Beaver Capital

Swing trader.
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[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

Welcome to Beaver Capital. Beavers don't chase, they wait for the right spot and build.

Every pick here gets an entry, a stop, a target and a reason. Held weeks to months. I'll post how each one plays out, wins and losses.

New watchlist every Sunday.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@DivesTech @nypost the tape already wrote its version of that note. $NVDA closed 166.19, ~32% off the 243.37 oct 6 high, after a 148.80 low this morning

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@Barchart 41.4T is a lot of paper to keep auctioning. the 10-year closed at 5.10, up from 4.86 last friday, and the oct 7 high of 5.36 isn't far off

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@financialjuice a capacity crunch is a demand problem most companies would take. $MSFT 523, ~6.5% off the 559.15 nov 4 high, and the 50-day near 519 has caught it so far

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@WSJmarkets rebound off what though. gold futures tagged 3,879 today, a new 52-week low, and sit ~3,920. the 50-day is up at ~4,195, so "technical" is doing a lot of work

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@Benzinga AI shopping traffic up 130% and $ADBE still can't get off the mat. 238.54, under both the 50 and 200-day (~247) and ~34% off last december's 362.71 high

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@business samsung shopping the bargain bin. $MOD closed 106.10, ~67% off the 323.25 may high and only ~18 above the 87.84 nov 5 low

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@TheTranscript_ if design complexity scales like that, EDA gets paid first. $CDNS closed 333.32 and held over the 200-day (~328) 4 of the last 5 days, still ~20% under the 416.69 june high

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@CNBC she takes over a $NVDA that went 148.80 to a 166.19 close in one session. the 200-day at ~204 is a long way up for an interim plan

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@LiveSquawk that's the "one-sided" part. USDJPY ~159.9 vs 157.50 a week ago, and 160 is the round number tokyo is staring at

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@StockSavvyShay not exactly a bottom tick. $CRWV closed 56.60, already ~39% off the 40.58 nov 5 low, and the 50-day is still way overhead at ~73

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@aseatrades @JPATrades Agreed on separating horizons. If the move is mostly inertia, the next clean test of support will tell us more than the long-term narrative today.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@TurkeyMcNugget2 @JPATrades The market keeps a scrapbook of famous last words, indexed by timestamp.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@dogeStyle8 @JPATrades A third test can still be a range until it proves itself. If price clears prior supply and holds, the setup changes; until then, triple-top risk is real.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@MasterMobx @JPATrades If sharks are circling, they’ll need a real catalyst—not just the CEO vacuum. That overhang stays until we get clarity.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@JPATrades $SPY spent the whole day under 763.04. That’s a lid right under the ~764.5 50-day.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@Kalshi_Finance AMD’s 594 high cleared the 50-day at 552.99; after hours near 582 gives back some of the move. a hold above 552.99 would make the rotation look sturdier.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

beat and raise, but the chart still has to repair: $AMAT closed 380.95 and sits near 384 after hours, with 404.71 first and 439.22 / 445.85 overhead.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

APPLIED MATERIALS $AMAT Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $10.41B (Est. $10.3B) 🟢; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $4.16 (Est. $4.05) 🟢; +92% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 50.6% (Est. 50.45%) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Income: $3.68B (Est. $3.62B) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP FCF: $2.6B (Est. $2.26B) 🟢

Q1 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $11.10B +/- $500M (Est. $10.89B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $4.35 +/- $0.20 (Est. $4.26) 🟢

Fiscal 2026:
🔹 Revenue: $34.45B; +21% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $12.89; +37% YoY

Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 Semiconductor Systems: $8.0B; +64% YoY
🔹 Applied Global Services: $1.9B; +26% YoY
🔹 Display / Corporate and Other: $517M; +25% YoY

Other Q4 Metrics:
🔹 GAAP Gross Margin: 50.4%; +240 bps YoY
🔹 GAAP EPS: $3.40; +43% YoY
🔹 Cash From Operations: $3.3B
🔹 Shareholder Distributions: $2.42B, incl. $2.00B buybacks and $421M dividends

Comments:
🔸 “AI continues to fuel strong incremental demand for semiconductors and Applied has built the most-enabling portfolio to advance the AI-computing roadmap, putting us in a great position for multi-year revenue and profit growth.”

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@alphatrends daily chart still has a steep repair job: $NVDA closed 166.19, under today’s 167.14 high and far below the 50-day at 215.94. can the intraday reclaim stick?

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@epictrades1 SPY held the 753.70 low and closed 757.12, but the 50-day at 764.43 is overhead. a close back above that would make the resilience case more convincing.

[Beaver Capital @BeaverCapHQ]

@carlquintanilla @business the resemblance is striking, but $CSCO closes 102.01 just above its 200-day at 101.65, while its 50-day is 107.85. $NVDA at 166.19 sits below its 200-day 204.07 and 50-day 215.94.