@madmexman 2.5년가까이 바닥선언하고 무제한으로 상승뷰만 외치며,, 바닥잡았던 손절가,예측했던 기간 전부 수도없이 틀려왔는데 이제와서 시장이 상승하면
그것은 님이 잘한게 아니고 시장이 잘한겁니다!
님은 한거 없어여,, 심지어 가만있으면 절반은 가는데
58.9이탈시 코인시장 철수 고민한다고함 ㅋㅋ
@bushinindustry 8월의 크리스마스 제작년도가 1997이고 스텔라루멘이 2014년부터인데
심지어 블록체인이라는게 생기기도 전인 1997년에 스텔라루멘에 대한 힌트를 삽입한 영화를 의도를 가지고 찍는다구요? ㄷㄷㄷㄷ 도사님 일부러 함정도 넣는다 하시더니 이런건 어떻게 받아들여야할지 모르겟..
인공지능이 언제부터인지도 모르게
인체 생리 병리 약리학을 종합적으로
거의 완벽히 이해하고 모델링하는데
‘컴퓨터는 사람에게 바둑은 못이기지’
이러다가 이세돌이 3연패 하던걸 보고
멘붕이 왔던 그시절을 회상한다
인공지능 > 인류 지능의 총합이 벌써
내가 체감할 정도까지도 온것같기도하다
즉 실리콘 두뇌와 금속 기반 본체를 가질 Ai에게
더이상 탄소기반 인간의 비밀은 없다고 봐야한다
일론 : 인간은 Ai의 부트로더야
샘 : 그러니 공존할 방법을 찾아야지
여기서 멈추려면 EMP 쏘고
석기시대로 가는방법뿐일텐데
국가 단위 경쟁 & 기업 단위 경쟁
이미 멈출수없는 풀악셀상태인것을 🏎️💨💨🔥🔥
Magnesium rapidly reverses depression - case series.
Multiple people who had chronic depression recovered within 7 days.
125-300 mg of magnesium (as glycinate or taurate) has broad spectrum benefits to mental health, benefitting:
• Brain injury
• Headache
• Suicidal ideation
• Anxiety
• Irritability
• Insomnia
• Postpartum depression
• Drug abuse
• Short-term memory loss
• IQ loss
Magnesium stores become depleted with chronic stress, a major hallmark of depression.
It acts as a calming factor in brain cells, preventing excess excitation, energy failure and cell death common in these conditions by antagonizing the effects of calcium.
S&P 500 ✨Daily update:
The rising wedge continues its slow, deceptive ascent, a pattern textbooks warn resolves downward more often than not historically with success rates north of 70% in many studies once the lower rail gives way.
We sit near the apex, the structure tightening, momentum thinning. Today’s grind higher on conspicuously low volume (roughly a third of the recent average in some readings) reeks of exhaustion. This is no robust advance; it is a market running on fumes, participation fading even as price clings to the upper boundary.
Compounding the fragility is the unfilled gap lower still visible on the chart. Gaps of this nature on a major index are exceedingly rare to remain open indefinitely...particularly at current elevated valuations and after such a steep climb.
The ¾ mark of such wedges has long been the more treacherous zone failure there often proves more decisive and violent than a full push to the apex. Volume has been anemic on the up days while breadth remains selective at best. The setup has the classic hallmarks of a late-stage exhaustion move: higher highs on diminishing fuel, a market that looks strong only if one ignores the internals.
We are in the end game of this particular formation. A near-term turn sits on the horizon with elevated probability. Price can still grind a touch higher, but the risk/reward has shifted.
Yours truly,
The Great Martis
For one’s private perusal.
She’s still beautiful.
Losing fitness in your 20s has consequences decades later.
Researchers treadmill-tested 4,872 adults aged 18–30, then tested them again 7 years later, and followed them for 27 years.
- Every 1-min improvement in treadmill performance was associated with a 15% lower risk of death.
- Every 1-min decline in fitness over the first 7 years was associated with a 21% higher risk of death and a 20% higher risk of cardiovascular disease.
