John Ryan

Investment ideas | Technology | Futurist | Engineering

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

🔋 $EOSE 🔋
Contrary to the headlines, new power generation isn't the problem, grid distribution is at 80% of total cost!

Jigar Shah says the fastest way to lower bills & solve the demand crisis is NOT more new power plants, but mass deployment of BATTERIES & Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). 🔋

• US transmission is only at 55% utilization.

• At any given time there is ~1TW of available excess capacity.

• Power generation costs are down 25% adjusted for inflation since 2010.

https://t.co/QpJgohRJGb

[🇺🇸 🔋Reasonable.Assurance🔋🇺🇸 @RsnblAssurance]

$EOSE excellent interview from @JigarShahDC on today’s “golden opportunity”
https://t.co/KGfXnZStfp

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@EosLongBat I see the new metric is tracking material linked to Indensity production.

Felt = Sales
Plastic Case Cover = Growth

[🔋William Grassman🔋 @GrassmanWilliam]

$EOSE

🚨👀FIRST PRODUCT DELIVERED FOR INDENSITY?!👀🚨

“PLASTIC SHELL HS CODE:392690 COVER, FOR PSB CSB SNAP IN BACKING PLATE 1000002829 THIS SHIPMENT CONTAINS NO SOLID WOOD PACKING MATERIALS”

HYS PLASTIC CO., LIMITED
HUAYISHENG INDUSTRIAL PARK, NO.4 IN FENGHUANG VILLAGE,FUYONG TOWN, FUYONG 518103 CN

@FreemyerGreg
@philroberts

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@Browpeak For Ondas I get the excitement around the tech stack and M&A moves but what sells you on the execution side?

I see the drone economy winners are going to compete primarily on hardware scalability with increasing pressure on unit economics (not that different from batteries).

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@srvc76 https://t.co/5jFJQKmHPb
I’m getting very interested as well. This discussion was an educated take on the sell off partially fueled by short hedging.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

Bullish things happening in a sector with massive tailwinds but regular dilution coming along for the ride which affects everyone but Cerberus.

Management has a lot of broken trust to earn back with pretty low street expectations currently which allows it that second Cerberus-like surprise breakout event again. Tough stock to own.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@bluszcak44 @GrassmanWilliam Q3 earnings call.

“With multiple partners in place, we’re positioned to have our suppliers build the line every 90 days if needed. That flexibility gives us the ability to stay ahead of demand…”

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

Nothing is safe from the cyborgs. 🏓🤖

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Sony AI’s table tennis robot Ace defeated professional player Miyu Kihara under official ITTF rules.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@AnishP144 @RobertMWild @NateStrande Should be law of diminishing returns on line improvement from here out if Mahaz is doing the job right.

Line 1 was the $50M tuition bill.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

An astute interest list from a long time investor.

They could do a lot of things but I don't think it would move investor sentiment if that is the goal. This is a show me story now not more hand waving of product mods and framework agreements. I fear we won't want to here about the lack of progress in the UK.

A 1 hour Q2 earnings call with substance can cover all these points. Also notice how they didn't answer the retail questions on the last call?

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@GrassmanWilliam Looks like no. The graphic should a 4x4 pallet and the line has a 3x3.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@Cluster_6 Eos has a long regulatory path to hoe in the EU. They need to initiate a preliminary supply base now building qualified second source suppliers to implement future local scaled capacity. This takes years. I hope their supply chain team has dedicated resources tackling this now.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@bert_gilfoyle Assuming they move and retrofit turtle creek Line 1 over and then close down Braddock Ave.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@FreemyerGreg Eos was offering many services and insurance etc before FPUSA though right?

I’d be surprised if a developer needs construction help.

Thinking the purchase / funding wrapper is the main one that gets used until zinc bromide is as common as lithium.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

$EOSE Frontier Power transaction model (with assist of Claude).

(3) Operational transaction scenarios:

1. Tolling agreement — Customer (power company, data center operator, an electricity trading firm) pays Frontier a steady monthly rental fee for the right to decide when the batteries charge and discharge, while Frontier handles the upkeep.

2. Storage Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) — Frontier signs a long-term contract to sell specific services (electricity arbitrage, backup capacity, split-second grid balancing) at prices locked in upfront.

3. Merchant operation — Frontier runs the batteries and sells electricity into the regional wholesale power market at variable rates.

Other US players in the Financial-Sponsor-Backed Storage Independent Power Producer (IPP) space :

- Aypa Power (Blackstone)
- Jupiter Power (BlackRock)
- Plus Power (Independent)
- Spearmint Energy (Kyuden / Nuveen)

I assume Cerberus saw Blackstone & BlackRock running with this model and realized they were ~75% there already tied up with Eos. It prints cash and would help propel Eos market exposure (win-win). Once Eos product is mainstream adopted by other IPPs, following options emerge:

1. Eos exits the JV at a markup.
2. Frontier gets sold whole to a strategic.
3. Frontier becomes a permanent yield platform.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

Definitely will offer services likely through Eos if customer requires (Storage PPA) unless you meant something different?

I think you’re right on sell off for scenarios where the IRR is below ~20%, they will want to sell and reinvest $. Will be interesting to see how the market runs with this.

Any thoughts @AdamLevey7 ?

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@JordanSolace @thejefflutz @PoweredByEos https://t.co/7AAkLNKdBT

[🔋William Grassman🔋 @GrassmanWilliam]

$EOSE
💥

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@GrassmanWilliam Great pilot project. Interesting no immediate market reaction. This is positive that Cerberus and Eos have operationalized it already.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

@philroberts @GrassmanWilliam @NetMelc Interesting no immediate market reaction. This is positive that Cerberus and Eos have operationalized it already.

[John Ryan @beaglebrigade]

Elon educated us with Tesla.

“Prototypes are easy, production is hell."

Bottom line : $EOSE remains a quarter to quarter company fighting to survive.

We are witnessing Eos journey through hell. It didn’t end with Line 1 in Turtle Creek. It began.

They are still in the same survival mode to the other side of line 2 and then line 3. Modeling anything in the hell phase almost doesn’t make sense until they have a mature production system running.

Mahaz is the savior before Cerberus and Frontier Power can work any finance magic.

At Turtle Creek they were selling a vision starving for cash.

At Marshall they are showcasing product and operational maturity starving for bankable production yield.