2026 forecast: 25% bear market and recovery
-Overall structure I see: head fake in Q1, multi-month liquidation, Q4 rally
-Up till ~Feb 17 (7250-7400 $SPX), then look for topping signs/divergences
-Mar 27 minor low
-Early warning sign that market has topped is acceptance below 6532 which takes us to 6144; below it we go to low 5K
-2 Potential key low dates: July 24 and Oct 27 where I see 3.5Y cycle low
-July is likely a major low followed by a big rally; Oct - lower low that is divergent giving cleaner entry
-5200 target; extreme low range is 4600-4800; upper range is 5400-5600
-Big rally in Q4, year end target 5950
-All 4 previous annual forecasts are included on the chart for reference
-Commentary and other assets forecasts to be added over next few weeks in the thread below
-If you found my work helpful - can support with retweets