Rida Mawla

Finance Consultant, Politics Enthusiast, Musician.
And mostly on a mission to not freak out when I have nothing to do

[Badil | The Alternative Policy Institute @Badilmedia]

يناقش مدير الأبحاث في معهد السياسة البديلة، نزار غانم، التحوّلات الجارية في ملف التفاوض اللبناني وانعكاسها على السيادة والدبلوماسية، في ظل أسئلة أساسية: من يدير فعليًا هذا المسار؟ وكيف يمكن للبنان أن يوازن بين التفاوض، وحصرية القرار، ومنع انزلاق الجنوب إلى وقائع جديدة على الأرض

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

One dimension to the situation today that does not get enough attention is how regional powers that oppose the prospect of Israeli regional hegemony, will react if Lebanon moves toward a peace agreement with Israel. Such a direction would effectively mean that Lebanon is drawn into Israel's sphere of influence, and both Turkey and Saudi Arabia may not welcome this, at least today.

For Turkey, Lebanon is an extension of Syria, where the Turks and Israelis are rivals—a rivalry that will only escalate in the coming years. Will Turkey allow Lebanon to fall into an Israeli sphere if this can be used to undermine the Turkish sphere of interest in Syria? I doubt it.

As for the Saudis, the problem is less structural, however their position has been to dissuade Syria from negotiating peace with Israel, probably because this would undermine Saudi conditions for doing so—namely the need to assure a path toward Palestinian statehood. So, if that's their approach to Syria, can we imagine their approach to Lebanon negotiating peace would necessarily be a welcoming one?

Up to now, it's noticeable we haven't seen much public Arab or Turkish support for the possibility of Lebanese-Israeli peace. That's no coincidence.

[Firas Hatoum @ferashatoum]

نواف سلام:مسؤول عن مجازر بيروت؟

[Mounir Rabih @mounir_rabih]

دول الخليج بدأت بالبحث عن بدائل من مضيق هرمز، واتجهت على تركيز الاعتماد على #البحر_الأحمر القابل بدوره أيضاً إلى انعدام الأمان في حال تجددت الحرب على إيران، وهو ما سيدفع إلى البحث عن طرق جديدة، من بينها فتح خطوط من الخليج إلى سوريا عبر الأردن ومن هناك إلى تركيا ومن السواحل السورية نحو أوروبا. هنا لا يمكن إغفال المشروع الذي أعلنت عنه #سوريا و #تركيا مع #الأردن، إضافة إلى مشروع "البحار الأربعة" الذي يضع سوريا وتركيا في موضع نقطة الالتقاء الإستراتيجي بين الخليج العربي، #البحر_المتوسط، بحر قزوين والبحر الأسود، علماً أن هذا المشروع سيتعرض لحرب إسرائيلية شرسة لمنع تحقيقه.

#لبنان، لن يكون بعيداً عن تداعيات الصراع على خطوط الإمداد والسلاسل، فموقعه على البحر الأبيض المتوسط، وفي موقع يتوسط تركيا وإسرائيل، سيكون عرضة لتنافس وتناتش، ولذلك استعجل الإسرائيليون منذ فترة طويلة الإعلان عن نيتهم الوصول إلى اتفاقات اقتصادية مع لبنان، كل هذه الاتفاقيات ترتكز على مشروع تصدير الغاز من المتوسط، وأن تكون الحدود البحرية والحقول اللبنانية مرتبطة بالحقول الإسرائيلية وخط الإمداد والتوريد. إسرائيل تريد للبنان أن يكون في فلكها أو كنفها، لا أن يكون شريكاً لأي مشروع خليجي-سوري-تركي مشترك.

التفاصيل كاملة في المقال 👇

[Mounir Rabih @mounir_rabih]

أقصى ما يحتاج اليه لبنان اليوم هو الالتفاف حول الحكومة والدولة.. في مواجهة العدوان لا يحتمل الأمر اي صراعات سياسية داخلية او بينية، فما تحتاجه البلاد هو الوحدة ثم الوحدة، والتظاهرات التي تحصل تأتي في غير موضعها ووجهتها.. فالوجهة المطالبة بوقف الحرب وتحرير الجنوب ومنع الاعتداء.. ما يجري من هجوم على الحكومة ورئيس الحكومة نواف سلام هو تحوير للأنظار عن المشكلة الاساسية وبحث عن صراع لا يمكن العودة اليه.. كما ان الاتهامات العشوائية والاستفزازية لا تؤدي إلا الى مزيد من التأزم.. وتستدعي الشارع مقابل الشارع.. وتأخذ البلاد الى فتنة لا احد يريدها
للتضامن مع الحكومة.. ومع الرئيس نواف سلام بدلاً من مهاجمته او محاولة تطويقه.

[Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la]

I talked to a few sources in Israel and the frustration with the ceasefire is deep. The are incredibly unhappy there, whether in the army or the government:

1) An Israeli official described the announcement as a "complete surprise," claiming the White House provided a last-minute notification rather than engaging in a joint strategic rollout.

2) Just 24 hours prior, senior Israeli officials were publicly telling reporters they did not expect any ceasefire in the near future. They were blindsided.

3) I was told that there was an operation to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei, which Netanyahu was heavily invested in, which he had tried to convince Trump to wait for.

4) Security officials have leaked concerns that the 14-day pause provides a critical "breather" for Iran to hide or further bury its uranium stockpiles that were recently exposed by Israeli strikes.

5) Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are already threatening that they will collapse the government if the two-week pause transitions into a permanent arrangement without the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

6) While Tel Aviv saw jubilant celebrations from hostage families, residents in the Upper Galilee view the pause as a security failure that leaves them under the threat of Hezbollah. In the north they are deeply concerned that they will never be safe again.

7) Some in the Mossad still believe that Israel was on the verge of toppling the Islamic Republic. Those reports were shown to the Trump administration which ignored them.

8) Israeli intelligence is certain that while strikes damaged the Natanz and Minzadehei facilities, the core material was not neutralized.

All this to say, there is a sense of coitus interruptus in Israeli security circles. They had more targets they wanted to pursue and are now concerned that Trump will force them to stop in Lebanon. Having said that, the plan is now to escalate in Lebanon and Gaza in order to have some achievements. It is difficult for the security establishment to deal with the fact that Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRGC are Mall still in charge after all this time and all this effort. any are blaming Netanyahu for this outcome.

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@CraigMurrayOrg What is your source on logistics support? The Israelis went through Syrian territory they already occupy

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@abbaszahry @MariamSeif يعني انت شو استفدت و شو فدت البشرية بهيك تعليق؟ مش حرام عليك؟ كل هالكراهية هاي لشو؟

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@HalaJaber False news. Check what @Jad_Ghosn reported on no @AlarabyTV on this

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@fouadkhreiss هل تاكدت من الفيديو؟ عم بقرأ بمحلات كثيرة انه قديم

[Ahmad @wehbix]

We’re launching @sovra_finance

A self-custody savings account for emerging markets:

💵 Save in USD stablecoins
📈 Earn ~5% APY
🔒 Your money. Your control.

V0 (invite-only closed beta) drops in a few weeks.
👉 Join the waitlist: https://t.co/yWyTEuIeFA

Early adopters get special perks.

[Ronnie Chatah @thebeirutbanyan]

“For me, love is…I used to think of that as cliché but it is true. It does heal.”

From Ep.419: Ongoing Recovery with Rida Mawla

Check out our full discussion on The Beirut Banyan podcast

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

Recovery conversations 😊

[Ronnie Chatah @thebeirutbanyan]

“I’m of the opinion that the emotional is everything.”

With Rida Mawla in a conversation about looking at life differently and ongoing recovery.

From Ep.419 on The Beirut Banyan

[Ravi Mangla @ravi_mangla]

This is one of the most stunningly sincere and human things I've seen from a politician.

(h/t to @Annie_McDonough)

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@nntaleb Fortune teller
Senior caregiver

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@WarMonitors Right???? 🤣

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@elonmusk FYI Military aid to Israel and Ukraine in 2024 is multiple times the entire budget of USAID

[Rida Mawla @Bilo_M]

@farahkanaan 🤣 white privilege?

[samar @samar_ablhsn]

My grandfather’s house in Bekaa, Lebanon was bombed by Israel 3 weeks ago. I lost 6 family members, including my mother 💔 My life has changed forever. Lebanon will never be the same to me and I don’t even know if I’d want to go back to that. #CeasfireNow

[Joyce Karam @Joyce_Karam]

What many don't realize about Lebanon
• It's not majority-ruled system
• Hezbollah far more than 'militia'
• Hezbollah has vast infrastructure
• Entirely different from Gaza
• No military solution
• This is not 1982