axin33

分享投资与思考！

[axin33 @b2znf]

现在的中国和日本70年代有很多相似性，而日本借由石油危机，开启了新兴产业大跃进的10年长牛。

[Harrison Kinsley @Sentdex]

Zai was gracious enough to give me a key to test out GLM 5.2. I used it on a few simple tasks and quickly realized this model is on another level.

I committed to using GLM 5.2 solely for the weekend and yesterday on everything from simple data analysis, random queries, side projects, and real work, and I can honestly say this is the first open model that I could comfortably replace Opus 4.8/GPT 5.5 with. It’s THAT good. When I say everything, I mean everything. I never needed to fallback to GPT 5.5 or Opus 4.8. This really blew my mind.

I was unable to find any task where I knew GPT 5.5 or Opus 4.8 could solve, but GLM 5.2 could not, and I actually found a few cases where GLM 5.2 was better. I am not trying to overhype anything here. It's just my actual experience with this model. It was of course only 3ish days of usage, maybe cracks would form in time, but the perf is staggering imo.

I see it's an "inferior" model on the benchmarks even Zai has shared, but I am not so sure and I think this is the first time I've experienced that with an open model. I am not saying it's necessarily better, but I believe it's a replacement that you could run on-prem, which is crazy to me.

It was to the point where I was double triple quadruple checking that I wasn't accidentally running Opus or GPT. I ran thru both Hermes and my own custom coding agent harness with extremely great success.

I cannot believe this is only a 754B model that's also an open MIT licensed model. Do not sleep on this one, and definitely try it out.

Get it locally if you can!

Can I find a way to run it locally? That’s a different question, but I will be trying to get it done because this model is epic.

[axin33 @b2znf]

@Mimiwftt 姐，多休息啦！

[Mistery @Mimiwftt]

主力提前炒作中报业绩。
高位的要谨慎，调整充分的储能电池等更有性价比。

[axin33 @b2znf]

@Mimiwftt 陆家嘴论坛大佬开始讲话

[tphuang @tphuang]

China's electrification of HDT sector continues unabated. It increased to 30821 unit in May, 2nd highest month ever (behind only the Dec rush b4 subsidy changes).

We are now solidly in the 30+% range every month. I don't know why the Chinese govt keeps saying dumb things like 40% by 2030 when eHDT penetration will be well over 50% soon.

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

SpaceX上市大涨之前说的安全期和太空经济板块怎么看？Spcx昨晚大涨，市值突破2.5万亿美金，之前6月1号https://t.co/oqk8qsoSXD聊到：SpaceX上市后两个月是安全期，低流通+指数纳入能有一波行情，然后业务预期也很好，也算是得到了印证。这两天想了下对于安全期再修正下：
1）7月7号进入指数前后是是安全期；
2）7月中参与IPO的散户可以无惩罚卖出，上周聊到https://t.co/9IKo0xUCk2现在各个IPO认购券商平台都设置了翻转期，30天之内卖出的散户会有惩罚措施。
3）7月底Q2财报前尽量维持股价在IPO价格的30%以上以完成绩效，第一次可以多解锁10%的份额。

而对于近期太空经济板块，个人看法是：
1）也是上周六聊到的SpaceX成功是长期利好整个生态（更便宜的发射、更多卫星上天，需求扩张）。

2）虽然上周五spcx在ipo当天太空经济板整体大跌，但换个角度SpaceX的市值越往上走事实上也是打开了整个产业的市值天花板、想象力天花板。

3）SpaceX之外，有真实订单、清晰路径、执行力强的太空经济板块公司短期应该也会被带动起来，长期也能继续分化跑赢。

[axin33 @b2znf]

泰晶科技6月1日说的时候，刚好是一个阶段低点，现在又要创新高了

[axin33 @b2znf]

NDK位于AI产业链上游元器件层，高频晶振为数据中心、光模块和AI服务器提供不可或缺的时钟同步功能，已获1.6T产品认证并进入英伟达等核心生态。中国对标公司是泰晶科技，它在超高频真基频技术上已超越NDK，但NDK在品牌积淀、汽车电子市占率（全球第一）和海外渠道网络方面仍具显著护城河。