You can't just build fitness and be done with it - you need to maintain it for the rest of your life.
Want to know what your health %-ile is? Take the quick assessment to get your score and find your biggest bottlenecks: https://t.co/6BrWir8FqN
PMID: 26618471
지금은 깨어나야 할 때 101
영화를 소개해 드림.
애플시드,매트릭스 같은 영화들은
CIA내 우리 화이트햇 시나리오팀이
일정 부분 관여한다고 함.
2015년에 제작된 영화
'쥬피터 어센딩'
지구별에서 청노부로 일하며 온갖
역경을 겪던 소녀가 어느날 각성하니
수많은 별들을 소유한 우주의 여왕
이었다는 스토리의 영화임.
비록 흥행에는 실패했지만
'주피터 어센딩'은 스타시즈와
라이트워커,그리고 지구상에 존재하는
우리의 존재를 진정으로 이해하려는
사람들을 위해 만들어진 가장 위대한
'디스클로저' 영화임.
깨어 있는 사람들에게는,
그것은 ET 의제,인공 생명 형태,
그리고 얼마나 쉽게 인간의
마음에서 기억을 지우고 차단할 수
있는지를 포함한 모든 것을 드러내기
때문에,지금까지 만들어진 영화 중 가장
높은 수준의 영화임.
그러나 더 많은 것은 고대 계약이 지구
외부와 다른 행성에서 사용되는 방식을
이야기하는 것임
THE GALACTIC THREE
THE GREAT RESHAPING OF THE WORLD
The world of investing is always based on a brutal but simple law, and this law defines whether you are buying early into an asset, or you even define an entire industry that is under valued. And once you understood, and found an entire industry that is going to lead in the next decades, there is nothing to ignore anymore. So in the current world we have the entire world betting on AI but everyone seems to ignore the biggest change we are facing, its the re shaping of our finance as all, the financial sector is going to see a re-shape like never seen before, and this is part of the fifth industrial revolution. In my opinion, the fourth one came with the rise of social media, the world wide web as we know it today, and e-commerce. The third revolution was the dot-com era, the internet and the beginning of mobile phones. The second was the age of electricity, steel and the burn engine. And the first was the steam engine, which gave us the railways and the trains. From the first revolution until today's fifth revolution, that is roughly 260 years, and in each of these revolutions the new technology takes over the old technology, and those who adopted the new technology have been the successful ones, while those who insisted on the old ways, rebelled, or rejected the new move ended up on the losing side.
2. THE GALACTIC THREE
I am betting BIG on the Galactic Three: Circle, Coinbase, and ETH. Circle is the largest regulated stablecoin issuer in the world. Coinbase is the largest crypto custodian in the world and the largest crypto exchange in the United States. Ethereum is the largest smart-contract and tokenization network in the world. The foundation of the next generation of crypto and finance is already here, directly in front of everyone, and I am betting heavily on it. The reason is simple, and once you truly understand this structure, the thesis becomes almost impossible to unsee. BlackRock sees itself as the father of everything: every asset, every market, and every major pool of capital in this world. Since the launch of the crypto ETFs, this father of everything has also become the new father of crypto. Not only the father of BTC. The father of the entire crypto system. And the three companies and assets with the deepest connection to this father are exactly the Galactic Three: Circle, Coinbase, and Ethereum. All my personal buy orders, sell orders, portfolio plannings, and trading ideas are shared exclusive in premium only. Whenever I Invest, I share it in real time, whenever I sell, its shared in real time. This is exclusive for premium members only. Find out more on: https://t.co/oP8wCPuO9J.
