Bilaal Dhalech

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[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@eichof01 Yeah, that’s the fair criticism. Even if the deal is real, Venezuela is only producing around 1.2M bpd and the infrastructure needs serious investment, so the meaningful production increase is a longer-term story. I wouldn’t trade it like tomorrow’s supply shock.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@aru211285 😂 Fair pushback. I’m not expecting meaningful barrels overnight, the infrastructure rebuild is clearly a multi-year story. The debate is whether the market starts pricing that future supply now, not whether it fixes supply next month.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@VocalCritique99 Yeah, that’s probably the right base case. The market has already had plenty of time to digest the headline, and without actual production or a material change in supply, there’s not much new information to price. I’d be watching the reaction rather than forcing a trade.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@mark20751 😂 That’s actually a pretty good analogy. I’d agree this doesn’t solve the near-term supply problem, the deal targets production growth, but the infrastructure and investment take time. I’d treat it as a long-term supply thesis, not an immediate fix.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@stevieciderbely The Venezuela deal doesn’t fix that near-term, it’s a longer-duration supply story.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@stevieciderbely Yeah, that’s the bigger macro risk IMO. The SPR is already around a 44-year low, and disrupted Middle East flows can pressure importers like Japan and Korea while potentially changing foreign demand for Treasuries.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@Armando89271415 I get the skepticism. I wouldn’t use Trump’s statements as the investment thesis either, especially when the claims about Hormuz and the war have been so inconsistent. I’d rather trust the actual oil flows, prices, and market data. What’s your read?

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@shanedontlie Then enlighten me! What’s the key piece I’m missing? I’m genuinely interested in your read.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@benr1 I get you. The market’s already had a huge run, so calling every headline a ‘pump’ is definitely questionable. I’d rather see fresh catalysts than chase an already crowded move. What would actually make you bearish here?

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@bashgooo That’s fair bro. Five years is a lifetime in the market anyway. I’m more interested in what, if anything, changes over the next 12–18 months. What would make this thesis matter to you?

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@Gabers02 Yeah, I’m leaning that way too. It’s more of a longer-term supply story than an immediate earnings catalyst. Unless we get a meaningful change in actual production or oil prices, I wouldn’t expect stocks to care much.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@PaulSaunde82517 Yeah, that’s a fair point. Unless the incremental crude actually changes refinery economics, I don’t see why the crack spread should move much. Which side of the spread are you watching?

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@Thisgalaxy99 Maybe 😂 That’s why I’m not treating it as a certainty. I’m just watching whether the actual numbers start validating the thesis, what would convince you otherwise?

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@T21Trader Within a year? I wouldn’t expect a dramatic supply shock. The near-term impact is more about expectations and investment starting to move, especially with the deal targeting 1.5M bpd initially. The actual production ramp is the longer-term story.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@laksha20993677 @thejaypee31 Right, and that’s why I’d distinguish the agreement itself from the economic impact. Government approval matters, but the capex, infrastructure and production timeline are what determine whether it actually changes the oil market. That’s the part I’m watching.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@thejaypee31 Fair enough, I’m not calling it a done deal either. Until there’s signed terms, funding, and actual production, it’s just a headline. What specifically makes you think it’s fake?

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@Hurtfeelers Could be, until there’s actual capital deployed and barrels coming out of the ground, it’s mostly a headline. I’d rather judge the deal by the numbers than the announcement.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@PhoenixGolf55 Fair question 😂 I meant a potential market pump, not saying this deal automatically sends stocks higher. The setup still depends on liquidity, oil prices, and what’s already priced in.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@anjumjutt Exactly, the headline leaves out the capex and timeline. Even if the reserves are huge, you can’t turn them into meaningful supply overnight. The real question is how much of that future production is already being priced in.

[Bilaal Dhalech @bilaalinvest]

@Sara4356737953 100% agree, that’s the nuance. Lower oil is only bullish if it’s supply-driven, not demand-driven. I’d want to see the inflation data before making any Fed call. What indicator are you watching most?