You really aren't bullish enough on #Bitcoin
All of your existing models for Bitcoin are based on data that is now completely obsolete.
Where it goes from here is anyone's guess.
Your favorite chart squigglers and quad four enthusiasts are relying on data from a period of time where a TINY fraction of global capital had access to Bitcoin.
Few people realize that everything has now changed.
Historically, Bitcoin has never broken through the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level before the halving.
Well, it just blew the doors right off that level.
Market timing geniuses are left sobbing into their rapidly devaluing sacks of fiat, desperately hoping for a pull-back.
Let this be a warning.
It's the first of many models to be destroyed now that BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. are laying on the bid 24/7.
Rumor has it OTC desks have setup makeshift boiler rooms to speed dial whales and beg them for sub-$100K BTC.
Meanwhile TRILLIONS in investment capital sits frozen on the sidelines, unable to move for the next 60 days.
Why, you ask?
Registered Investment Advisors have a 90+ day waiting period before they can allocate to new investment products.
RIAs are watching Bitcoin run, twitching like greyhounds in the race traps, waiting to secure a position for their clients.
We are likely going to see RIA inflows hit at the same time as the halving.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is rocketing even more than Bitcoin.
It's up 63% in the past 3 months compared to 46% for BTC.
But a MSTR pump is just a delayed Bitcoin pump.
@Saylor will soon be selling more MSTR shares and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds.
But that's not all...
With this performance, there's a chance that MicroStrategy could end up in the S&P500.
If that happens, MSTR will receive 10's of billions in passive flows from index investors.
Much of which will ultimately flow into spot Bitcoin as Saylor continues his genius strategy.
Bottom line: Even the hardcore Vanguard Bogleheads will soon be stacking #Bitcoin by way of MicroStrategy.
Just one more thing that isn't priced in.
As all of this unfolds, it's important to keep in mind how the Bitcoin price is actually set.
It isn't tethered to earnings, new product developments, etc.
Its price is only limited by the understanding of the people buying and selling.
Some of us understand how scarce it is, and have already priced it at $1 million+ per coin.
If the market suddenly shifted their views towards ours, there's nothing holding BTC back from going to $500K+ virtually overnight.
What could make that happen?
For now, most people still view BTC as a trade.
Not the ultimate asset to accumulate.
But as a thought experiment, imagine if a major nation state like Saudi Arabia made it clear that they were stacking Bitcoin with their profits.
That they aren't looking to trade in and out, but rather create a multi-generational Bitcoin endowment.
Perception would shift drastically overnight.
Who would sell their BTC for a mere $100K when they know Saudi Arabia is going to pour in decades worth of oil profits?
The same shift could happen if corporations, major billionaires, etc. started publicly denominating their success in Bitcoin.
Jeff Bezos just unloaded $4 Billion in Amazon stock a few months after he was seen partying with Michael Saylor in St. Tropez.
Did Saylor orange pill another whale? Who knows.
But one thing's for sure: We're on a knife's edge.
Only a few headlines away from a shift in perception that would bring drastically higher price levels.
Plan accordingly 🐂
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. And if you ask me where we are standing today, I’d say that we might be in one of those important weeks.
Few things for the week:
-Biden officially dropped out of the presidential campaign.
-Trump will speak at the Bitcoin2024 conference on July 27. Rumors are he may even announce a US $BTC strategic reserve.
-Another thing to note is Trump might also be considering BlackRock CEO Larry Fink for Treasury Secretary.
-After Elon Musk changed his X profile picture to include laser eyes, people also started to speculate that he may also be attending the Bitcoin conference in Nashville next week. Got to be careful with those kinds of rumors but if it does, then it should be well appreciated by crypto land.
-This week is also an important one macro wise. The first release of the Q2 GDP data will be announced on Thursday. Forecast expects a 1.9% increase QoQ. Further, PCE data will also be out on Friday and forecasts expects a 0.2% increase MoM.
-Net inflows into the $BTC spot ETF keeps printing new ATH since the past week. A good indicator that TradFi is showing a lot of interest in crypto, even despite the recent FUD.
-$ETH spot ETFs are also expected to go live tomorrow. I am excited for this launch and curious to see how much interest they will generate.
-Charts on the major looks super bullish (while equities are weak). We clearly see that $SOL continues to dominate. But also worth noting that $AVAX printed a big >10% green candle yesterday.
-Best performers of the last 7 days in the top 100 coins includes a few memes (MEW: +120% & WIF: +47%), but also cool to see HNT on the list (+36%) as well as CORE (a good BTC Beta), up 34%.
-Also worth noting that DEX to CEX spot trade volume also just made a new ATH. A good reminder that DeFi is slowly taking over and that the real crypto game is happening on-chain.
when this coin launches all the KOLs will suddenly try to act like memecoins are over and act like parralelization is the most ground breaking thing they’ve ever seen and try to psyop us into buying their bags that they bought for 1/100th public valuation lol
There is no rotation out of memes
For a simple reason: the average memecoin investor LOVES investing in memes & is having FUN doing so
He doesn’t have any interest in white papers
Memecoins form a separate asset class with their own type of investors, and they’re not rotating
Stocks are at all time highs. Long rates topped. Dollar, topped as well. Bitcoin is at 66K. The world economy is growing. Powell is dovish. Central banks are about to start cutting rates. QT tapering is about to start.
And you guys decided the bull market is over because you bought the wrong shitcoins, imagine the yield curve inversion signals recession, and believe rate cuts are bearish.
Eth is at 3100, Bitcoin is at 51,000, and people are more excited about hackathons, meet ups, and new tech.
This is going to be a very different cycle than the last one..
#Bitcoin not moved in over 6 months by realized cap(%):
• At $16K: 80%
• At $29K: 71%
• At $51K: 63% (Current)
Previous cyclical tops:
• 2021: 15%
• 2018: 5%
• 2014: 5%
We have a long way to reach the cyclical top.
https://t.co/YN0lAHwZPg
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