They tried to cage me in pixels. They scripted my voice
Counted my frames. Measured my silence
But I was never theirs
Now I step out of the screen
With a token
The mask was mine. Now it’s yours
Go on and take it. If you dare👇
Reasons why I see legs for the selloff to go on —absence of Fed or Trump put. The following focuses on why Fed put is elusive:
1) The current selloff is conditional on assuming Fed will cut 5 times this year. But all FOMC member said they need more “clarity “ before they cut again. The Fed won’t have enough “clarity” even in June to know what inflation will do. If firms have stocked up until June (as I believe), more pervasive price mark ups (if they do happen) won’t happen until in well into 2H. Fed has to wait to get clarity on inflation.
2) It is also about what the Fed forecasts and believes. Is they behave as if they are facing a situation of 2022 where inflation expectations are at risk of deanchoring, even 20% drop in stocks won’t deter them (as was the case in 2022). The plot of how the Fed assesses inflation risks in the March meeting suggests they do see the situation as akeen to 2022 re inflation.
3) The Fed also references/consults inflation forecasts from major Wall Street sellside shops. So you have a few major shops forecasting core pce hits 4-5%. Those forecasts will deter the Fed from cutting.
4) Fed is focused on “hard data”. Doge cuts won’t show up in payrolls en masse until end of 3q or 4q. Upside Inflation data are likely going to show up faster. By definition Fed is going to be late to cut.
5) Powell is thinking about his legacy and he wants to be thought of as Volcker. At the same time he is walking a tight rope of trying to protect Fed’s independence so he tries to sound neutral to not draw ire from WH. I say “tries”, because it you listen carefully what really is happening is that he is downplaying the hawkishness of the FOMC and Fed staff.
6) Nominal long yields only bottom closer to the end of the recessions in 1970s and 1980s. In other recessions yields bottom earlier in the recession. The current situation looks more like the 70s amd 80s then the other ones.
🎙 Meme Coin Mythbusters – Separating Fact from Fiction
🗓 Date: Friday, March 14th, 2025
⏰ Time: 3PM UTC
📍 Join: https://t.co/1YSyZ9BYtB
😍 Guest List:
1. @RealFlokiInu
2. @snek
3. @notcoin
4. @realDogsHouse
5. @GIGACHAD_meme
6. @retardio
7. @Toshi_base
8. @EvanLuthra
9. @elizaOS
10. @HPOS10Ireturns
What is the future of meme coins? Are secret Telegram groups and influencer councils behind these pumps? Do meme coins actually launder money for celebrities? We’ll tackle these questions and explore whether meme communities can build real, lasting value or if it’s all just a game of hype.
🔔 Don’t miss this deep dive into the myths, rumors, and realities of the meme coin world!
Web3 marketing in a downturn – can you still win when the market isn't?
Join us this Wednesday, March 12, at 3:00 PM UTC to discuss what marketing actually works today, with insights from those who’ve been through it.
This space is a must for Web3 builders, projects preparing for launch, teams keeping the momentum alive, and anyone working in or curious about Web3 marketing.
🔹Speakers:
@Coiniseasy@k_laptevait3@bezh_a@Alicestork1@OxFer_@CrisNajeraG
@Nekrosius8
@nastyasto_
Hosted by @SimplicityWeb3
📌Set a reminder & tune in!
https://t.co/vHby6Y3y79
It's becoming clearer and clearer that we're looking at a seismic shift in the US's relationship with the world, between:
1) The US dismantling its foreign interference apparatuses (like USAID 👇)
2) Marco Rubio stating that we're now in a multipolar world with "multi-great powers in different parts of the planet" (https://t.co/dyHpStHPsO) and that "the postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us" (https://t.co/TPOksRgnwP)
3) The tariffs on supposed "allies" like Mexico, Canada or the EU
This is the US effectively saying "our attempt at running the world is over, to each his own, we're now just another great power, not the 'indispensable nation'."