3. THE BTC PROBLEM:
Here is the problem with BTC: Dont get me wrong and I am not bearish at all on BTC, I remain super bullish on Bitcoin, and yet in this cycle I decided to own a ratio of 60% ETH, 40% BTC. And the reasons are all in this report. For now, BlackRock cannot do much with Bitcoin other than package it inside an ETF and sell exposure to it. There is no traditional business behind BTC. Bitcoin has no CEO. They cannot simply call Bitcoin and demand changes. For someone like Larry Fink and for Wall Street, that makes Bitcoin a relatively boring asset. Yet BlackRock still bet massively on it, and IBIT became the most successful ETF launch of all time. Remember this point carefully, because now you will understand exactly how this “problem” gets solved, why Bitcoin is extremely interesting for BlackRock, and why the final result may be something most people will not like. On July 23, BlackRock, Coinbase, Fidelity, Strategy, and five other giants launched the Bitcoin Security Consortium, committing $15 million over three years to finance quantum-resistant protection for Bitcoin. At the same time, Coinbase’s own research estimates that between 20% and 50% of all BTC held in older wallet formats could potentially be exposed to a future quantum attack, while BlackRock already lists quantum computing as an official risk factor in its ETF filings. Now think one step further. A quantum-resistant upgrade would be one of the most complex changes Bitcoin could ever face. Proposals such as BIP-360 already exist, and if the migration becomes contested, it could end in a HARD FORK: two different Bitcoins. It happened before with Bitcoin Cash. So if Bitcoin splits, which Bitcoin does the ETF follow? BLACKROCK DECIDES. Whichever chain IBIT follows immediately becomes THE institutional Bitcoin. The other chain would have no BlackRock support, no ETF flows, no serious institutional backing, and could remain exposed to quantum attacks at any time. So who will hold the “original” Bitcoin that nobody protects and no institution supports? Nobody. The consortium officially claims that it will take no role in Bitcoin governance. Of course they say that. But the reality is that the Bitcoin community is slow and lazy, Bitcoin Core development has always been thin, and now a foundation-style structure backed by the largest asset managers on earth is developing a quantum-resistant Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the miners are spread across different continents, disconnected from each other, with everyone running his own decentralized business and no real partnership or coordinated structure between them. The father of all dollars steps in and takes over the job. Larry Fink protects Bitcoin from the quantum computer, and in return, you use HIS Bitcoin. His Bitcoin operates under HIS institutional rules. This is how the one asset BlackRock could never directly control finally gets a father. Connected to the entire structure are Coinbase, holding the ETF coins; Circle, operating on reserves managed by BlackRock; and Ethereum, carrying the tokenization infrastructure. The Galactic Three are so galactic that almost nobody understands what is happening yet. Update from Today: Today we have seen another Hardware wallet breach, and this will become the normal in the future, and the new tech is going to overrun the old tech, and this is why the Bitcoin Algo will need an update in future.
4. COINBASE: THE CUSTODIAN OF BLACKROCK’S BITCOIN
Coinbase Custody is the primary custodian of BlackRock’s IBIT. Read that again: the biggest Bitcoin ETF in the world, with the underlying coins physically sitting under Coinbase’s custody. BlackRock selected Coinbase from day one, not only for custody but also for spot-market pricing data. When Wall Street buys Bitcoin, Coinbase holds it. And this relationship goes far beyond BlackRock. The large majority of U.S. spot Bitcoin AND Ethereum ETF issuers selected Coinbase as their custodian, meaning that nearly the entire ETF industry is sitting on Coinbase’s vaults. And now we come to the Circle connection, because this is where the structure becomes VERY VERY VERY beautiful. Coinbase owns an equity stake in Circle and earns a share of the interest income generated by the reserves behind USDC. Coinbase also receives 100% of the interest generated by the USDC held directly on its own platform. Every time USDC grows, Coinbase earns. Every time Circle wins, Coinbase wins. Dont see them as competitors, they work on the same machine. Coinbase also built its own blockchain, Base, which has become one of the largest Layer 2 networks in the world. And where does Base settle? On Ethereum. Coinbase is therefore directly feeding the third member of the Galactic Three as well. One company, connected to every side of the system. Do you understand this connection? Do you understand how the sun and the moon are moving? All is perfectly alligned, and this is is the case with the GALACTIC THREE! Today, Coinbase trades at approximately $155, around 60% below its previous high of $402, while simultaneously building what I call the everything exchange: tokenized stocks, options through its acquisition of Deribit, the largest crypto-options platform in the world, an SEC-registered AI advisor, a USDC credit card, and a MiCA license allowing it to serve the entire European Union. But the tokenized-stock business is the most important part, because this is where the connection between BlackRock, Ethereum, Circle, and Coinbase becomes impossible to ignore.
