JAVIER BARRIONUEVO

[Blake Millard, CFA @BlakeMillardCFA]

Markets have interpreted last week's GDP/income revisions and recent Fed commentary as dovish for the near-term policy outlook. Since the start of the week, markets priced out 10bps of hikes from the October meeting and the likelihood is now just 30%.

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

Volvo Cars Withdraws Full Year 2026 Outlook On Volume And Cash Flow
- Q3 26 Global Sales Fall 10.7% Y/Y To 141,609

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Unbelievable.

3 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now above 5.20% for the first time in 19 years.

The 10Y Note Yield is now up +50 basis points in 30 days and +30 basis points in 2 days.

Even more remarkable is that the average American has no idea this is happening. Yet.

The bond market is imploding in front of our eyes.

[Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn]

Goldman Sachs traders say AI companies’ borrowing is pushing up longer-term interest rates beyond the Fed’s direct control.

If you’re waiting for cheaper mortgage rates, here’s why that matters.

Building AI requires expensive data centers filled with chips. Tech companies are borrowing to help pay for them by selling bonds to investors.

Governments also need those investors to fund their deficits.

To buy new tech-company bonds, investors can sell government bonds they already own. That selling pushes bond prices down and their yields, the returns investors earn, up.

Those longer-term yields help determine mortgage rates.

The Fed sets a short-term rate. It doesn’t directly set the longer-term rates that influence your home loan.

That’s how AI borrowing can affect you even if you own no AI stocks.

That’s why your next mortgage quote could stay high even after a Fed rate cut.

[Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn]

Gold fell this quarter after Turkey, Russia and several Middle Eastern countries sold part of their reserves to raise cash.

While they were selling, other central banks were buying.

They bought $40 billion worth of gold in the same quarter, the biggest quarterly purchase ever recorded. And they bought while the price was still falling.

In a survey of 76 central banks and sovereign wealth funds, 89% said they expect to hold more gold over the next 12 months.

Poland is the clearest case. It has gone from an ordinary holder to the most aggressive buyer on record. Asked why, the head of its central bank said they don't trust what's coming.

A lower price doesn’t always mean lower demand.

[Commentary Trump Daily Posts @TrumpDailyPosts]

Trump says Iran is desperate for a deal. He called it a failing nation that wants an agreement quickly and badly. The president said he alone will decide whether America sits down with Iran or not. Washington is open to the idea, he wrote, but engagement is not automatic. Trump is keeping the leverage in his hands.

[Pedro Ruiz @ElPedroRuiz]

Las elecciones serán cuando lo decida el presidente. Pero el ambiente que las rodeará es metafóricamente 'prebélico'. La tensión y el desencanto que se viven convierten las urnas en trincheras.

[Javi @J_Marhuenda]

En mis tiempos suspendías 3 asignaturas y te hacían repetir todo el curso, ahora suspendes 10 asignaturas, te pasan de curso para que no te deprimas, te regalan un patinete eléctrico, un viaje a Disneyworld y 50 puntos de aura.

Normal que la educación esté por los suelos

[CNBC @CNBC]

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting the allocation to government bonds in its $2.3 trillion investment portfolio, chiefly affecting its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, as it seeks to diversify its risk exposure and boost returns.

Read more here: https://t.co/guKANBOx0x

[El programa de AR @programadear]

Ana Rosa: “Sánchez dice que tiene derecho a vacacionar. No, señor presidente, no tiene derecho cuando su país ha sufrido una "violación de la integridad nacional", como usted mismo dijo. Cuando su país ha sido invadido, un líder tiene que dar la cara”.

#anarosa #ceuta #sanchez

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🇫🇷 Marine Le Pen is no longer the clear first-round favourite, she is now genuinely competitive against the strongest candidates in the runoff according to latest Elabe poll (for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche).

📊 She is polling around 34–35.5% in almost every configuration and is projected to beat each of the four opponents tested in the second round. The most important number is probably 52.5% Le Pen vs. 47.5% Philippe. Obviously not a done deal but the fact that the candidate who currently seems best positioned to unite the centre, part of the right and part of the left is no longer automatically beating the RN.