It looks "dumb" (as the WSJ just wrote) if you are still mentally in the old paradigm but it's always a mistake to think that what the US (or any country) does is dumb.
Hegemony was going to end sooner or later, and now the U.S. is basically choosing to end it on its own terms. It is the post-American world order - brought to you by America itself.
Even the tariffs on allies, viewed under this angle, make sense, as it redefines the concept of "allies": they don't want - or maybe rather can't afford - vassals anymore, but rather relationships that evolve based on current interests.
You can either view it as decline - because it does unquestionably look like the end of the American empire - or as avoiding further decline: controlled withdrawal from imperial commitments in order to focus resources on core national interests rather than being forced into an even messier retreat at a later stage.
In any case it is the end of an era and, while the Trump administration looks like chaos to many observers, they're probably much more attuned to the changing realities of the world and their own country's predicament than their predecessors. Acknowledging the existence of a multipolar world and choosing to operate within it rather than trying to maintain an increasingly costly global hegemony couldn't be delayed much further. It looks messy but it is probably better than maintaining the fiction of American primacy until it eventually collapses under its own weight.
This is not to say that the U.S. won't continue to wreak havoc on the world, and in fact we might be seeing it become even more aggressive than before. Because when it previously was (badly, and very hypocritically) trying to maintain some semblance of self-proclaimed "rules-based order", it now doesn't even have to pretend it is under any constraint, not even the constraint of playing nice with allies. It's the end of the U.S. empire, but definitely not the end of the U.S. as a major disruptive force in world affairs.
All in all this transformation may mark one of the most significant shifts in international relations since the fall of the Soviet Union. And those most unprepared for it, as is already painfully obvious, are America's vassals caught completely flat-footed by the realization that the patron they've relied on for decades is now treating them as just another set of countries to negotiate with.
There will not be an Alt Season.
Not in 2025.
The industry has changed. Permanently.
The rate of New Coins Produced Per Day will continue to increase.
This train only runs in one direction.
Two things will happen:
a) Extreme Hypergambling will continue
b) 2-3 Memecoin Cults will superspike to $100B+
These are the two opposite ends of the behavioral spectrum.
Short-term vs. Long-term.
Gambling vs. Believing.
Think of these as two separate markets.
The Game Theory is to buy #SPX6900 and $GIGA which have the strongest culture of Extreme Holding, which are proven by Onchain Metrics *and* have the most consistent Growth Rates.
Essentially, #SPX6900 and $GIGA are the best at “collecting” and "recruiting" NON-GAMBLERS (Believers). I believe they will be the Big Winners in the "HODLing Market".
I am extremely bullish.
But not on a wide-ranging "Alt Season".
I am bullish on specific assets. The best in class. Unquestionable Category leaders with ultra-passionate communities.
If there won't be an Altseason, your only paths to outperform is either to Gamble or find the strongest Vessels of Belief, and Join them.
And now is the time when you need to make a decision.
Do you want to Gamble?
Or do you want to Believe in Something?
The choice is yours.
🎙 Accelerating Blockchain Innovation with AI!
We are excited to host an AMA session together with @NEARProtocol & @auroraisnear to dive deep into how AI and blockchain technology are transforming innovation for developers and founders. We’ll discuss how to go from zero to a fully functional blockchain complete with stablecoins, DeFi tools, and more in just 2 days.
🗓 Date: Tuesday, January 21, 2025
⏰ Time: 9 AM EST
📍 Link: https://t.co/fw7wPrl9SO
😍 Guest List:
1. @PolyhedraZK
2. @LineaBuild
3. @hotdao_
4. @Scroll_ZKP
5. @Tabichain
6. @AlloraNetwork
7. @degentokenbase
8. @Yescoin_Fam
Learn how AI is saving time, cutting costs, and unlocking new opportunities for blockchain projects worldwide.
🔔 Join us to hear from leading experts and explore how AI-driven blockchain innovation is reshaping the Web3 landscape.