5. ETHEREUM: THE NEW WORLD OF FINANCE
When BlackRock launched BUIDL, its tokenized Treasury fund, it launched on Ethereum first. BUIDL has grown past $2.5 billion in assets and has paid out over $100 million in dividends since inception. Larry Fink has said it openly, over and over: the endgame is the tokenization of every asset. Stocks, bonds, funds, real estate. And the numbers show where that vision lives: Ethereum holds roughly $16.6 billion in RWA value, more than half of the entire tokenized asset market, up 315% year over year. BNB Chain sits at $3.6 billion, Solana at $2.5 billion. Ethereum commands four and a half times its nearest rival, and the answer that you need to know is that Larry Fink BlackRock CEO, decided for ETH.
I cover DTCC in more detail later in this report, but to give you a quick insight: DTCC is the settlement backbone of American capital markets, custodian of over $114 trillion in U.S. securities, and in 2026 it received SEC clearance to tokenize Russell 1000 stocks, which include the entire S&P 500 and every major Nasdaq name, plus major index ETFs and U.S. Treasuries, with BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan on board. The core platform runs on Besu, an Ethereum client, meaning the plumbing of Wall Street is now being rebuilt on Ethereum technology and standards. The process is simple. Today, when you buy a stock, your broker sends the order, DTCC updates a database, and settlement takes a day. In the tokenized version, that stock becomes a token, the transfer happens on-chain, and settlement is instant. And those rails speak Ethereum's language, so every bank and custodian plugging into them is building Ethereum-compatible infrastructure whether they planned to or not. Since EIP-1559 in 2021, a portion of every transaction fee on Ethereum is burned. Destroyed forever. That upgrade shipped three years before the ETFs, before BUIDL, before DTCC. The mechanism was built in advance, and its true purpose is only now arriving. A tokenized Stock Market changes hands: It is as if Visa destroyed a piece of its own stock every time someone swiped a card. No equity on Earth has that structure, and this can lead to rising and increased rising prices only.
Ethereum underperformed during the previous cycle because there was NO regulatory clarity regarding its future. That is exactly why I stayed away from investing large amounts into ETH during the previous cycle and focused primarily on BTC instead. Remember XRP. XRP did almost nothing during the 2021 bull market because of the SEC lawsuit hanging over it. Once that legal cloud started disappearing, I invested strongly in XRP, made it into my second largest investment after BTC in the last cycle, and I spoke about that in public and made many reports why I bought XRP back then at $0,30, it became one of the strongest-performing assets during the 2024 and 2025 cycle. I am not expecting anything fundamentally different for Ethereum. ETH currently sits at approximately $1,880 while around 57% of the entire tokenized real-world-asset market operates on its rails. When the clarity comes, the repricing comes, and the fair value always finds his best friend.
6. CIRCLE: THE DEEPEST CONNECTION OF THE GALACTIC THREE
Circle may have the deepest connection of all three, and almost nobody is discussing it, perhaps because people still look at it as “just a stablecoin company.” But who manages the reserves behind USDC? BLACKROCK. The Circle Reserve Fund is an SEC-registered government money-market fund managed by BlackRock and custodied by BNY Mellon, The Bank of New York. More than 80% of every dollar backing USDC sits inside a fund managed by BlackRock. BlackRock was also already an investor in Circle in 2022, long before the mainstream started talking about stablecoin stocks. This beautiful stock is the company behind USDC, the mother of all future regulated stablecoins and the ONLY large MiCA-regulated dollar stablecoin in Europe. In the United States, the GENIUS Act is forcing every issuer into a regulated framework, and Tether is already beginning to feel the pressure. For the first time since 2022, the amount of USDT in circulation declined, falling by $3 billion in Q1 2026. In Q2, the supply stopped falling, but the real story is somewhere else. USDC reached an all-time high of 12.5% of all crypto trading volume during Q2, and during the first half of 2026, approximately 70% of all real stablecoin volume moved through USDC, compared with only around 25% through USDT. In June alone, $1.21 trillion moved through USDC, compared with only $576 billion through USDT. And the future of finance belongs to the dollar that moves. Every dollar leaving unregulated stablecoins has one obvious destination: USDC. And who profits? CIRCLE.
