Adebayo

I tweet my thoughts and retweet what I find intriguing | a part-time Tourist |Building @CAPTheftNg | First class OAU ChemEng

[Adebayo @bayestein]

A labourer should never labour in vain.
Like 10:7, 1 Tim 5:18 - “…For the Labourer is worthy of his reward”.

So, if ur aspirant comes out to say somtin contrary to dis, he is just a reflection of ur heart, & perspective of honest work and that’s really shameful. #BoboChicago

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@Ovox_007 @SirJarus Na where e dey hit am be that😂Say na Nightlife and babes at my beck and call. Mmmcheww! Life of an adult male😄

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@NaijaTayo @Rxbremen Anyone with two functioning eyes clearly sees the leader here. Good figure👏🏾👏🏾

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@47kasz @UgwunnaEjikem He really deserves to suffer mehn! Cheating with a play thing that can’t even afford to transport herself. Man is exceptionally low class.

['Fisayo Soyombo @fisayosoyombo]

I spent 47 days as one of several thousand African migrants seeking to enter Europe through the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea.

Story on @fijnigeria tomorrow, Thursday and on Friday.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

Allow the poor girl breathe please! Focus on the randy and low level money miss road guy who has to promise baddies marriage to get them in big 2026.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@Mochievous @bizzleosikoya You nailed it Moe! This is crazy pitch. In a place like lagos, you can’t go soft on vendors at all.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@X_guy78 @RayGoodison @frankedoho @isbae_u Yeah he really does sound stupid! I’m not sure he has a Father, if he does, he won’t be such an absolutely dumb a$$

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@Hybrid_Ola Like all the women complaining were not also going on serial dates with other men! Let’s be for real please. Where I have issues with him is lying that he is single when he isn’t. A high value man pulls women regardless of his status and he has no reason hiding it from them.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@RayGoodison @frankedoho @isbae_u If they packaged shit for you, I’m sure you’ll definitely buy it. Everything after they say “Action” is just cruise and FE will also play along on the show.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@____Yaks You can as well offer the whole of Nigeria to Dangote as sacrifice

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@talk2mrmoney @Ssaasquatch The hype will not be sustainable either. When you see a PE thats 3X global refining companies average or an EPS that is one third of industry average, smart money will further dump. The the private placement guys will also dump at one time in that period. Plus margin squeeze

[Adebayo @bayestein]

@talk2mrmoney @Ssaasquatch And that future is circa 2031. So why should I pay premium today and wait for 5 yrs before the real value kicks in? And theres still execution risks at play, tho not significant cos the tech is already proven, but there are other risks (oil price, country risk, reduced margin..)

[Adebayo @bayestein]

This is not financial advice 🥂👏🏾🫡
Selah!

(c) Bayestein

[Adebayo @bayestein]

On the Dangote refinery IPO

The IPO price of 575 naira(40 cents) for 120 Billion units is just peak share dilution at IPO, and he will be holding about 87% of those shares.

….Continued in the comment👇🏾

[Adebayo @bayestein]

A safer bet will be to wait and buy at 200 naira levels, it will get there before now and 2031, before the expansion to 1.4mpd is completed.

The real value comes after that expansion, not now, but you must buy the share at discount levels before he completes the expansion.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

Now there's possibilities that bcos of the hype, the share price will pump so massively. However, the moment of truth will eventually come when he starts posting revenue and profit numbers.
When Analysts see the EPS and PE ratios, institutional investors will dump on all of you.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

This assumption doesn’t factor in FX rate flunctustions in the future. So the share price might explode in the future if Naira devalues, however the value in dollar will still subsist.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

that will be 2X of 2026 annualized revenue figures. So in the most optimistic scenario,Alh achieves $1/ share when the refinery is expanded and the margins are high and it will only be sufficient to take the share price from 575 to 1,300.We all know that’s almost not possible.

[Adebayo @bayestein]

pricing one day so the margin will eventually fall.
Now let’s even assume the margin stays the same (no refinery has such huge margins in the world, but let’s assume Baba is lucky), it means to achieve $VLO’s absolute profit of $7.2B, Alh’s revenue will have to be circa $56B,

[Adebayo @bayestein]

us off and making crazy margins on the refined products. Now, this is not sustainable because when he expands to 1.4mpd, he will have to export his refined products at global competitive prices which will drop his margin. Also the Nigerian market will react to this predatory

[Adebayo @bayestein]

And if you want to argue on EBITDA/Profit instead of revenues, I invite you to take a look at $VLO’s margins. EBITDA is $13.3B and net profit is $7.2B(5.45% margin) Alhaji’s H1 ‘26 EBITDA/profit is $2.6B/$1.82B(13.1%). The margin is super high because bcos Alhaji has been ripping