the OpenClaw-esque moment would come