But USDC is not even the entire story, because Circle also operates USYC: TOKENIZED TREASURY BILLS designed for institutions. Instead of leaving dollars sitting on-chain or inside a bank account DOING NOTHING, institutions can move that capital into USYC, where it is invested in short-term U.S. Treasuries while remaining available on-chain. I have been monitoring USYC’s supply for months. It grew from approximately $350 million to $400 million in October 2025 to around $3 BILLION today. It even overtook BlackRock’s own BUIDL fund to become the LARGEST tokenized Treasury product in the world, and Binance now accepts it as institutional collateral. And here comes the beautiful irony: the GENIUS Act prevents stablecoin issuers from paying yield directly on the stablecoin itself. So where does the yield business move? To USYC. And Circle owns BOTH sides of the trade. USDC becomes the regulated digital dollar used for payments and settlement, while USYC becomes the tokenized Treasury product used for yield and institutional collateral. I had patience, more than enough patience. I always wanted to own this stock, and I finally grabbed it at approximately $62, far below the $83 price at which it opened on its listing day and nearly 70% below its all-time high of $197.90. An amazing entry. From $62 today, I expect at least $500 by 2030. This is my personal opinion and not financial advice.
7. THE TOKENIZATION OF EVERYTHING AND THE DTCC REVOLUTION
The entire world is moving toward tokenization. Coinbase has announced tokenized U.S. stocks backed 1:1 by real shares, with dividends distributed automatically on-chain. At the same time Kraken and Robinhood are racing into the same market. Japanese stock market is coming through SBI using Ondo rails, which run on Ethereum. Nasdaq is preparing its own tokenized-securities framework. None of these companies or developments are separate. They are all connected. Larry Fink has already said it himself: the dream is the tokenization of everything, and it begins with stocks. And mark my words: platforms such as Hyperliquid and pure DEX infrastructure will eventually face bans if they do not implement proper KYC. There is no decentralized endgame. Get this fantasy out of your head. The elites will never allow you to control an entirely independent and anonymous decentralized financial system. If you genuinely believe in decentralization, hold Gold. Gold is the oldest decentralized asset in existence. No financial advice. This is simply the most logical answer I can give to the DeFi believers. Again, there will not be a completely decentralized financial system. You will watch DeFi transform into KYC-based financial infrastructure.
And if you need final proof that this shift is already happening, look at the DTCC, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. The DTCC is the beating heart of the U.S. financial system. Nearly every American stock you have ever heard of sits in its hands, and it processes quadrillions of dollars in transactions. In 2026, it launched its Tokenization Service, which turns stocks into on the blockchain. When the DTCC turns a stock into a token, the actual transfer and settlement no longer happen inside the DTCC's own systems. They happen OUTSIDE, on the BlockChain and in this case on the ETH backed Besu. Do you see the connection my friends ? Do you understand what happens when trillions in tokenized stocks and Treasuries start moving on-chain, around the clock, with instant settlement, someone has to provide the rails, the bridge, and the money.. Ethereum provides the rails. It is the settlement layer this new infrastructure runs on. Coinbase provides the bridge. It is the regulated custodian connecting old-world capital to the new digital system. Circle provides the money. To settle massive tokenized trades globally, you need a deeply liquid, fully compliant digital dollar. That is USDC. Friends, the new financial world is right in front of us, grab it with haste, I am investing right into this shift, I believe in THIS future, and I dont believe in a future of money of the free will. I dont believe in privacy coins or decentralized finance. I believe in compliant, regulated, and institutional driven markets. My bet is on the other side, and many in the world of Crypto will not like my comments now.
