Axis Balance

Macro & Crypto Cycle Research
Structural Trends | Liquidity | Capital Rotation
Long-Term Positioning
Not financial advice.

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

We’ve discussed many times that global markets move in large secular cycles.

Over the last 15 years, financial assets – equities, bonds, and other paper-based instruments – dominated global capital flows, supported by cheap liquidity, low interest rates, and aggressive monetary expansion.

But today, it is becoming increasingly clear that this cycle may be approaching its later stages.

Full macro breakdown on Substack👇

https://t.co/38n4TAhA8x

#DXY #Commodities #macro

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@BullTheoryio History is the best teacher, especially in mid-cycle years.

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@NoLimitGains Expecting a 20-25% correction this year, just a reset before further upside.

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@Hedgeye History teaches best, particularly in mid-cycle years.
My view: a correction this year ~20-25% - a reset before further upside.
#NDX #NDQ

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@KobeissiLetter History is the best teacher.
Especially in midterm years.

My view: We get a correction this year - a reset before further upside.

$NDX 👇

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@wallstreetbets Late Cycle. Classic 👇
https://t.co/ZUf3U1JjcS

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

Late-cycle euphoria is back.

The real S&P 500 (CPI-adjusted) is once again trading in a late-cycle environment – driven by liquidity, AI leadership, and concentrated optimism.

History shows this is usually the phase where investors become most confident right before real returns start stagnating.

In the 1960s and late 1990s:
• liquidity expanded
• leadership narrowed
• valuations stretched
• inflation eventually destroyed real returns for years

The result?

24 years of sideways real returns after the 1960s peak.
16 years after the dot-com era.

Most investors focus only on nominal prices.
But inflation changes the entire picture.

Late cycle doesn’t mean the top is tomorrow.
It means risk/reward becomes increasingly asymmetric.

Full breakdown on Substack 👇

https://t.co/EjXtrIXFSb

#SPX #stocks #macro #inflation #AI

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@Barchart Expecting at least a bounce here.
$XAG 👇

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

I don't think this is the cycle top.

As I've been saying since the beginning of the year, I expect a 20–25% correction closer to Q4. That would be a normal part of the cycle rather than the start of a major bear market.

My base case remains one more push higher after that correction, with the final cycle top forming somewhere in 2028-2029.

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@NoLimitGains It's getting more interesting.
https://t.co/IReDsFodYa

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

A month ago everyone expected a breakout.
Now everyone expects $50k.
My base case:
• Sweep February lows
• Panic spike lower
• Rally back to the 50W EMA

The market’s job is to frustrate the majority.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@Tolimanu Great chart.
The consolidation could be prolonged and become more complex. Watching the 200-day EMA.
$SILVER

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@hajiyev_rashad Watching the 200-day EMA as the next key level. Expecting at least a bounce here. $XAG 👇

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@silvertrade Watching the 200-day EMA as the next key level. Expecting at least a bounce here.
$Silver 👇

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@KobeissiLetter Posted this chart a few days ago, and it's starting to play out nicely.
https://t.co/IReDsFodYa

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

A month ago everyone expected a breakout.
Now everyone expects $50k.
My base case:
• Sweep February lows
• Panic spike lower
• Rally back to the 50W EMA

The market’s job is to frustrate the majority.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@NorthstarCharts Posted this chart a few days ago.
Watching the 200-day EMA as the next key level.
https://t.co/AujiwZ05CH

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

The long-term target is clear.

The short-term picture is frustration.

$Silver has a long history of grinding sideways after explosive rallies, exhausting participants before the real move begins.

This cycle may be no different.

Full silver cycle analysis on Substack 👇

https://t.co/nI3vE6774j

#XAG #SILVER #Commodities

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@BullTheoryio $SILVER
Local support has been lost. Watching the 200-day EMA as the next key level 👇
https://t.co/AujiwZ05CH

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

The long-term target is clear.

The short-term picture is frustration.

$Silver has a long history of grinding sideways after explosive rallies, exhausting participants before the real move begins.

This cycle may be no different.

Full silver cycle analysis on Substack 👇

https://t.co/nI3vE6774j

#XAG #SILVER #Commodities

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@KobeissiLetter It's getting more interesting by the day. Posted this chart a few days ago 👇
https://t.co/fzwWfiSTcL

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

ETH update:

The structure is becoming clearer.

So far, every bounce has produced another lower high inside the channel.
No breakout. No trend reversal.

Now all eyes on key support.

If buyers defend this area and reclaim momentum —>
possible bear market bottom.

But if support breaks and price accepts below,
this entire structure starts looking like distribution before another leg lower.

The next move matters.

#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@Washigorira It's getting interesting. Posted this chart a few days ago, and it's starting to play out nicely
https://t.co/fzwWfiSTcL

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

ETH update:

The structure is becoming clearer.

So far, every bounce has produced another lower high inside the channel.
No breakout. No trend reversal.

Now all eyes on key support.

If buyers defend this area and reclaim momentum —>
possible bear market bottom.

But if support breaks and price accepts below,
this entire structure starts looking like distribution before another leg lower.

The next move matters.

#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@CryptoBullet1 Great chart, man, as always 🤝
Do you think the bottom could be in June, like it was in the last bear market in 2022?
https://t.co/fzwWfiSTcL

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

ETH update:

The structure is becoming clearer.

So far, every bounce has produced another lower high inside the channel.
No breakout. No trend reversal.

Now all eyes on key support.

If buyers defend this area and reclaim momentum —>
possible bear market bottom.

But if support breaks and price accepts below,
this entire structure starts looking like distribution before another leg lower.

The next move matters.

#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@Danny_Crypton That will be too easy.
https://t.co/IReDsFodYa

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

A month ago everyone expected a breakout.
Now everyone expects $50k.
My base case:
• Sweep February lows
• Panic spike lower
• Rally back to the 50W EMA

The market’s job is to frustrate the majority.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

@benjamincowen Totally agree with Ben.
Here’s my TOTAL2ES/BTC chart for context.
It really shows the bigger picture, beyond the hype.
https://t.co/iP7P1CK1uf

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

Bad news for those still waiting for the Altcoin Supercycle.

Macro conditions, weakening economic data, and Bitcoin’s cyclical structure continue to favor BTC dominance - not broad altcoin strength.

ALTs never confirmed a real altseason this cycle.

Now ALTs (excluding stablecoins)/BTC is approaching a major multi-year support zone.

Hold that zone - or final capitulation comes next.

#crypto #altcoins #BTC #altseason

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

A month ago everyone expected a breakout.
Now everyone expects $50k.
My base case:
• Sweep February lows
• Panic spike lower
• Rally back to the 50W EMA

The market’s job is to frustrate the majority.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

[Axis Balance @Axis_Balance]

$Bitcoin still below the 50W EMA.

Same resistance. Same trap zone.
Until BTC reclaims it on a weekly close, structure remains bearish.

My base case over the next few months:
more volatility, failed breakouts, and another test of lower liquidity zones before a real cycle reset.

Narratives change fast.
Cycles don’t.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto