Despues de chequear las 1552 actas que faltaban contar con OCR:
A este momento, el conteo oficial ONPE
FP: 9043934
JP:9039415
Sumando los numeros presentes en las actas observadas:
FP:179649
JP:134225
Margen final aproximado:
(9043934+179649)-(9039415+134225)=49943
Keiko Fujimori habrá ganado la presidencia con 50.29% con Probabilidad del 93% (proyecc con actas contadas al 94.1%)
40K iteraciones Montecarlo
Estimación de votos pendientes: a nivel de acta
Base % distrital actual con corrección de votos 1era vuelta + trasvase votos aliados en rangos optimista/pesimista
#peru #elecciones
@omar_gavidia@grok desde el análisis sociológico, y de las ciencias del comportamiento, por qué unas ciudades golpeadas por el terrorismo en el Perú apoyarían a un candidato que originaria en desenlace similar, o los supuestos son cuestionables?
¿Quién va ganando la 2da vuelta? La verdad: es un EMPATE. Te lo explico fácil 👇
📊 Con el 95% de las actas contadas, Fujimori (FP) aparece arriba con 50.2%. Pero ese número engaña, y acá está el porqué:
⏱️ Las ciudades de la costa cuentan MÁS RÁPIDO, y ahí gana Fujimori. El campo y la sierra cuentan más lento, y ahí arrasa Sánchez (JPP). Entonces el conteo "va adelantado" a favor de FP solo porque falta lo de Sánchez.
🗳️ ¿Qué falta contar? Justo las zonas donde JPP es fortísimo: Puno (87% JPP), Apurímac, Cusco, Ayacucho, Huancavelica, Cajamarca. Cuando entren esos votos, Sánchez pasa al frente por unos 78 mil. 📈
🌎 PERO falta un detalle: el voto de los peruanos en el EXTERIOR (aún sin contar), que vota mayoritariamente a Fujimori (estoy proyectando ~64%). Ese voto le devuelve a FP unos 84 mil… y vuelve a empatar todo. 🤝
🧮 La cuenta final queda así:
✅ Contado hoy: FP +61 mil
🏔️ Falta el campo (pro-Sánchez): −139 mil
✈️ Falta el exterior (pro-Fujimori): +84 mil
🟰 RESULTADO: FP +6,200 votos. Es decir, CERO. Un virtual empate.
⚖️ 6 mil votos en más de 18 millones es nada: ni 0.05%. Hoy NADIE puede cantar victoria.
🔑 En una frase: puertas adentro gana Sánchez; con el voto del exterior, es moneda al aire. Esto se define por los últimos votos del campo y de afuera. 🍿
Buenas noticias: perdió Keiko
Malas noticias: ganó Sánchez
Pésimas noticias: no estamos seguros de las dos anteriores...
#EleccionesPerú2026#Perú#LaEncerrona
Ahora por debajo del 3% 📉
Se sigue reduciendo la diferencia....
ONPE 08/06/2026 01:26 am
🗳️82.764% de actas contabilizadas la diferencia entre KF y RS es del 2.938%
#EleccionesPerú2026
PRO TIP: Gamify your notebooks
Don't just read your notes— investigate them. Our new Sherlock Holmes notebook turns studying into an interactive mystery game. Deduce facts, uncover clues, & prove that even the most complex matters can be elementary.
➡️ https://t.co/Z5gAzflax9
A top feature request is rolling out in @NotebookLM: Google Drive files will now automatically sync! 🔄
We're actively rolling this out, starting with 10% today and ramping up soon.
We’re thrilled to announce the Antigravity CLI, a lightweight way to spin up the same Antigravity agents right from the terminal. 💻
It gives you the exact same harness and same models, with a product experience tailored for the command line. It adapts entirely to you: your keybindings, your themes, your workflows.
Full Antigravity CLI Walkthrough:
We are entering a new era of on-device automation. ✨
Watch Gemma 4 E4B navigate and drive an iOS simulator directly using Argent. Local models can handle complex interactions and software navigation autonomously.
Muy buena demostración de DeepMind del largo camino que aún nos queda por hacer (y deshacer) para reimaginar las interfaces que usamos con IA!
En este caso un prototipo de cursor inteligente que pueda entender, según dónde apunta el usuario, su intención.
https://t.co/tofGKCJsJj
@omar_gavidia Como que la noticia debería ser: "Usuario hizo un PROMPT para eliminar la base de datos sin querer." Y le dio siguiente, siguiente hasta que no hubo base de datos
Here's my update to the broader community about the ongoing incident investigation. I want to give you the rundown of the situation directly.
A Vercel employee got compromised via the breach of an AI platform customer called https://t.co/7PY6gGtzgI that he was using. The details are being fully investigated.
Through a series of maneuvers that escalated from our colleague’s compromised Vercel Google Workspace account, the attacker got further access to Vercel environments.
Vercel stores all customer environment variables fully encrypted at rest. We have numerous defense-in-depth mechanisms to protect core systems and customer data. We do have a capability however to designate environment variables as “non-sensitive”. Unfortunately, the attacker got further access through their enumeration.
We believe the attacking group to be highly sophisticated and, I strongly suspect, significantly accelerated by AI. They moved with surprising velocity and in-depth understanding of Vercel.
At the moment, we believe the number of customers with security impact to be quite limited. We’ve reached out with utmost priority to the ones we have concerns about. All of our focus right now is on investigation, communication to customers, enhancement of security measures, and sanitization of our environments. We’ve deployed extensive protection measures and monitoring. We’ve analyzed our supply chain, ensuring Next.js, Turbopack, and our many open source projects remain safe for our community.
The recommendation for all Vercel customers is to follow the Security Bulletin closely (https://t.co/BLVnic9fJC). My advice to everyone is to follow the best practices of security response: secret rotation, monitoring access to your Vercel environments and linked services, and ensuring the proper use of the sensitive env variables feature.
In response to this, and to aid in the improvement of all of our customers’ security postures, we’ve already rolled out new capabilities in the dashboard, including an overview page of environment variables, and a better user interface for sensitive env var creation and management. As always, I’m totally open to your feedback.
We’re working with elite cybersecurity firms, industry peers, and law enforcement. We’ve reached out to Context to assist in understanding the full scale of the incident, in an effort to protect other organizations and the broader internet. I also want to thank the Google Mandiant team for their active engagement and assistance.
It’s my mission to turn this attack into the most formidable security response imaginable. It’s always been a top priority for me. Vercel employs some of the most dedicated security researchers and security-minded engineers in the world. I commit to keeping you updated and rolling out extensive improvements and defenses so you, our customers and community, can have the peace of mind that Vercel always has your back.