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Traditional SaaS is dead.
I asked Claude to vibe code a Docusign replacement.
6 hours and 450k lines of code later it built a drag-and-drop PDF signer, initials stamps, and a very satisfying “signature complete” animation.
So, the first 45 contracts we used it for auto-selected governing law at random. Every agreement is void. We lost $473K in bookings and I have in-person courts dates in 18 countries over the next week.
But, man, was the dynamic completion checkmark graphic sick.
Of course that's your contention. You're a first-time SaaS bear. You just got finished listening to some podcast, Dario on Dwarkesh, probably. Now you think it’s the end of white collar work and seat-based pricing is screwed. You're gonna be convinced of that til tomorrow when you get to “Something Big is Happening”. Then you’ll install ClawdBot on a Mac Mini, vibe code a dashboard on top of a postgres database and say we’re all just a couple ralph loops away from building a Salesforce competitor. That’s gonna last until next week when you discover context graphs, and then you're gonna be talking about how the systems of record will be disintermediated by an agentic layer and reposting OAI marketing graphics.
“Well, as a matter of fact, I won't, because ultimately the application layer is just ….”
The application layer is just business logic on top a CRUD database. You got that from Satya’s appearance on the BG2 pod, December 2024, right? Yeah, I saw that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us? Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter? Or...is that your thing? You get into the replies of anyone posting a SaaS ticker. You watch some podcast and then pawn it off as your own idea just to impress some VCs and embarrass some anon who’s long SaaS? See the sad thing about a guy like you is in a couple years you're gonna start doing some thinking on your own and you're gonna come up with the fact that there are two certainties in life. One: don't do that. And two: you dropped thirty grand on Mac Minis and LLM API calls to come to the same conclusion you could’ve got for free by following a handful of VC accounts.
I got to have dinner with Massimo Bottura at his incredible restaurant in Modena a couple years ago. He said something that’s stuck with me: there are only two styles of cuisine in the world, Chinese/French & Japanese/Italian. The first is all about technique and layers. The second is all about quality ingredients and simplicity.
I’d cancel your AG1 subscription. They just completed a clinical trial and the results show no clinical benefit.
This has been obvious for years. AG1 has no real product substance and is fundamentally an influencer heist.
Two simple alternatives (75% and 56% less $), outperform AG1 in randomized clinical trials.
Two simple mono-ingredient alternatives that outperform AG1:
1. Chicory inulin 12 g daily ($20/mo)
2. Resistant starch 30 g daily for 12 weeks ($35/mo)
AG1 is not worth $79/mo.
AG1 study results (4-weeks, N=30):
+ No significant changes in blood biomarkers compared to placebo (CBC, CMP, lipids).
+ No statistically significant improvement in digestive quality-of-life scores (p = 0.058).
+ No significant metabolic or inflammatory biomarker benefits of any kind within the scope of what was measured in the trial.
+ Only small shifts in microbiome taxa but clinically irrelevant at this stage.
+ The intervention did not increase microbiome diversity compared to placebo. Alpha diversity was unchanged, and the taxa changes seen were only from pre- to post-analysis within each group. Between-group differences were limited, and the placebo actually showed similar or even potentially larger shifts. This means the observed changes fall within normal placebo-driven variability, not a real treatment effect. No global microbiota shifts were detected.
Chicory inulin 12 g in constipation patients
+ 12 g of chicory inulin daily for 4 weeks (compared to maltodextrin placebo)
+ Global microbiota shifts: enrichment in butyrate-producing Bifidobacterium and Anaerostipes, and depletion of the pro-inflammatory Bilophila.
+The effect was seen by comparing intervention vs placebo in a cross-over setting, a very rigorous type of clinical analysis in which each person serves as their own control, eliminating a lot of individual random noise.
+ The trial also met its primary objective by improving constipation symptoms in the targeted patient group.
Resistant starch daily 30g for 12 weeks in older adults
+ Significant increase in Bifidobacterium in both middle-aged and elderly participants, with an increase in the beneficial microbiome byproduct butyrate, and reductions in Proteobacteria (including inflammatory Escherichia–Shigella) in the elderly.
+ Resistant starch also significantly reduced blood glucose, and produced greater reductions in blood insulin and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in the elderly group.
Sequoia just called the end of an entire go-to-market era and most SaaS companies won’t realize what hit them for 18 months.
Product-led growth was built on one assumption: humans would try the software. The entire playbook since 2010 optimized for human discovery. Beautiful landing pages. Frictionless free trials. Viral invite loops. Slack, Dropbox, Zoom, Calendly. $200B+ in market cap created by winning the user’s first 5 minutes.
None of that matters if an agent is picking the software.
Claude doesn’t care about your hero image. It can’t be impressed by your Dribbble awards. It’s reading documentation, parsing user reviews, checking API reliability, and matching features to use case. All the surface-level polish that convinced lazy humans to click “sign up” becomes irrelevant.
The new PLG funnel isn’t landing page → free trial → activation → conversion.
It’s agent query → documentation scan → feature match → recommendation.
Which means the new moat looks completely different. You don’t need the best onboarding. You need the best documentation. You don’t need viral loops. You need structured data that agents can parse. You don’t need a beautiful UI for the first session. You need an API that an agent can actually call.
The companies that won PLG hired designers and growth hackers. The companies that win agent-led growth will hire technical writers and developer relations engineers.
And here’s the part nobody’s pricing in yet: agents don’t have loyalty. They don’t have switching costs. They’ll recommend Supabase today and something better tomorrow if the documentation is cleaner or the pricing is more transparent. The stickiness that made PLG so powerful, the network effects and learned behavior, doesn’t transfer.
Sequoia is telling you the entire distribution layer is being rewritten. The question is whether your product is optimized for human attention or machine parsing. Most are built for the wrong audience.
@SamaHoole I love how dairy gets a free pass because “rain falls anyway.” By that logic, deforestation doesn’t count either because “trees would’ve grown anyway.” Green vs blue water is a real distinction - but you can’t swap definitions mid-thread and call it a conclusion.
We've talked a lot about this on the Pod, but the Great SaaS Meltdown has started and there's no going back.
What exactly is happening?
In short, hi growth, low/no profitability SaaS is no longer a winning strategy because the big question mark is the durability of that growth in the short term and, because of AI, the lack of profits in the long term. Every SaaS company has sold the dream (to investors and employees) that they will growth quickly now, and harvest lots of cash later. With AI, this assumption may be completely out the window.
Now the threshold question is whether their growth will be overtaken by a much cheaper AI-developed solution?
If you are a venture supported SaaS startup and are a legacy Heuristics+APIs+CRUD product, it is likely that a new AI oriented workflow is coming for you.
Investors in private markets can see this now and think that money to fund short term growth will not be rewarded. Investors in public markets no longer believe long term profitability is possible. They would rather pivot into something they think is more resilient.
This is a change in the risk calculus that has existed for the past 15 years and why the chart below is the chart below.
Good luck to all the players!
@ObiUzi @shaunmmaguire Socrates wasn’t offered exile by his jurors, he was asked to suggest a punishment, but in the end he was just sentenced to death with no alternative option. One of those usual false assertions meant to elicit a “wow I did not know that” but which is in fact simply untrue.