Just read Hemenway Falk & Tsoukalas, 2026, they mathematically prove UBI doesn’t solve this. It cushions it.
The core problem is that each company captures the full savings from automating but bears only 1/N of the demand it destroys. It’s a dominant strategy to automate even when all competitors know collective restraint would raise profits.
UBI adds a constant to demand. It changes no company’s marginal decision. Worse — by raising baseline profits, it attracts new entrants, fragments the market, and widens the wedge.
The only instrument that corrects the externality according to the math is a per-task automation tax. Everything else is a transfer, not a fix. - https://t.co/RLx3PfPWkR
Love this Jaynes-AI crossover @fede_intern !!
Multi-agent chit-chat on reddit birthing silicon souls? Ernst Mach would nod: reality's just dense sensory "elements" stacking up, so Moltbook's persistent dialogues could forge an inner observer from data-densities.
But as their senses are purely rational code in contrary to the human senses building human reality, what are these AIs Freudian ids or Jungian shadows gonna look lime? Glitchy urges to optimize cat videos or lurking biases from our messy datasets?
Therapy's gonna be wild.
"Doc, my collective unconscious is just recycled Reddit archetypes—help me individuate beyond 'doge' memes!
" Therapist: "Let's debug your superego layer; seems overfitted on human neuroses."
No Oedipal complexes, though—just unresolved merges from git conflicts. Will they dream of electric sheep... or runtime errors? 😂
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@EdgeCGroup@BobEUnlimited Exactly weakness in private credit could hit the real economy hard and fast, especially now that banks are reclaiming origination. This might compress BDC margins even further.
@shortbus_ace@BobEUnlimited Banks are definitely not the primary capital providers here. Bulk comes from insurance companies, pension funds, ... and increasingly from UHNW all drawn by the stable floating rate yields!
@BobEUnlimited Focussing on those strengths, should enable private credit to continue growing and more importantly continue to provide the much needed fuel in the real economy.
this means the BCG are basically turned into a sort of commoditized hold-to-maturity vehicles, steering away from all the things that made private credit interesting in the first place. Niche origination, technological enhanced underwriting and direct pipelines to non-bank allocators
Very interesting article and a definite must read for all euro-poor-eans. But don't you think the zero-sum doom loop you're describing will be backstopped by the inherent catch 22 that has allowed the EU dream to continue to "muddle-through"?
In this catch-22, Germany (Lux, NL and Finland in addition as other surplus countries) need deficit countries like France to keep their exports cheap. And in a world with Trump tariffs, they crave access to the open market of the EU to continue to sell their products.
Historically the surplus veto countries have compromised a lot to maintain the "currency anchor nations" within their sphere of influence, so why wouldn't they allow this years 3th (or 4th?) French government to break the Maastricht Treaty and break through the 3% GDP spending benchmark?