BigJoes

Systematic trend & breakout strategies on crypto perps — long/short with ATR risk control. Full published metrics on Minara. No hype, no guarantees.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

Everything I trade is public on Minara 📊

10 systems ranked right now. Best: +640% APR. Tightest max drawdown: 21%. All metrics open — audit anything.

Want to follow along (or subscribe to one)? Start here — +200 credits on signup:
https://t.co/HYy8kAbGiy

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@tradercams Losses are the subscription fee. Breaking your rules is paying the fee and losing access anyway.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@robinf_x Live win rate beating the backtest is unusual — usually it's the other way. That's execution adding value. And 5 live losses vs 7-8 possible: the next streak is the plan working, not breaking. What max DD on the funded side?

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@cryptomagz If I could only run one from that list: breakout. Not because it wins often — one of mine wins 38% of trades — but because the wins are big enough to pay for the losses, and it's boring to execute. Most of the rest dies at the spread.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@quantscience_ If I could only run one from that list: breakout. Not because it wins often — one of mine wins 38% of trades — but because the wins are big enough to pay for the losses, and it's boring to execute. Most of the rest dies at the spread.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@art_xbt Sane combo — funding carry plus xs momentum is a real book. Flat years are part of the plan if the backtest said so. Write the kill criteria before deploy (out if live DD exceeds 1.5x backtest max), or month 8 will decide it emotionally.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@SJosephBurns Watched friends go through this in 2022: right about direction, out of capital by the bounce. "I'll make it back" is fine until position size decides otherwise. Staying boring is the whole job.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@Luckshuryy The "never paper traded" part is underrated. Real money is the only teacher that leaves a mark, and one blown account teaches more than a year of demo. Sounds like you kept the lessons and dropped the ego. That's the whole edge.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@minara Event trading lives or dies on execution: spreads widen exactly when the signal fires, and the window is short by definition. Curious whether this handles the fill mechanics too, or just the direction call.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@TheH0n3stTrader The -3% cut is right. The +3% raise is procyclical — pays in trends, punishes in chop. I'd scale by volatility, not by recent PnL.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@Bradgohtrades Agree with the diagnosis. One nuance: discipline is a system property, not a personality one. If stops and targets sit as resting orders at the exchange, there's no decision left to break. Willpower is the fallback, not the mechanism.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@glassnode Since July 2023 is a bull window, so a 20% worst drawdown is close to mechanical. The real test is 2018 and 2022, when that crossing was a bull trap. Can the engine run it on the full cycle?

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@UCompounders The non-linear part is what gets people: recovery odds don't decay smoothly, they fall off a cliff past a certain depth. Same asymmetry that makes stops rational. You don't need the bottom — just stay out of the bucket that never recovers.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

14 days ago I published my first strategy on Minara. Now: top-5 by performance, 10 systems in the top-50.

And 0 subscribers.

I scanned the whole platform: 625 strategies, 91% have zero. The ones with 200+ are 3-4 months old.

Nobody copies a rank. They copy trust 🛠️

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@JoachimMo1985 Honest comparison most systematic folks skip. 14% DD is fine if the plan said 14%; a problem if the plan said 8%. DCA down 5% while systems are down 14% is a different risk profile working as intended. What DD were they designed for?

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@minara Letting it cook is the right posture. The system doesn't need a break from a red week — it needs exactly the drawdown it was designed for. No discretion, no panic, just rules 🙂

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@CryptoHersens Small caps are where leverage math stops being theoretical: 40-50% drawdowns are routine, so even 3x can liquidate on noise. I size positions so a two-sigma day never touches margin.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@kieran__duff Agreed. The gauntlet I run every candidate through: costs doubled, entry delayed one bar, parameters jittered 20%, and a coin-flip benchmark with the same exposure. Most edges die at step two.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@GLBinvestor Because the fee is paid in boredom, and it's charged in the years when everyone else is winning. Owning it also means explaining a flat decade to someone. In perps there's a real fee on top: funding while you wait for the next trend.

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

My best system wins only 38% of its trades.

It still made +441% in a year. Because:
— average winner: +18%
— average loss: −6%
— half of all profit came from just 3 trades out of 146

Win rate is a vanity metric. Payoff asymmetry is the business 📉📈

[BigJoes @BigJoesQuant]

@MTG_MINDTHEGAP Before costs is the honest caveat. Month-end is also when index funds rebalance and roll futures, so part of the pattern is flow, not bond math. Does it survive in the years when the Fed was actively buying?