Michael Young

Senior editor, Carnegie Middle East Center. Author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon's Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster 2010).

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

In 1984, I shot a militiaman. Story at the Lebanese Without Frontiers substack, to which I highly recommend you subscribe. It's full of fascinating material aimed at creating a collective Lebanese memory through personal recollection (and it's free): https://t.co/QKonRVZXQ1

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

Some countries in the Middle East are getting over their America Derangement Syndrome, others are not doing so. But it’s evident that preparations for a post-United States region are in order, and would be a stabilizion factor. Mine for @NationalComment: https://t.co/yaymLqlHzx

[The National Comment @NationalComment]

It’s time for states in the region to settle their own problems, which is why their officials should begin slowly reorienting themselves away from exclusive dependency on the US.

Opinion | Michael Young @BeirutCalling via @TheNationalNews https://t.co/v5aSC0ChbK

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

In its latest article, the Lebanese Without Frontiers website looks at another southern village, Yaroun, and how the succession of wars in the south has created existential fears among villagers, who are seeing everything they once knew disappear.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

Some countries in the Middle East are getting over their America Derangement Syndrome, others are not doing so. But it’s evident that preparations for a post-United States region are in order, and would be a stabilizion factor. Mine for @NationalComment: https://t.co/yaymLqlHzx

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

What do Syria's and Jordan's trade statistics tell us about their bilateral relationship, and about their economic strengths and weaknesses? @TokmajyanA, takes his magnifying glass to the figures and reaches very interesting conclusions, at Diwan: https://t.co/vUyzpKCTjJ

[Charlie Hoyle @CharlieCHoyle]

Analysis: As US-Iran diplomacy hangs in the balance, Lebanon risks becoming collateral damage in a bargain shaped by outside powers

@AlexMAstley's latest from Beirut for @The_NewArab, with insights from @BeirutCalling @isalamey @paul_salem

https://t.co/rqIi3kXRe1

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

What do Syria's and Jordan's trade statistics tell us about their bilateral relationship, and about their economic strengths and weaknesses? @TokmajyanA, takes his magnifying glass to the figures and reaches very interesting conclusions, at Diwan: https://t.co/vUyzpKCTjJ

[Zeteo @zeteo_news]

"Perpetual war won’t bring perpetual peace for Israel. If anything, it will produce a more dangerous strategic reality."

Beirut-based analyst Michael Young @BeirutCalling unpacks the fundamental problem in Israel's "Iron Wall" strategy.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

@Beirutspring If this is true, he's probably having difficulty swallowing.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

Here's the Axios story suggesting that Trump told Netanyahu, "You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this." True or untrue? https://t.co/wkPDh0eRNi

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

In its latest article, the Lebanese Without Frontiers website looks at another southern village, Yaroun, and how the succession of wars in the south has created existential fears among villagers, who are seeing everything they once knew disappear.

[Lebanese Without Frontiers @mireille961]

Yaroun, through the voices of its older and younger generations. Reflections on loss, belonging, and what remains when a village no longer exists. From the Lebanese Without Frontiers Substack: https://t.co/2yLV3ROtDH #Yaroun #SouthLebanon #Lebanon

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

Here is @tparsi's take at his Substack. He believes the story is plausible, given past altercations between U.S. presidents and Netanyahu: https://t.co/CS6aGJihB9

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

"I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut... I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop." - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

[Sohaib Jawhar @Sohaibjawhar]

Regional diplomatic source:

• Intensive Saudi-Qatari coordination from Saturday night until Sunday morning helped pave the way for a ceasefire understanding, following sustained Gulf pressure on the Trump administration to halt the escalation and prevent a wider regional confrontation.

• The diplomatic effort was accompanied by contacts conducted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi with his Egyptian and Turkish counterparts, during which Tehran conveyed concerns that it could suspend ongoing understandings with Washington if the escalation continued and efforts to secure a ceasefire failed.

• As part of the political follow-up to the emerging arrangement, an envoy representing Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has arrived in Doha for consultations with senior Qatari officials. Representatives close to Walid Jumblatt and several Lebanese MPs are also expected to visit Doha in the coming days to discuss the implications of the agreement and the next phase of regional diplomacy.

