Bella L

ISTJ秩序保安｜赛博哑巴型推主｜狗庄认证慈善家｜BD Nerd ｜ @LBank_Exchange Growth & Strategic Partnership ｜ prev. @Gate investment & listing

[徐冲浪 @cyrilxuq]

PDD几年前一直流行一个逻辑，就是黄铮的那篇《把资本主义倒过来》里的理念。

很多媒体当时在说一个逻辑，就是商家在PDD以一种卖保险的形式给消费者做让利，多余的产能通过供应链预定的方式，低价出售给消费者。

在这种逻辑之下，商家卖不掉足够的货的问题被解决了，同时把消费者当成无限的，但是这种说法是有问题的。

其实PDD与阿里的淘宝天猫最大的不同，是PDD把商家当成耗材，阿里把消费者当耗材。

淘天因为白牌商家的低附加值，加上阿里妈妈做的是流量附加值逻辑，阿里长期自己不产生流量，大量的流量来自外采，所以阿里一直是中国第一的PR公司，天量预算。

基于这个逻辑，阿里是把消费者当成耗材的，商家当成现金流来源，不投流的商家就无法长期处于竞争优势，所以你们也就能理解“让天下没有难做的生意”，这句被阿里奉为座右铭的口号，是基于设么���件诞生的了。

于是有阿里很强的需求，把平台上这部分低附加值的白牌产能清除出去，不然还要承担假货的风险，阿里多次被这种理由被市场监管局干过了，很像首都疏解非必要人才的逻辑，于是这部分产能被驱逐，拼多多承接了，商家的耗材逻辑就出现了。

对PDD更合理的解释，是他们假设消费者是有限的，因为这个公司高度追求效率，受到DAU和LTV的影响，所以他们的消费者量级和消费能力，都跟淘天系有差距，那么你凭什么抢阿里的用户？自然要靠低价产品逻辑，逼商家让利，所以他们是走的农村包围城市路线，不断虹吸被市场淘汰的白牌产能，让利给消费者，因为最后都是要消费者来买单的，羊毛出在羊身上。

这才是PDD能起来的逻辑，也是为什么不断有小商家联合起来对���，但是不得不服从PDD的流量调剂。

至于什么砍一刀，什么压榨员工，经常被人拿来诟病，说PDD这个公司不是一个本分的公司啦，什么加班时间长啦，各种黑，其实这都不影响PDD是个本分的公司，它的核心就一件事：怎么从商家身上压榨出更多利益，然后传导给普通消费者，哪怕商品质量不够高。

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

一次取消转发而已 你们至于吗？$memes 直接腰斩？我还以为白宫删推了呢

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

The winning will continue. The deportations will continue. The memes will continue.

One year of us ❤️

[Haseeb ＞|＜ @hosseeb]

LPs sometimes ask me who I think the best VC investors in crypto are.

I think about this a lot.

Ever since I started as a crypto VC, I have wanted to be the best. I’m deeply driven by competition, and investing is as pure of a competition as it gets. Only one person can win the deal, only one person can pick the winner of the cycle.

But when you honestly look at it and do the accounting, there are three people who have proven themselves the GOATs of crypto VC investing.

This is going to seem like glazing (it is) and probably not interesting to anyone who's not a crypto VC. But I am. So this is for all of us who make this our life’s work.

Here are my all-time top 3.

#3. @danrobinson (@paradigm)

There’s a legendary story about how Mike Speiser, Managing Partner at Sutter Hill Ventures, incubated Snowflake, which went on to become a $75B company. A VC adding that much value to a portfolio company is basically unheard of.

Dan Robinson is the Mike Speiser of crypto.

Again and again, Dan has been at the ground floor of generational companies in crypto. He was there from the very beginning of Uniswap, literally a co-author and foundational contributor to Uniswap V3, which became the backbone of on-chain spot trading. He was a critical contributor at the beginning of Flashbots, which birthed modern MEV auctions. And he was an early research contributor to Plasma, the predecessor of modern rollups, which led to him leading the seed round of Optimism.

Dan is a genuine polymath. He breaks the mold of a traditional VC. He started as a securities lawyer, then became a self-taught protocol architect and mathematician, and is now a self-taught investor. Perhaps the greatest investment that @matthuang ever made was hiring Dan. When we lose deals to Paradigm, so often it’s because people say: yeah you guys are great, but sorry, I have to work with Dan.

The scariest investors are people who can do more than just invest. Dan saw where it was all going, and he rolled up his sleeves and helped make it happen, multiple times. That’s what makes him one of the greatest to ever do it, and earns him his spot on the crypto Mt. Rushmore.

#2. @cdixon (@a16zcrypto)

Chris Dixon is the OG’s OG. He saw it before anyone. Before Chris, crypto VC was minor leagues.

He was the first mainstream VC to throw his hat in the ring and publicly bet his career on crypto. He was the first to adapt the language of VC to crypto and network investing. He was the first to socialize these concepts with Silicon Valley and its universe of institutional LPs. So many concepts we bandy about every day in our IC, we stole directly from Chris. It’s not an exaggeration to say I am walking along the train tracks that Chris set down originally for himself.

