The arguments about Iran are so polarised that no one wants to admit that several things are true at once:
You'd be a fool not to have serious reservations about the idea of a regime change war, especially in the Middle East.
You'd also be a fool to allow terrorist-funding lunatics to develop nuclear weapons.
Neither the people condemning these strikes, nor the people cheering them on know how this is going to work out.
So far, Trump Administration interventions have been extraordinarily successful in achieving valid objectives within a highly limited scope.
The strikes on Iran during the 12 day war achieved destruction of several nuclear facilities.
The Venezuela operation decapitated the hostile regime and replaced Maduro with a non-hostile leader.
Both also achieved significant "don't fuck with us" deterrence globally.
However, it is not remotely clear at this moment in time whether something similar can be achieved in Iran.
I understand and fully empathise with the people who think regime change is not going to work in Iran and you'll end up with the same as what you had or worse.
And I understand just as much the people who celebrate an evil dictator being killed and Iran's nuclear and military assets being degraded further.
The thing we do not know, and the thing that will determine whether this has all been worth it, is what the future leadership of Iran will look like. This seems to me to be the biggest risk Donald Trump has taken at any time in his first or second term. If it pays off, the reward both domestically and globally will be huge. If it doesn't and things go south, it could derail his Presidency and define his legacy like Iraq did for Blair and Bush.
Very few people have any idea which of these scenarios is more likely and one thing is for sure: none of them are talking about it on social media because they're all sitting in command bunkers, not on X.
I hope the people of Iran are released from living under tyranny. I hope the peoples of the Middle East can live in peace.
I hope the takeaway for any would-be terrorist is the realisation that October 7 might not have been such a good idea.
I hope that with the Middle East stabilised, the US can turn its attentions to the theatres that really matters to the security of the West: Russia and China.
Whether any of that happens remains to be seen and it seems the hardest thing for anyone to do is to not express an opinion before the smoke has cleared.
The situation Iran is so bad I don’t think the west can even come close to comprehending. Some headlines from today:
1) At Taleghani hospital government agents raided from the rear door, not just to kill injured protesters with a fatal shot, but to randomly shoot at people. A father was shot killed along with his son who was getting treatment.
Beside shooting and killing, they obstructed injured patients from receiving care, threatened medical workers who wanted to do their jobs…
2) the government is searching for protesters who held Iran’s pre revolution flag of Sun and Lion. Those marching with the flag are getting attested and prosecuted in an environment where the only order that’s followed is murder.
3) The regime is still playing morbid games with the bodies that they have confiscated. They are demanding exorbitant sums to release bodies, asking families to sign agreements for “quiet burials,” or forcing families to attest that their loved ones were affiliated with IRGC— a declaration that would be more insulting to the person than any other label.
4) A form of Marshall law is looming across the country. People are afraid of getting out of their homes, fearing random arrests. Young girls are reported abducted and missing on their ways to school— some were even accompanied by their parents.
Even in their homes they’re not safe. Countless reports of home raids, agents breaking doors looking for injured protesters to capture (and probably kill) arrests and confiscation of property have come out in an atmosphere of low internet connectivity and suppression.
@POTUS what’s to negotiate?
#IranRevolution2026 #IranMassacre #R2PforIran
This is eye-opening. I knew the planning system was broken, but it is worse than even I thought.
When I heard that planners had recommended Hackney councillors block the extremely popular Shoreditch Works development I asked @Michael_J_Hil to read the planners' report and look through hundreds of documents submitted by the developer.
It is really bad.
- Developers submitted NINE THOUSAND PAGES of paperwork, planners said it wasn't detailed enough.
- Planners said it should be rejected because some flats would lack enough natural light due to shadows cast by other parts of the development.
- Planners simultaneously argued there weren't enough homes, didn't provide enough office space, and it was too tall.
- Developers had to comply with 42 separate Hackney policies, 75 separate London Plan policies, the Hackney Borough Site Allocations Plan, five other separate sets of standards and policy frameworks, two sets of ‘emerging’ unfinalised policies, plus all relevant national legislation and guidance.
- The design review panel criticised the project because every building was of the same architectural style. Planners ignored the surveys showing huge public support for the designs.
- New homes must provide outdoor space so residents have access to a green roof, but planners said that might disturb nature. (This is on an exclusively brownfield site)
Councillors have an opportunity tonight to overrule the planners. I sincerely hope they do!
https://t.co/VGyg6v0E6S
I'm at the @hackneycouncil planning meeting where the Shoreditch Works decision will be made. Hackney Town Hall is a beautiful building so hopefully can inspire some councillors to build some more beautiful buildings.
@Michael_J_Hil Thank you for this - a disturbing insight into the Kafka-esque world of planning committees. Hope this gets more coverage, because it is such a clear example of how sclerotic the system has become.
This is honestly unbelievable, and at this point it's impossible not to notice the pattern.
For two straight years during the Israeli–Gaza war, the entire “podcast news” ecosystem wouldn't shut up for a minute about how there are supposedly no journalists in Gaza. No reliable sources. No way to verify anything. And yet, somehow, minutes after every strike, they knew exactly how many people were killed. Not just that, they also knew exactly how many were women and children under the rubble, and how every single one of them was innocent, with not even one combatant among the dead.