• The source added that Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri is expected to travel to Oslo in the coming days to participate in an international forum, where he is scheduled to meet Syrian officials and a number of regional and international representatives for discussions on the ceasefire, Lebanon’s position, and the broader regional outlook. He is then expected to continue to Doha for a new round of consultations with Qatari officials.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

@tashecon Israel wants chaos in all neighboring countries, because it can only be secure when its neighbors are insecure.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

@Ibrahim_Zabad @haningdr Full agreement.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

I certainly didn’t use the term “obstacle.” I’m saying that those peddling the “Hezbollah can be disarmed by force” line are consciously ignoring the state of mind in the community today, shaped by a traumatic and annihilatory Israeli offensive that will deny them access to their villages for heaven knows how long. It’s perfectly fair game to condemn people in Washington who are pushing U.S. officials to put pressure on Lebanon to adopt a military option, when they know, or should know, the terrible calamity this would provoke. I’ve always supported Hezbollah’s disarmament, and still do, as a way of taking Lebanon out of the Iranian-Israeli proxy war, but Israel has no interest in a viable solution. By displacing much of the Shiite community, they are creating conditions for civil strife, on the assumption it will force the Lebanese to act. As they see it, the alternatives are both good: a war between the army and Hezbollah, which would occupy the party indefinitely; or civil strife, which would do the same. Those in Washington claiming to be experts on Lebanon are facilitating this outcome, and are moreover involved in a sophisticated lobbying effort to force Lebanon into a peace deal with Israel, which would divide the country further and provoke significant opposition from regional states, leading to Lebanon’s isolation. Please don’t tell me it’s unfair to push back against those engaged in this cynical, destructive game.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

@JenniferLoewe10 @IngaSchei More or less correct.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

It never seems to occur to her why this is the case: it would put the army in confrontation with not only Hezbollah, but also the entire Shiite community, which, thanks to Israel’s brutal uprooting of the community from large swaths of its historical heartland, Shiite isolation in Lebanon, the proximity of a hostile, revanchist Syria, and now the effective success of Hezbollah’s one regional sponsor, Iran, will never agree to disarm, and will in fact rally to Hezbollah’s side. The army cannot prevail in such circumstances, and the ensuing failure would be devastating to the state project she claims to support. That’s beside the fact that the army is likely to split along sectarian lines. This has little to do with “will”, as stated in this roundtable, and not one of the participants addressed the mood in the Shiite community. It may be more complex than usually portrayed, but faced with forcible disarmament, its ambiguities would fade away amid communal mobilization.

[Washington Institute @WashInstitute]

.@haningdr: As for the LAF, the issue of Hezbollah disarmament is “a political decision by the Lebanese government and president that they do not want to confront Hezbollah at all.” #TWIPolicyForum

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

I certainly didn’t use the term “obstacle.” I’m saying that those peddling the “Hezbollah can be disarmed by force” line are consciously ignoring the state of mind in the community today, shaped by a traumatic and annihilatory Israeli offensive that will deny them access to their villages for heaven knows how long. It’s perfectly fair game to condemn people in Washington who are pushing U.S. officials to put pressure on Lebanon to adopt a military option, when they know, or should know, the terrible calamity this would provoke. I’ve always supported Hezbollah’s disarmament, and still do, as a way of taking Lebanon out of the Iranian-Israeli proxy war, but Israel has no interest in a viable solution. By displacing much of the Shiite community, they are creating conditions for civil strife, on the assumption it will force the Lebanese to act. As they see it, the alternatives are both good: a war between the army and Hezbollah, which would occupy the party indefinitely; or civil strife, which would do the same. Those in Washington claiming to be experts on Lebanon are facilitating this outcome, and are moreover involved in a sophisticated lobbying effort to force Lebanon into a peace deal with Israel, which would divide the country further and provoke significant opposition from regional states, leading to Lebanon’s isolation. Please don’t tell me it’s unfair to push back against those engaged in this cynical, destructive game.

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

@QuetzalQuantal @Noam_NYC @IngaSchei The likelihood is actually quite low; and if Israel helps the army against Hezbollah, (a) the destruction would be immense; (b) the government wouldn’t survive; and (c) you can kiss goodbye to any thought of bringing the Shiite community back into the fold of the state.