There are two most important deals that I attribute to Chris Dixon. The first, of course, is Coinbase. Chris led the Series B of Coinbase in 2013, at a time when the industry was still fledgling and none of this was obvious. That deal is the apotheosis of the Dixon-ism—"what the smartest people are doing on the weekends is what everyone else will be doing in 10 years." He had the foresight to do that deal, and then doubled down to go all-in on the industry. It was so much harder to do what we are now doing at the time when Chris first did it.

Second deal was Uniswap. Almost everyone who saw the Uniswap Series A passed on the deal ($100M FDV—Uniswap was still tiny back then). At the time we were having heated debates about whether AMMs were capital-efficient enough, whether they’d face too much adverse selection, whether they were too easily forkable. Paradigm passed (despite leading the seed round), we passed as well, and from what I’ve heard, everyone else at the a16z IC didn’t want to do the deal.

But Chris? Chris supposedly said: “A smart contract that can buy and sell anything? That sounds so cool. Who knows what will happen—let’s just do it.” And he was right. It was cool. All sorts of non-obvious things would happen because of what permissionless AMMs enabled. I learned a big lesson after passing on that Series A.

I disagree with the a16z worldview in many ways. But everyone in this industry owes Chris enormous credit. He has single-handedly done more than any other VC to put the industry onto the cultural footing it now has, has fought tooth and nail with his career to legitimize crypto in DC, and has earned us cultural recognition as a positive frontier technology. So much of the language we use about crypto was imbibed directly from Chris.

Crypto VC would not be where it is today were it not for Chris Dixon championing it as early as he did. For that, we owe him deep gratitude.

And that leads to the #1 VC of all time...

#1. @KyleSamani (@multicoin)

Kyle, Kyle, Kyle.

I give Kyle a lot of shit. He rubs a lot of people—including me—the wrong way. All the time.

But investing is like a sport. At the end of the day, you either put up points on the board, or you don’t.

And Kyle has put up the most points of anyone. The sheer scale of PnL he made from his Solana seed round investment, the amount of work he did for that deal, someone will write a book about it someday, and I’ll be grimacing the whole time while I read it.

You see, the best investors are contrarians. And Kyle is a true contrarian. To be a contrarian doesn’t mean that you write a hot take that gets a bunch of people to say "wow that was smart." If everyone wants to retweet you, by definition you’re not a contrarian. You’ll know you’re a true contrarian when you piss people off. When people think you’re an idiot. When they think you’re lighting your money on fire.

Kyle is one of the only true contrarians in crypto. I disagree with him about almost everything. But his original investment and subsequent conviction on holding Solana through the depths of the valley of darkness after the collapse of FTX, make him, bar none, the best VC investor in crypto history.

We always say that venture is a power law business. Kyle and his legendary Solana investment is precisely what we all mean by that. Sometimes it genuinely only takes one deal.

And that’s what makes Kyle the best crypto VC of all time.

So that’s my top 3.

---

LPs sometimes ask where I think I should go on this list.

As much as I think highly of myself—and boy do I think highly of myself—I don’t think I’m top 3. I’m top 10 for sure, and there’s an argument for top 5, but I’m not better than any of these three. I hope to be, someday, before I’m done. And if you break it out by seasons, there are seasons I’ve done better than each of them.

But in aggregate? These three are the best to ever do it.

It’s not helpful to Dragonfly for me to praise our competitors. But there’s a game bigger than the game. You see, this is a hard industry to be an investor in—most of the peers I’ve had along the way have not survived. Crypto is brutal.

As much as I compete with these guys every day, I have enormous respect for them. I've seen them evolve through almost a decade of ups and downs. We've all endured through the vicissitudes of crypto together to support our founders, to support this industry, and to help it stand shoulder-to-shoulder next to any other technology. As I was doing some end-of-year reflection, I thought it was worth acknowledging them in an industry that often doesn't give out much praise to VCs.

Each of these people have done a lot for me, whether they know it or not. I've learned so much from each of them. And I genuinely hope they are proud of what they’ve accomplished.

Dan Robinson saw it clearly.

Chris Dixon saw it first.

And Kyle Samani saw it through.

Hats off, gentlemen. Here’s to another vintage of competition. 🫡

[Noir Creates @noironx]

https://t.co/g9JM8Ocs5d

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

#2026Tips
Remember to poop before midnight on Dec 31st. You don't wanna be carrying the same shit into next year. 😅

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

@AirdropAlchemis @guyiguyi_ 真的可以了 叔

[解构师 Beyond @0xBeyondLee]