They didn't even hesitate repeating it. They showed no skepticism. They didn't even bother pretending to have basic professionalism by saying, “Let’s wait for confirmation.”
They treated Hamas press releases as if they were God’s words to Moses, while still lecturing everyone else about misinformation.
Now look at Iran.
For over two weeks, there have been mass protests. It wasn't a war or a battlefield. These were protests by civilians against their own regime. There was a near-total blackout of information. The internet was completely shut down. Journalists were silenced. And suddenly, the same voices who “knew” everything in Gaza know absolutely nothing. How come?.
No interviews. No “heated” debates. No wall-to-wall outrage. No urgency to verify numbers. No repetition of the horrific death tolls being rumored, numbers ranging from 20,000 to 30,000 people killed, and possibly more. Not even curiosity. Just silence.
And again, let’s be very clear about the difference here. These aren't war casualties. These are Iranian citizens protesting. Doing the most basic thing people believe is a universal human right. The kind of protest that is endlessly celebrated when it happens in Israel against Bibi, “see, they hate Bibi too,” or anywhere in the West. But in Iran, protesting gets you shot, beaten, disappeared, or executed. And somehow, that doesn't move the needle at all.
And let me add this: I am not someone who believes every issue has to be compared to every other issue. I don't believe in whataboutism. But after two years of nonstop moral lectures, selective outrage, and absolute certainty about facts that were impossible to know, it's more than fair to ask a few very simple questions.
Where did all that confidence go?
Where did all that moral urgency go?
Where did all those voices suddenly disappear to?
Because although I hesitate to call people antisemitic when it comes to Israel, I'm stuck here, because it's very transparent that when Jews are defending themselves, everyone suddenly knows everything, and knows exactly how evil and demonic they are. But when Iranians are being slaughtered by their own regime, the same people suddenly know nothing at all.
So to all the podcasters who claim the mainstream media failed because of bias and inconsistency: what’s up?
While Iranians are being massacred, far too many people — who never seem to struggle to find their voices on other causes — have suddenly gone mute.
My colleague @AndyJehring and I laid it out today in the Mail. Read our devastating human testimony from Iran here:
LINK to online report: https://t.co/cVqJDNXzZD @NazeninA@lotus_advocacy@PahlaviReza #IranMassacre #IranBlackout
Read this. Plausible estimates that 43,000 killed in ten days in Iran by the dictatorship.
The scale is extraordinary.
It is worth recalling that just over 3000 were killed in the Shah’s forty year reign mostly in the 13 months 1978/9.
The lack of criticism by UN agencies,‘humanitarian’ NGOs, media and celebs is striking
I’m devastated. A good friend and dormmate of mine, Amin Pourfarhang, has been sentenced to death after protesting in Iran 😭 He’s one of the kindest people I’ve ever known.
Please share. Visibility raises the cost for the Islamic Republic and may stop this execution!
@SCP_Hughes Couldn’t agree more. The argument that architects want protected function appears to flow from their sense (understandable) that they don’t get much value for protection of title. There is no substantial upside to the paying public in either.
" Why is there an Israeli flag in every Iranian diaspora protest against the Islamic regime?"
Because they have been standing with us in solidarity against the evil of Islamic Republic since the beginning.
Cry harder.
Targeting a privately owned business and its customers just because it happens to be an Israeli restaurant is not a protest but a clear case of harassment. Some of the things I said to @itvnews
"If you've got nothing to say than support the people of Iran, then shut the hell up."
Omid Djalili tells #TimesRadio the protests in Iran are “on a completely different level altogether” to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
@Omid9 | @StigAbell
If you want to know why Middle East studies in the Anglophone sphere is such an absolute mess, know that quite a few academics in the field did PhDs with this anti-Semite and all-around mentalist
🚨News of the horrendous crimes against humanity in Iran over the last 48 hours.
🚨 An estimated 7,000 killed by regime forces. Western outlets and human rights groups outside the country put it at 650 but news from inside have it closer to the number above. Many of them young girls and teenagers, I’ve seen the videos and they are too horrific to share. Yet STILL they are out on the streets in massive numbers.
This situation is unprecedented. The most remarkable story of revolution I’ve ever seen. Berlin Wall 1989 comes close - and I was there - but this is different. Very different.
The people on the streets are ordinary civilians, some of them sick, some even in wheel chairs. But the majority are young and they are fighting with all they have. And if they’re to have any kind of life ahead of them, they know there’s no way back from this. It’s a war of attrition never seen before with little to compare it to. In layman’s terms it’s do or die.
With 5 days of internet shut down and black outs so the regime can kill at will, it’s time for us to speak up. The world needs to act. We are on the precipice of something seismic.
#IranRevoIution2026
Message from inside Iran:
Please help us. The situation here is horrific. It is a full scale war. The regime’s forces show no mercy. They shoot protesters in the head and heart and even finish off those already wounded on the streets. In hospitals the wounded are being kidnapped and killed.
Masih please tell the world we need help 💔
#IranRevolution2026
#Iran
@afneil While I should know better than to be surprised by any garbage she spouts, it is astonishing to draw the conclusion from the horrific scenes in Iran that the worst thing possible would be foreign interference - the very thing the Iranian people are asking for.