$BTC / Bitcoin
What a great way to start December.
Nice flush of $200,000,000 worth of longs, sending price back into the $88,000 range.
RSI now in extremely oversold territory for the first time since Bitcoin flushed down to $80,000.
The โliquidity floodโ narrative was premature. Repo rates are still tight, SOFR isnโt easing, $75B is trapped in the TGA, and the Fed may delay bill purchases (RMOs). QT ends soon, but plumbing says liquidity stays choppy before it gets smoother in 2026. Donโt mistake this for 2020.
Markets look chaotic until you zoom out.
- Fiat systems must create debt โ require liquidity โ debase currency โ push asset prices up.
- The question isnโt if assets rise in fiat terms.
- Itโs which ones rise fastest over your time horizon.
- It's your job to select the assets that will win that race based on your time horizon
Time horizon > timing