Convex_Bets

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Open Interest in CBOE SPX option is 25.2M at the 97th percentile over the last year.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

In Education of A Speculator, Vic Niederhoffer asks Bookie, "What's the secret of winning consistently without risk?" Bookie says," Live a good, balanced life." Good advice.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Daily correlation long bond to SPX:

1-Year Rolling Correlation: +0.28 
• 3-Year Rolling Correlation: +0.19 
• 5-Year Rolling Correlation: +0.10 
• 10-Year Rolling Correlation: -0.07 
• All-Time Historical Baseline: -0.24 

Ever changing cycles. What does it signify?

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

After a new all time high the first pullback is bullish.

[Gregory Zuckerman @GZuckerman]

RIP Victor Niederhoffer, the legendary speculator. He kept his trading room so hot I was dripping on a visit (he didn't believe in AC, said fresh air was conducive to his thinking).
Victor had an unmatched appetite for risk, once writing: "I am a speculator, and my daily bread depends on reversing big moves...When I hear the 'thunderous roar and hiss of escaping steam' from the market...I know it's time to jump in."
He told me: "I have complete trepidation about going under again. I have seven kids and I couldn't afford that...But I don't know how to make money without a lot of risk."
A year later, he suffered big losses and closed his fund.
Lessons for 24-year-olds running $45 billions funds and the rest of us, too. #RIP
https://t.co/r1Wi9mRcY0

[Omid Malekan @malekanoms]

Yesterday marked the passing of my old mentor Victor Niederhoffer. Victor was a pioneer of what today we call quant trading, a famous (and at times infamous) hedge fund manager, best-selling author, squash national champion, major collector, art and music benefactor, and most of all, the greatest human connector I ever met.

It was through him that I met many of my greatest friends, business partners, and teachers. He introduced me to the person who gave me my first internship, and the one who taught me to ride freight trains, the one who gave me my first job as a trader, the person who introduced me to crypto, and the editor on my last book.

I literally cannot imagine what my life would have been like if he hadn't responded to my cold email as a clueless college freshman all those years ago. In retrospect, that's the ultimate sign of a life well lived.

If you like to read, then I highly recommend his book The Education of a Speculator. It's one of the very few timeless investment books. Beautifully written, moving, and inspiring.

[Jeffrey A. Hirsch @AlmanacTrader]

Victor Niederhoffer passed away yesterday at the age of 82.
"When an old man dies, a library burns down." — Old African Proverb
The venerable, quintessential speculator has made his final trade. A truly remarkable man. An inspiration to the Almanac from the beginning.
https://t.co/IL0H4zzck3

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER WILL BE MISSED

In today's newsletter, I wrote about the time I unexpectedly was put on the official agenda of one of his parties, and how I witnessed firsthand the incredibly devoted community had built in real life and online.

RIP to a true New Yorker.

[Anyon @AnyonCurve]

Victor Niederhoffer - may his memory be a blessing.

The effect of this great man's early work on quantitative trading cannot be measured. His track record for some 20 years was unmatched. He told me over lunch circa. 2014 at The Harvard Club in NYC about all his mistakes - not a word about his wins.

He taught me it was almost always better to catch the 'other side' of the distribution [IYKYK]. He chastised me at times for not going for the kill when the edge was strong and growing. He taught that each speculation stands alone and the conditions that created it would never precisely repeat.

My favourite two sayings of his:

"..The mouse with one hole is quickly cornered.." - Have more than one way to exit a trade.

"..When you take into account the bid-ask spreads on out-of-the-money options, the edge is thousands of times less than zero.."

Goodbye. I love you.

[Laurel @LaurelKenner]

Victor Niederhoffer, pioneer of statistical arbitrage and five-time squash champion, dies at 82 https://t.co/uoQA112jhA

[Petr Pinkhasov @pinkhasov]

Rest in peace to a truly great man. End of an era but those of us who were lucky enough to work with him have to carry on the torch of benevolence and looking at markets through a truly unique way. My condolences to Vic's family and all friends.

[Scott Brooks @ScottBrooksFTA]

We lost a legend yesterday, Vic Niederhoffer.

My life intersected with Vic's in the way that so many things do...completely by random.

Because of Vic inviting me into his world, my life was forever changed in a way that a guy like me, a guy from the lower class, could never imagine.

There are a only a few circumstances and people in one's life...those defining moments or chance encounters...that lead us to a life a greater life.

My encounter with Vic and subsequent relationship dating back to 2004 was just such an encounter and Vic was just such a man.

I'm grateful to Vic for the kindness that was shown to me and my family....kindness he didn't have give, but did...and that kindness changed my life!

Thank you, Vic!

[Andy Aiken @meta_cap]

Rest in peace, Victor Niederhoffer. He was a great man and one of the most interesting people I have known. I try to live by his example of lateral thinking and learning from other insightful people regardless of their status or credentials. I was fortunate to have gotten to know him through the NYC Junto and later, having the opportunity to work with him.

My condolences to Susan and his children.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Rest in Peace, Victor Niederhoffer. We had our tough moments but I learned a lot from you.

[Dr. Friedrich Franz @fcfinvest]

The entire market is in an unprecedented gamma squeeze. Open Interest at all time high, outstanding delta above $4.2tn - absolute all time high.

[Dr. Friedrich Franz @fcfinvest]

December WTI Crude Future is beginning to outperform the front-month:

Market is getting serious

[Vic Niederhoffer @VicNiederhoffer]

foorce of destinye round numbers broken in gool and silver sp at 6000 shortly

[Vic Niederhoffer @VicNiederhoffer]

rise and fall of charles schwab

[Vic Niederhoffer @VicNiederhoffer]

Markets from Networks: Socioeconomic Models of Production Kindle Edition one of the most realistic and profound understatndings of the the entire indutctrialstructure. highly recommended

[Vic Niederhoffer @VicNiederhoffer]

today every major us market is up substantially showing the apoval of the Maduro capture and its imapct on wealth