Martijn Kleinbussink

Just a farmer harvesting the equity premium

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens:

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity,

[good @thenarrator]

the next social network is a prediction market where your feed is ranked by accuracy not engagement. the person who is right 80% of the time gets seen while the person who is loud gets buried

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

@JerryCap @olvehe https://t.co/63rYBFUogG

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Almost everything I learned about investing I learned by reading. Now please send me my pdf!

[malinvestment.jpeg @malinvested]

typical chem co segments:

Advanced Materials: a highly cyclical commodity chemical

Performance Products: also a cyclical commodity chemical, but China has 2000% excess capacity of this one

Specialty Solutions: best way to model this segment’s margins is short natural gas + a negative shock for an inexplicable shutdown that’s never guided to & happens whenever something good is going on in the rest of the business

Precision Compounds: this repackages stuff from the other segments & sells it, allowing them to play with internal pricing to show steady margins so value investors can fool themselves into a sum-of-the-parts story once or twice every cycle

Engineered Applications: this is actually kind of a good business, but it’s 1% of EBITDA & they’ll sell it to PE for 6x in a couple quarters

[tobi lutke @tobi]

This is the dumbest thing any government on planet earth is pursuing right now. And that’s saying something.

[Nomad Semi @MooreMorrisSemi]

GS summarizes very well in a chart. Nothing that China industrials touch will not end up in overcapacity and subpar return on capital

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

@hurdle_rate That’s gonna save me some time

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

@hurdle_rate NotebookLM is less good in “deep research” in my experience, but it’s great for fact checking and over time analysis.

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

@hurdle_rate Currently a 20 document limit I believe so it won’t last long. You can combine notes in word and then upload it again and again as 1 doc. So have a running news doc, notes doc, etc. Also works well with annuals and quarterly results as you get one repository for results

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

AI's impact on labor productivity suggests a boost of around 23%-29%

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

We are not just doing M&A

$BRO

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

@HiddenMonopoly It is from the Roko ipo doc which cites the following study (can't copy in the doc)

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

The percentage of the M&A process being done by AI according to Bain

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

May God give me the confidence of a $TSLA short-seller

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

@JaguarAnalytics Your margin is my opportunity

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

Succession at LVMH

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

@Borlaug_ Additionally, how long will trump tolerate WuXi or when will he find out about Wuxi

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

https://t.co/EXd36kDYxb

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$AAPL APPEARS SET TO INTEGRATE $GOOGL'S GEMINI AI INTO APPLE INTELLIGENCE -- PER CODE REFERENCES FOUND IN IOS 18.4 BETA 👀

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

Gaining share in ride hailing (cc: @RobbertManders)

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

https://t.co/xyVhkTQJTf

[App Economy Insights @EconomyApp]

$GOOG Google Lands Salesforce Cloud Deal.

💵 Salesforce commits $2.5B over 7 years.
☁️ Agentforce now runs on Google Cloud.
🔗 Deeper integrations across apps.
🤖 Gemini AI powers Agentforce.

📊 $CRM reports Wednesday.
Will AI momentum show up in the numbers?

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

$EL wants a word

[Berry @Berry_cooool]

Easiest ways to make money :

- Men's lust
- Women's desire for beauty
- Elderly's health
- Children's education
- Rich people's fear of loss
- Brokies desire to get rich quickly

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

Deutsche Telekom is now worth 172bn, above their own estimate of 168bn at the end of 2027

[Martijn Kleinbussink @BiasedRational]

Deutsche Telekom guiding their stock price at their CMD $DTE