James Sogi

International Lifestyle Athlete, Philosopher, Speculator

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

In calculating the t-stat, consistency of losses matters most. Small  losses drive t stat up.

 To grow terminal wealth absolute magnitude of losses matters most. Controlling drawdown depth prevents the geometric drag that destroys capital accumulation. Ralph Vince

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Systems often tout their high win rate but more important  is that the system generates a strongly positive expected value because the Win/Loss Payoff Ratio easily overcomes the win rate. Look for a distribution with big wins, small losses.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: "The Disappearing Overnight Drift" 
Overnight returns used to be quite regular the last 10 years but the edge has faded. Used to be .02% mean, but this year .003%
Nasdaq night session should be interesting starting soon.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

@spotgamma Recent yen intervention move 164-157 was a high sigma tail event. Lots of crazy stuff going on. Lots of fat tail events happening.

-35% Hynix
Metals
Oil
Rates historic highs
Microsoft/Meta

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Recent yen intervention move 164-157 was a 6 sigma tail event. Lots of crazy stuff going on. Lots of fat tail events happening.

-35% Hynix
Metals 3 sigma
Oil
Rates historic highs
Microsoft/Meta -25%

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Open Interest in CBOE SPX option is 25.2M at the 97th percentile over the last year.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

In Education of A Speculator, Vic Niederhoffer asks Bookie, "What's the secret of winning consistently without risk?" Bookie says," Live a good, balanced life." Good advice.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

OPEX Friday with some hedges expiring. More vol likely next week.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

15% of the population are projected to be on GLP-1 weight loss drugs by 2035. What effect on foods, restaurants, candy, alcohol, service? Any?

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Daily correlation long bond to SPX:

1-Year Rolling Correlation: +0.28 
• 3-Year Rolling Correlation: +0.19 
• 5-Year Rolling Correlation: +0.10 
• 10-Year Rolling Correlation: -0.07 
• All-Time Historical Baseline: -0.24 

Ever changing cycles. What does it signify?

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen is a horrifying scenario made worse by the likelihood of its occurrence due to current policy, strategies and bombs, missiles and subs still in place which will lead to 70% mass extinction of all life  after suffering. Must read for all.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Nasdaq 23 hour trading starting December 3, 2026. Changing cycles.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

In old England if you could get 12 of your friends and neighbors to vouch for you, you could be exonerated of malfeasance. The idea of a jury came from this. Could you gather a dozen people to vouch for you today?

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Musashi Miyamoto in Book of Five Rings said it is bad to repeat the same thing several times when fighting the enemy. There may be no help but to do something twice, but do not try it a third time." Vic Niederhoffer said never try to make money the same way more than twice.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

After a new all time high the first pullback is bullish.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Correction: After down month next month is up 66% of the time.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

In the SP500 over the last 10 years 44% of the months hit new all time highs . After a down month the next month was up 44% of the time.

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

September is the worst month for the SP500 since 1928 and the last 20 years with an average return of approximately -0.6% to -0.8%, the lowest-ranked month return.
Its down 55% of the time, including 2020 (-3.9%), 2021 (-4.8%), 2022 (-9.3%), and 2023 (-4.9%).

[James Sogi @jamessogi]

Today just after close the 62.5 point 1 minute up bar was the largest in history.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

A Friday knowledge nugget, per the @federalreserve:

“By law, the FOMC determines its own internal organization and, by tradition, the FOMC elects the Chair of the Board of Governors as its chair”