Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek

Senior researcher at School of Management at the ZHAW. Interested in international economics, trade, public finance and taxation. All opinions are personal.

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

At the @ZHAW Swiss Managers Survey we find that not only the view of politicians, but as well from managers. Will this be the century of declining US dominance?

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Americans, understandably focused on the (past and present) antics of Donald Trump, tend to underestimate the shift in elite European views toward China

1/

[Martin Braml @MartinBraml]

Weil ich aus Business-Kreisen manchmal das Argument höre, dass #Trumps Zölle ja wirklich Arbeitsplätze schaffen könnten.

Der Konsens ist, dass Handelspolitik mittelfristig beschäftigungsneutral ist, Arbeitslosigkeit im Wesentlichen über Arbeitsmarktdeterminanten bestimmt wird (Mindestlohn, Marktmacht, Kündigungsschutz, Steuern & Transfers).

[Ausnahme: In Situationen von Unterauslastung kann das anders sein (keynesianische Nachfragekrise), weshalb in solchen Phasen gerne zu Zöllen gegriffen wird (Beispiel Weltwirtschaftskrise/Great Depression).]

Warum?

Die USA sind aber im Großen und Ganzen eine voll ausgelastet Volkswirtschaft mit Arbeitslosigkeit von 4%. Auch die Inflation von 2,8% deutet darauf hin. Und das Leistungsbilanzdefizit von 3,9% ist eben auch Folge exzessiver Staatsverschuldung — kurzum: die heimische Nachfrage kann nicht gedeckt werden durch heimische Produktion.

Man mag normativ diskutieren, ob das wünschenswert wäre (habe da große Zweifel), aber das spielt für das Argument keine Rolle:

Die #USA können nicht durch Zölle plötzlich mehr produzieren, die realen Kapazitäten sind nun mal beschränkt, insbesondere wegen Vollbeschäftigung. Das heißt, für jeden Kühlschrank, der jetzt in den USA gebaut werden soll, muss irgendwas anderes weniger gebaut werden. Und im Zweifel eben Dinge, die ohne Zölle am Markt erfolgreicher wären.

Damit erzeugt Trump nicht mehr Wohlstand insgesamt, aber einzelne Gruppen können profitieren, insbesondere Industriearbeiter. Sie werden gefragter, ihre Löhne steigen (bis sie die Inflation frisst).

Im Ergebnis hat die Handelspolitik keinen Einfluss auf die aggregierte Beschäftigung, sehr wohl aber auf die *Beschäftigungsstruktur*.

@GFelbermayr @FuestClemens @jsuedekum @schieritz @maurerchr

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

Can’t wait

[Chad P. Bown @ChadBown]

EMERGENCY PODCAST EPISODE

Trade Talks is back!

Tariffs from the new U.S. President call for an emergency relaunch of the longstanding trade podcast. @Aime_Williams joins to explain what happened with Canada, Mexico, and China.
https://t.co/LDt07OMxpp

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

Hot take by @YannLecunAI:
„Gen AI is dead in three years“
@wef

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

Cool real time AI story telling, showing what is possible already @wef by @virtualmagician in the Dome Imagination in Action @MIT .

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

@StreckerNM @GeorgThunecke
?

[Isabela Manelici @imanelici]

Call for Papers is out for the STEG Annual Conf. & Theme Workshops @cepr_org. Held @OxfordEconDept, Jan 8-11, 25. Submit by Oct 6. Broad topic range: structural transf., trade & spatial, industrial policies, political econ. Happy to organise this round w/ @GUlyssea & @loraulet🙌

[Isabela Manelici @imanelici]

Call for Papers is out for the STEG Annual Conf. & Theme Workshops @cepr_org. Held @OxfordEconDept, Jan 8-11, 25. Submit by Oct 6. Broad topic range: structural transf., trade & spatial, industrial policies, political econ. Happy to organise this round w/ @GUlyssea & @loraulet🙌

[Amber Peterman @a_peterman]

.@UNUWIDER's annual development conference next year is on social protection!

Conference is 9-11 June 2025 in Helsinki + papers due 15 Sept ⬇️

"We particularly encourage submissions from early-
career, female & researchers from the Global South"

https://t.co/PnIoIBLZdi

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

Check put our paper at @IIPF_org on the challenges of developing countries when an important source of tax revenues is declining: import tariffs!

[Nora Strecker @StreckerNM]

Glad to be back @IIPF_org for the 80th Congress. Presenting work with @GeorgThunecke and @benediktzoller on the effect of tariff reductions using South African admin data. @UNUWIDER #SATIED.

[Nora Strecker @StreckerNM]

Glad to be back @IIPF_org for the 80th Congress. Presenting work with @GeorgThunecke and @benediktzoller on the effect of tariff reductions using South African admin data. @UNUWIDER #SATIED.

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

@StreckerNM @IIPF_org @GeorgThunecke @UNUWIDER :)

[Ronald Indergand @ronaldindergand]

We’re looking for a microeconomist (D/F) to help shape Switzerland’s competition policy. You will be in charge of developing rules for state-owned enterprises and contribute to the development of antitrust law and the establishment of a state aid regime.
https://t.co/aeTkQhFy83

[Meredith A. Crowley @MeredithCrowle1]

Open call for papers and sessions!

IEFS is sponsoring sessions at the SEA meetings in Wash, DC 23-25 November 2024.

JEL areas F1-F6: int'l trade, finance, open economy macro, FDI, int'l political economy - are welcome!

Deadline: 1 April 2024

https://t.co/uKF3u9YTp6

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

@Amedeo_Piolatto Egger et al 2020 might be interesting for you. https://t.co/KH6COvA6Cs
They argue that taxes can be seen aa a bargaining problem between firms and tax authorities, where larger and more footloose firms have more bargaining power.

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

Why is this important? Because lumping exporting and non-exporting MNEs together will create a downward bias of the MNE wage premium. Consequently, location promotion policies should target exporting MNEs.

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

🎇Publication 🎇
Publication with Pinar Gunes Kaynak and Peter Egger in Empirical Economics about MNE wage premium. https://t.co/oqsYeinEv3 It is well established that MNEs pay on average better than non-MNEs. In this paper, we take a more granular view on this.

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

We use a multivariate endogenous treatment model based on the approach of Wooldridge (1995) to establish a causal relationship between average wages and firm status. Our results are based on data of southeastern European countries between 2007 and 2017.

[Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek @benediktzoller]

Bob Solow died at the age of 99 years today. His contribution greatly impacted my research and teaching. I still remember the cafè solo I had with Solow at Pompue Fabra in 2007.
Rest in peace.

[Clément de Chaisemartin @CdeChaisemartin]

Happy to release new version of "Difference-in-Differences for Continuous Treatments and Instruments with Stayers", with Xavier, @FelixPasquier, and @gvazquezbare! Thread giving you the gist of the paper available under nicer skies than in Paris.
https://t.co/LijzZvciZK