➡️ What stands out most is the stability of Le Pen’s base as the real battle seems to be happening behind her. Philippe can rise to 20.5% but fall to 14.5% if his political space is fragmented. Mélenchon is around 14% and Glucksmann can reach 14% while Attal is closer to 12%. Unbelievable a few years ago but Le Pen’s qualification for the second round currently looks far more secure than that of any other candidate.

1️⃣ The problem for her opponents is that the traditional “republican front” against the RN is becoming much less automatic. Mélenchon voters no longer systematically transfer to a centrist candidate, LR voters can move toward Le Pen, and in a Le Pen–Mélenchon runoff a large share of centrist voters would rather abstain. Being the candidate facing the RN is no longer enough to win according to the poll.

2️⃣ On the left, the dilemma is almost the opposite as Mélenchon looks better equipped to qualify but far less capable of winning as shown by the 30.5% vs. 69.5% result against Le Pen. Glucksmann has more potential to broaden his coalition in the second round but a weaker first-round engine. As for LR, its electoral space increasingly looks squeezed between Philippe and Le Pen.

⚠️ We still need to be cautious as this remain a poll but politically, Marine Le Pen is currently the clear first-round favourite and probably the candidate with the easiest path to final victory according to betting markets.

*Elabe link: https://t.co/guYCMk6CK3
*More details: https://t.co/C2Sr8Qys3L
*La tribune link: https://t.co/3LJE6BdFCT
*BFM TV link: https://t.co/vyB7M6Z7zb
*Kalshi link: https://t.co/8Nwd6cMzt0

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The strength of this market is unprecedented.

The S&P 500 has traded for 22 consecutive sessions without a decline of at least -1.0%.

Furthermore, the Volatility Index, $VIX, has closed at or below 16 points for 18 straight trading days.

On Friday, the $VIX finished at 14.4 points, its 2nd-lowest daily close since December 2025.

This is ~20% below its 1-year average of ~18.0 points.

The S&P 500 has now added nearly +$12 trillion in market cap since the March 2026 bottom and stands just ~1.5% below its all-time high.

US stocks have been remarkably resilient.

[Philmore A. Mellows @PhilAMellows]

RTVE anuncia la convocatoria de 872 nuevas plazas. Por su parte, Canal Sur prepara un importante proceso para cubrir 228 puestos en su mayor oferta pública de empleo desde el año 2008.
[Buenos días, cotizantes].
https://t.co/Zgs9GWx0gz

[Commentary Trump Daily Posts @TrumpDailyPosts]

🔴BREAKING: The White House just reported -

"EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY: Lake Ontario is renamed to LAKE AMERICA! 🇺🇸"

[Detrás de la cámara @TrasLasKamaras]

En Borat (2006), muchas personas que aparecen en pantalla no sabían que formaban parte de una comedia. Tras el estreno, algunos habitantes demandaron por la forma en que fueron representados.

[CNBC @CNBC]

TODAY: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins "Squawk on the Street" for an exclusive interview following the Treasury Department’s debt buyback announcement.

Tune in to CNBC at 11 a.m. ET to watch.

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

Economic volatility is what you want to avoid, because that is what produces higher unemployment and cyclical problems. Transferring that volatility from the real economy to prices like rates and currencies is the healthier path. The complication is that capital markets are not equally developed, which is what drives EM reserve accumulation into US treasuries and sets up the next crisis.

[Detrás de la cámara @TrasLasKamaras]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) cumple 20 años. Una de las aventuras más ambiciosas de la saga y con uno de los villanos más memorables.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

We shared this chart at the start of the year and noted that years that don't have a recession (as we expected to be the case in '26) tend to gain >10% nearly 70% of the time and rarely finish in the red.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Opendoor Net Income:
1H 2026: -$335 million
2025: -$1.30 billion
2024: -$392 million
2023: -$275 million
2022: -$1.35 billion
2021: -$662 million
2020: -$253 million
2019: -$339 million
$OPEN