[axin33 @b2znf]

石家庄现在6月居然下冰雹！！

[axin33 @b2znf]

日前，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）正式确认了厄尔尼诺现象的存在。NOAA的公告称，有63%的概率表明，该现象将在今年深秋至初冬期间急剧增强。气象学家预测，本轮厄尔尼诺可能达到甚至超越1997年至1998年发生的超强厄尔尼诺。曾引发全球性的热浪洪涝干旱龙卷风和野火等灾害，造成上百亿美元的损失

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

New like animation on 𝕏 to celebrate the SpaceX IPO

[axin33 @b2znf]

日前，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）正式确认了厄尔尼诺现象的存在。NOAA的公告称，有63%的概率表明，该现象将在今年深秋至初冬期间急剧增强。气象学家预测，本轮厄尔尼诺可能达到甚至超越1997年至1998年发生的超强厄尔尼诺。曾引发全球性的热浪洪涝干旱龙卷风和野火等灾害，造成上百亿美元的损失

[黄金周期观测（AuCycleWatch）★gmy @hcjhcj666]

【短期真的别搞金银了，小金属正在走独立行情】

钨、钼、稀土、钽，全部逆势涨价，相关个股走势甩开其他有色好几条街。

基础有色这阶段尽量别碰。我今天开盘竞价直接清掉所有铜，切到了钨和钼。

目前只持有：稀土、钨、钼。

[axin33 @b2znf]

通胀预期，优先看上游材料

[axin33 @b2znf]

@tzwqbest 买了西部支持一波

[axin33 @b2znf]

@hayyyyy614171 @tzwqbest 你deep seek一搜就知道了

[FinGraph财经图集 @fingraph66]

由于全球科技产品需求旺盛，2026年5月，中国高新技术产品出口金额飙升至约1121亿美元，同比增速高达50.9%，创下自2021年2月疫情扭曲数据以来的最快增速。
来源：边际Lab x FinGraph财经图集

[axin33 @b2znf]

高纯钼粉是电子、平面显示、光伏和航空航天等高端领域的关键基础材料，主要用于制造溅射靶材。通过物理气相沉积，由高纯钼靶材形成的电子薄膜可广泛应用于半导体芯片、柔性显示器、5G通信等高科技领域

[axin33 @b2znf]

核心是首次引入钼材料。将字线金属电极部分从现有的钨改为钼，看了是想绕过钨

[BUZZ @BUZZ__tiab]

하이닉스, 연말 375단 낸드 양산…몰리브덴 첫 도입

1/ SK하이닉스가 올해 연말 375단 3D 낸드플래시를 양산한다.

2/ 청주 M15 기존 라인을 전환하는 방식으로 진행되며 신규 증설은 없다.

3/ 당초 400단급으로 검토됐으나 양산 난도로 375단으로 조정됐고 이후 480단, 604단 로드맵이 예정돼 있다.

4/ 핵심은 몰리브덴 소재 첫 도입이다. 워드라인 금속 전극 일부를 기존 텅스텐에서 몰리브덴으로 바꿔 고단 적층 시 저항 문제를 해결하고 신호 전달 속도를 높인다.

5/ 몰리브덴은 보조막 없이 채울 수 있어 밀도 향상도 가능하다. SK하이닉스는 도쿄일렉트론의 퍼니스 방식 장비를 선택했다.

6/ 삼성전자는 이미 286단부터 몰리브덴을 적용 중이며 SK하이닉스도 이를 따라 고단 낸드 경쟁력을 강화할 전망이다.

[axin33 @b2znf]

上游材料

[kj age @kjage1]

@paurooteri 6月1日から10日までの輸出は286億ドルで、86%増···半導体111億ドル「史上最大」

[axin33 @b2znf]

@Mimiwftt 中钨高新月线很美丽