暴论：如果你在 12 月，没听说过 Aztec 和 CCA，那么足以证明，你的信息获取渠道就是一坨屎

因为整个西方都在疯狂 fomo Aztec，研究 CCA 机制，热度不低于东方的 BBW 亲嘴和脱裤子事件

这非常好证明，通过 XHunt 插件即可

- Aztec(@aztecnetwork) 项目排名 195

- 作为对照，在中文推特更热的 Aster ���排名 238

没刷到过不是你的错，因为 Aztec 确实没怎么做中文宣发，毕竟花香蝶自来，但刷到了却不重视，那就真没救了

没人讲，但我得讲，这篇文章会尽力让认知配得上的人看懂 Aztec 和 CCA

❚ 沉睡 7 年的巨人 Aztec

简单讲 Aztec 是一个以太坊隐私扩展层，一个 ETH L2

但以下四点，任意单独一点拿出来，都支撑得起 Aztec 超级天王定位

- Aztec 融资 1.2 亿美金，作为对比，因为公募备受关注的 MegaETH 融资 3000 万美金

- 当年 A16Z 以 12 亿美元的估值入场，带头砸了 1 亿美金

- Vitalik 曾亲自作为第 0 号贡献者，参与了 Aztec 的主网启动点火仪式

- Aztec 是第一个去中心化 ETH Layer2，已经持续做了 7 年，只是一直没发币，类似于 Base

- 为了保证 Aztec 的公募更加公平，Uniswap 和其联合开发了 CCA 拍卖机制

此时此刻，这样的庞然大物正在苏醒，公募拍卖临近尾声

❚ 这颗星球上最公平的链上拍卖模式 CCA

Continuous Clearing Auction 连续清算拍卖，Uniswap 和 Aztec 联合开发后，第一次得以展露拳脚

我看了很多资料，问了无数 AI 才终于搞懂原理

- CCA 是根据区块出价和结算的拍卖方式

- 参与者只需设置自身接受的最高价，系统便持续在不同区块中轮动匹配

- 同一区块会生成同一清算价，较高出价优先成交、同价按比例分配，成交者支付同一价格

- 拍卖结束后，自动组建 Uniswap v4 池子

- 大户不能包场，科���家没法抢筹，大家都在同一起跑线

可以预想到的是 CCA 这一最公平的链上拍卖方式，绝不会止步于 Aztec，一定会在之后公募中大放异彩

❚ 看懂了就去印钞吧

Aztec 拍卖链接 https://t.co/BzBDBml7Eb

距离拍卖结束还有 34 小时

TGE 计划在 26 年 2 月，届时将会 100% 解锁

拍卖设定的底价为 98,493 ETH，约 2.95 亿美元 FDV，这个价格比 A16Z 当年便宜 75%，真的是抄到 VC 大动脉了

值得注意的是，Atzec 拍卖还需要 KYC 不过并不复杂

- 官网点击 Enter 进入

- 链接钱包，选择国家，扫码下载 ZKPassport App

- 完成 KYC 后回到网站，Mint Aztec 公售专用 NFT 至钱包，完成流程

/

这篇文章，我写了很久很久，通过咨询相关从业者、AI、KOL 多方核验才最终呈现

建议收藏，不仅因为 Aztec 很难讲清楚，还因为你大概率在未来还要多次见到 CCA 这一拍卖模式

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

@Elizabethofyou 之前说不再回应，又若无其事地发了其他推，我以为这姐真能挺过去呢，看来是真受影响了IRL

[动察Beating @BeatingOfficial]

https://t.co/s1XvWSHVJa

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

给烧成无限城了woc

[iGeekbb @igeekbb]

香港这火也太吓人了，都 2025 年了，还能起这么大的火。深圳的��防车都集结在莲塘口岸，想要过去帮忙救火，结果人家不需要，说消防处评估有足够能力扑灭火灾……

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

ALL IN BITCOIN

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

Dear Santa,

Cash.

#Christmas2025

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

$FORM ntm要跌到哪儿去 有没有底了 小心我插你屁眼儿@Four_FORM_

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

@Ru7Longcrypto 尿液流过屁股沟 我的真心被你偷😍😍😍

[某在斯 @Mou_zaisi]

百家乐有个玩法叫��红蓝，两边的胜率都接近 50%，本质上就是赌硬币正反面。

在欧洲刚兴起时，这玩法没人太感兴趣——最傻的人也知道概率是独立事件，没什么“技巧”可言，也没人愿意压重注。

可到了澳门，情况变了。
澳门的赌场老板只做了一件极简单、极天才、也极邪恶的事：
把每一把红蓝的结果写在牌子上，叫“牌路”。

从那一刻起，赌徒像被点了穴一样开始研究起牌路来：
“这条红龙这么长，下一个肯定转蓝！”
“你看这条路红蓝交替，好明显的节奏，下一个必红！”

结果？
不仅来赌的人更多了，押注也更大了——
因为他们以为自己看懂了规律。

而我想说：
那些在预测市场上教人赚“free money”的人，
或者教人新币上线后必空的人，
比研究牌路的赌徒还蠢。

至少在百家乐里，下一把是红还是蓝，
真的有 50% 的公平性。

但在预测市场和新币首空的世界里：
当所有人都押红时，开蓝的概率反而更高；
当所有人都押蓝时，结果偏偏更容易跳红。

也就是说，
赌场的牌路虽然是错觉，
但至少不主动跟你作对。

预测市场和新币首空？
那是敌人会根据你站哪边来决定打你哪边。

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

@GordonGekko Nov. 31 will be incredibly BULLISH

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

@timotimo007 这个行情 喝点红苕稀饭得了

[Bella L @bellaliu650]

Please come back to my entry