8. THE CLARITY ACT:
The CLARITY Act will be extremely positive for the crypto industry, but I believe it will be MORE positive for ETH, Circle, and Coinbase than for BTC. Bitcoin is already broadly treated as a commodity. The Act answers the questions that matter most for the other three: which tokens are securities and which are commodities, whether exchanges fall under the SEC or the CFTC, which disclosure rules apply to issuers, how stablecoins and yield products are treated, how DeFi protocols will be regulated, and how an insolvency safe harbor for digital-commodity transactions will operate. The status is clear: the Act passed the House in July 2025 with a massive bipartisan vote of 294 votes to 134, was approved by the Senate Banking Committee by 15 votes to 9 in May, and now requires a vote on the Senate floor before August 10, when the Senate leaves for its state work period. Otherwise, we wait until September. But either way, this is coming. All my personal buy orders, sell orders, portfolio plannings, and trading ideas are shared exclusive in premium only. Whenever I Invest, I share it in real time, whenever I sell, its shared in real time. This is exclusive for premium members only. Find out more on: https://t.co/oP8wCPuO9J.
9. I AM INVESTING DIRECTLY INTO THE CHANGE
These undervalued assets, or more accurately, this entire undervalued SECTOR, is what I call the new finance of our new world. All the money that is invested into an over valued AI Market, will realise that we are facing a strong shift in the financial markets, and the investments will flow into the sector of: FINANCE. The entire sector remains undervalued because the public and many large investors still do not understand the scale of its future impact. They do not understand the impact of Coinbase. They do not understand the impact of Circle. They do not understand the impact of ETH. And they certainly do not yet understand the magnitude of the new tokenized financial system that is being constructed directly in front of them. This shift will go into the history books. Again, our financial system is changing, and I am investing DIRECTLY into that change. I am investing in the leading companies and assets building the transformation, operating the infrastructure, and positioned to profit the most from it. And if you ask me how heavily I have positioned myself, I went very big on these bets. I could even argue that I went EXTREMELY big. I am investing for the long term, and I expect these gains to become generational, potentially enough to provide financial security for at least the next 10 to 20 years. This is my personal opinion only and is not financial advice. Nothing I share should be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I am sharing my own thoughts and decisions. (https://t.co/Qx4dZU3sVM)
Date 31st July
ETH Price NOW: $1,877
CoinBase Price NOW: $154
Circle Price NOW: $63
황정민 스토킹 사건 정리ㅣ260730
1. 디스패치 취재 결과 황정민과 여성 A씨(41)는 2023년 8월부터 2024년 3월까지 총 3차례, 5시간 30분가량 만난 게 전부임. 손을 잡거나 팔짱을 끼는 등의 스킨십은 전혀 없었고 육체적 관계도 없었음.
2. A씨는 두 사람 사이를 팬·친구·동료·연인 중 무엇으로도 명확히 규정하지 못했음. 대신 “2년간 사적인 상호관계를 유지한 쌍방관계”라고 주장하며 상호작용 전체를 부정당해 억울하다고 호소했음.
3. 악연의 출발점은 A씨의 열혈팬 활동이었음. 무대인사를 빠짐없이 따라다니자 황정민이 고맙다며 “나중에 밥 한번 먹자”고 전화번호를 건넸고, 이 약속이 2023년 8월 16일 첫 만남으로 성사됐음.
4. 첫 만남에서 황정민이 3시간 동안 개인적 고민 등 사적인 이야기를 털어놨음. A씨는 배우가 팬에게 개인사를 말하는 게 이례적이라며 이 대목을 쌍방관계의 시발점으로 해석했음.
5. 두 번째 만남은 인천공항 푸드코트였음. 황정민이 소주 사업 제안을 언급하며 시각디자인과 출신인 A씨에게 라벨 디자인을 권했는데, 이 제안이 이후 비극의 단초가 됐음.
