Beigemartin

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@Dankata2812 @haralabob @rxgamble @deelotweets Bankroll

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@SamH112358 @craptor Definitely a. This is also just live being a bettor at the close (and not being able to see in play prices), which has its advantages.

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor @HU_Capper But that wouldn't affect overperformancd (vs xg), would it?

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@12Xpert OK, appreciate all your work anyway. Enjoy/gl on world cup

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@12Xpert These are great, thank you. I don't suppose you would be willing to add AH prices, would you?😳

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@_gamechanger_01 @12Xpert You are put off because a new service with a new website is endorsed/partnered by someone with an archaic (but fully functional site?)

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@12Xpert @SNYbetting But the expected payoff is based on the prior, isn't it?

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@octonion For the first q, how about: its the same result we get from portfolio theory. The parley is correlated with both singles, but not perfectly. I think there are proofs that for any concave utility function we will hold all 3 assets (sorry, rusty).

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@octonion My gut (after having done lots of experiments) tells me always (assuming the parlay is fairly priced from the singles).

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@12Xpert https://t.co/sMmOUF2UAO

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@octonion Read it an age ago, but I recall whitrow observing that optimal stakes sometimes appeared to be linearly related to E(Return), despite large variation in odds. Have you seen this at all?

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor https://t.co/gwfMUMr2Xc

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@octonion Can't wait to see this!

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor ... If you do test it then correlation of your bet size with (pin-bf) prices would be interesting (as well as the sims I am sure you would want).

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor Imho you don't need to worry about this because (1) any difference will be small compared to your ROI (2) if you are worried you could just test it to make sure (using bf and pin prices captured before pin went awol)...

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor Do you ever trade out? You could probably lay that benfica line on betfair for a nice lock in...

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@mixedknuts Is it like this on the earlier lines?

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor My suspicion is that choice of books won't matter much and I'm more worried about dead datasources and empty order books.

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor In the big leagues, definitely.

[Beigemartin @beigemartin]

@craptor You know pinnacle is absent /unreliable henceforth in this dataset, don't you? I've switched to b365 because I didn't want to have to worry about the possibility of emptyish exchange order books