Ambassador Massinga, this framing is deeply incomplete. It presents the conflict as though one armed actor simply chose war while a reasonable government in Addis Ababa waits for dialogue. That ignores the broader war now unfolding across northern Ethiopia and, crucially, Amhara agency. The Amhara region has already endured years of war, and Fano is an independent political and military actor with its own grievances, leadership, and objectives. Reducing this crisis to another TPLF narrative renders that reality invisible.
It also leaves the regional dimension largely outside the frame, including serious allegations concerning external military support and the widening connections between conflicts across the Horn and Sudan. Those questions deserve scrutiny, not omission.
Ethiopia is entering another extraordinarily dangerous chapter after years of devastating bloodshed. Diplomacy is indispensable, but diplomacy begins with an accurate diagnosis. This is no longer a story that can be narrated simply as Addis Ababa versus the TPLF. The political and military landscape has changed, and any serious international response must recognize the agency of all the actors now shaping it, especially the Amhara forces and communities at the centre of the conflict.
Before debating alliances, perhaps we should begin with the right questions. This is my simple mental map for thinking about Ethiopia’s political landscape in September 2026: present threats, Amhara agency, political actors, and the logic of alliances. Begin with the present, then interrogate the past.
What happens after survival? The communiqué of the newly announced Coalition for Survival offers a broad, sequential framework: survival, transition under a Transitional Charter, stabilization, constitutional dialogue, and ultimately a durable political settlement. I have tried to capture that proposed architecture in one simple visual. Survival preserves the people; politics determines what they build afterward.
History matters, but strategy begins with the present. A reflection on survival, agency, and the shifting political architecture of Ethiopia and the Horn. https://t.co/WLGVNwrE0K