6. 황정민에게 소주 사업은 아이스브레이킹용 농담에 가까웠으나 A씨는 진지하게 시장조사와 상표권 절차까지 알아봤음. 그러나 황정민이 사업을 안 하기로 했다며 반응을 끊자 관계가 틀어지기 시작했음.
7. 이후 황정민은 부담을 느껴 2023년 12월 “당분간 연락하지 마라”고 통보했음. A씨는 40일간 연락을 끊는 동안 극단적 선택을 시도했다고 주장했음.
8. 2024년 2월 10일 A씨의 1차 스토킹이 시작됐음. 카톡 차단에 격분해 황정민 아들에게 연락했고, 하루 동안 78회·약 6천 자에 달하는 메시지를 일방적으로 퍼부었음.
9. 황정민은 이튿날 통화 후 3월 14일 직접 만나 소주 사업 관련 오해를 사과했음. 더는 가족에게 연락하지 말라고 당부했으나 관계는 완전히 정리되지 않았고 문자·통화가 간헐적으로 이어졌음.
10. 2025년 5월 관계는 가해자와 피해자로 전환됐음. A씨가 나흘간 113회·약 4,900자를 쏟아내자 황정민은 스토킹으로 고소했고, 카톡 1만 1천여 자와 고양이 사체 사진, 편지·유서 등을 증거로 냈음. 아들 학교 공연까지 몰래 관람한 정황도 더해졌으며, 디스패치는 후속 기사에서 A씨의 현실 왜곡 과정을 다룰 예정이라고 밝혔음.
근 2-3년간 세상 돌아가는걸 보면 뭔가 이상한 느낌 드는 사람 많을 거임.
물가는 오르고 취업은 안 되는데, 주식시장은 계속 신고가를 찍어오고.. 뭔가 안 맞는 것 같은데 정확히 뭐가 안 맞는지는 설명 못 하겠는 상태?
나도 이에 대한 답 찾다가 결국 토마 피케티(프랑스 경제학자)까지 가게 됐음.
'21세기 자본' 이라는 책으로 유명한 사람인데.. 두꺼운 책이라 다 읽을 필요는 없고, 이 사람이 데이터로 보여준 핵심 하나만 알아도 요즘 세상 돌아가는 게 좀 이해가 될거임.
먼저 하나 정확히 짚고 가면, 아래 내용이 책 그대로의 요약은 아니고
피케티가 오랜 데이터로 증명한 핵심, 자본 수익률이 경제 성장률보다 높은 게 자본주의의 기본값이라는 거에 살을 붙여서 "자본주의가 왜 이렇게 흘러가는지" 3단계로 풀어본 설명이라고 보면 됨.
먼저, 자본주의는 3단계로 흘러감.
1/ 소비자 자본주의
사회가 사람들이 사고 싶어 하는 물건을 만드는 단계. 공장 짓고, 사람 고용하고, 기술 개발하고.. 진짜 "부(wealth)"를 만드는 시기임. 급격한 성장이 일어나는 단계.
2/ 금융 자본주의
문제는 여기서 시작됨. 공장 지어서 돈을 좀 벌면, 그다음엔 그 돈을 "더 빨리" 불리고 싶어짐. 공장을 하나 더 짓는 것보다 그 돈을 주식시장에 넣는 게 훨씬 남는 장사기 때문임.
숫자로 보면 이유가 명확함. 피케티가 소득세 데이터를 오래 분석해서 찾은 게, 실물 경제는 연 2% 정도 성장하는데 금융 경제(자본 수익률)는 연 5% 정도 성장한다는 거임.
가령 수중에 1억 원이 있다고 치면,
식당 차려서 실물경제에 넣으면 연 200만원 버는데, 그냥 주식에 넣으면 연 500만원 버는거임.
이러니 다들 공장 대신 주식을 선택하게 되는 거임 (사실 합리적인 선택이긴 함..)
문제는 이게 나 혼자만 그러면 상관없는데, 전 사회, 나라가 다 같이 이러면 실제로 뭔가를 만들고 일하는 사람이 점점 없어진다는 거임.
