Barter is Evil

Commenter on Economics & Demographics especially for ND. Forecasting and demographic research. RTs not necessarily endorsement. (he/him/his)

[Barter is Evil @BarterisEvil]

I will be a panelist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ Regional Economic Conditions Conference on January 15. This virtual event is free and open to the public. For event agenda and to register, visit: https://t.co/iNqgnpRLIb

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Components of population growth by state or territory for #Australia .

[Demographic Research @DemographicRes]

Introducing a global model for projecting migration until 2050, Kluge et al. factor in age, education, and gender, revealing that socioeconomic scenarios significantly impact migration flows. Explore the new future migration projections with us!
https://t.co/xYR3Zp6MVq

[Barter is Evil @BarterisEvil]

UND summer commencement. From the faculty view. #UNDproud #UND

[Dr Liz Allen @DrDemography]

And making it harder for the rest of us

[PRB @PRBdata]

🗞️ PRB in the News: @EarthDotCom explores the methodology behind PRB's answer to a really big question: "How many people have ever lived on Earth?"

🌎 🌍 �� (Before you click—what's your guess?)

https://t.co/FEUpP8RG5v

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Double yikes!

Data from vital registration is an essential part of Australia’s system of Australia’s system of population estimation.

Also what about data security? A breach could be catastrophic.
What about the enforceability of registration?

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Peter Dutton pledges to drastically slash migration in bid to free up 100,000 homes over five years https://t.co/jeBN3Wc4Ak via @ConversationEDU

The effects of such reductions to migration would be cross-sectionally undramatic but very long lasting.
#auspol

[Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk]

My colleague Matt Nester is terrific and working on a big picture look at the childcare crises and how it is affecting work. Sone teasers on what he has found and what we are working on. Full article end of May.

Good news:

Prime-age (25-43) labor force participation has exceeded pre recession peak for first time this century. 👏

Prime-age women’s participation at a record high. 👏

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Australia’s Treasurer would like to see more people having babies but rules out return of Baby Bonus.
https://t.co/WXxcGbjOmf

[Barter is Evil @BarterisEvil]

@Kevinbkarel Are prices not reflecting lower currency values?

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Britain’s universities are in freefall – and saving them will take more than funding | Gaby Hinsliff

Worrying. https://t.co/wV1PVFxqry

[Anne Morse @Anne_red_head]

@NickP1963 I think they are getting those results because they project fertility based on projected female education, unmet need for contraception, population density, and under-5 mortality.

[Anne Morse @Anne_red_head]

@NickP1963 Since, for example, India has lower female education than France, they project more "movement" in female educ in India than in France. They therefore project more fertility decline and lower fertility in India than in France. That's my understanding, anyway.

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Wondering about the coherence of forecast TFRs for 2100 in Lancet fertility forecast paper
https://t.co/Q7E3vypfWw
e.g. Morocco 1.02
Bangladesh 0.97
India 1.04
Pakistan 1.16
Above forecast TFRs are lower than those for West Europe.

Any thoughts Twitter? @Anne_red_head?

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 https://t.co/Zlri4P9xFj

Interesting point that meeting the UNSDGs will result in even lower fertility!

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

This is a very interesting paper.

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Important conclusions.

It is wrong to attribute increase in TFR to Hungary’s pronatalist policies.

Most of the increase is due to tempo and parity effects.
Economic recovery is a competing explanation for the small remainder.

[Andra Sonea @andrasonea]

@rsfrankl @UCL_BSP It was super interesting! Reading the paper now.

[Nick Parr @NickP1963]

Stop trying to make more babies https://t.co/LhwcxX7fNX

A well-argued piece on the difficulties and dangers of pronatalist policies.