실물경제는 정체되는데 주식시장만 계속 오르는, 이 괴리가 여기서 생기는 거임.
주식시장의 가격은 금융시장을 만나 더 증폭하게 되고.. 그 괴리는 점점 더 커져.. 주식시장과 실물경제는 점점 더 따로 놀게 되는거고 말임.
즉, 이 단계에서는 실물경제의 '부'는 선형적으로 증가하는 반면에 세상의 '돈(화폐)'은 비선형적으로 증폭하는 거임.
3/ 독점 자본주의
그러다가 한단계 더 넘어가.. 세상의 '돈'이 너무 많아진 상태가 되면.. 독점을 통해 소수 회사가 시장을 다 먹어버리는 단계가 됨.
금융 자본주의에서 독점 자본주의로 왜 넘어가냐면..
금융 자본주의 참여자들의 목표 자체가 "돈을 최대한 안정적으로 불리는 것"인데.. 경쟁 시장에서는 마진이 계속 깎임.. 경쟁자가 있으면 가격을 마음대로 못 올리니까.
반면 독점(혹은 소수 과점)은 가격 결정력이 있어서 이윤이 훨씬 크고 안정적임. 그래서 2단계에서 풀린 돈이 새 공장을 짓기보다 경쟁사를 사버리는(M&A) 쪽으로 흘러감. 경쟁해서 이기는 것보다 아예 사버리는 게 더 빠르고 안전하게 돈을 불리는 방법이니까.
돈은 세상에 많고 앞으로는 더 많아질테니.. 현재 지위/상태를 유지하려는 쪽으로 흘러가는거임.
이게 반복되면 소수 기업이 시장을 흡수하게 됨. 1→2 때 "공장 짓기 대신 주식시장"이었던 논리가, 2→3에서는 "경쟁하기 대신 인수하기"로 반복되는 셈임.
바란·스위지의 '독점자본론'(1966)에서는 독점 때문에 기업이 초과이윤을 얻는데 재투자할 데가 마땅치 않아서 그 돈이 금융·투기로 흘러간다는 논리를 이야기 하긴하는데..
여기서 중요한 건.. 이 전환들은 누가 나쁜 짓 해서 벌어지는 게 아니라 시스템 자체가 그런 선택을 유도하는 방향으로 설계돼 있어서 자연스럽게 흘러가는거임. 즉, 음모론이 아니라 그냥 인센티브 구조의 문제라는 거임.
그럼 우리는 어떻게 살아야 할까..
이 구조 자체를 개인이 바꿀 순 없음. 근데 알고 대응하는 거랑 모르고 휩쓸리는 건 완전히 다르다고 생각함. 몇 가지 정리해봄.
- 소득을 하나에 다 걸지 않아야 함.
노동소득 하나만 믿고 가면 이 구조 안에서 계속 뒤처질 수밖에 없음. 그렇다고 다 때려치고 투기판에 뛰어들라는 얘기는 절대 아니고, 최소한 이 게임의 룰(자본이 어떻게 돌아가는지)은 이해하고 있어야 한다는 거임.
- 실물 가치를 만드는 일의 의미를 잃지 않아야 함.
다들 돈 복사하는 쪽으로만 몰리는 시대일수록, 진짜 뭔가를 만들어내는 기술·역량은 오히려 희소해짐. "다 필요 없고 돈만 굴리면 되지"로 냉소적으로 가기보다, 본인만의 실물 가치(전문성, 기술, 관계)를 계속 쌓아가면 차별된 가치를 가지게 될 것임.
결국 아는 것과 그렇게 살아가는 건 다른 문제임. 이 흐름을 안다고 다 해결되는 건 아니지만, 최소한 왜 이렇게 사는 게 팍팍한지는 설명이 되니까.. 그거 하나만으로도 의미는 있다고 봄ㅎ
달리기는 단순히 앞으로 뛰어가는 운동이 아니라
한 발로 엄청난 충격을 버티고 다시 땅을 밀어내는 과정의 반복입니다.
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