Random citizen

Comprehensive generalist, macro strategist

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@izakaminska *no explicit government backstop. no way they don't rescue everything when this all comes crashing down.

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@TotemMacro @alexwg

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

It is January 2028. While geniuses (like Elon, AWG etc.) had been forecasting double digit GDP growth in early 2026, 2027 ended up being the worst year since the GFC despite a multitude of AI related scientific breakthroughs that drive a wave of innovation & entrepreneurship. It is now clear that the US economy is in controlled demolition mode while the world economy is just collapsing. Trump avoided impeachment with a narrow victory at the midterms despite the fallout from the Iran war. With the first "AI election" ahead, a massively stimulatory bill is/about to be passed that resolves the AI tension in a way that seems to favor labor over capital: a temporary fix while the rules of a new post-labour economics world of abundance are being negotiated. Other countries try various legislation in the same direction but don't have the fiscal room to stimulate enough to avoid imminent cascades of economic failures and riots. UK and EU leadership are further unmasked to be fully authoritarian, desperately trying to cling to the pretense of democracy while employing ever-drastic measures to contain the fallout. A systemic reset looms over the horizon. It will be agreed on US, China and Russia's terms.

[Naval @naval]

A man expresses love through duty.

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@BenBrey @SquirrelMacro Hey Ben. Don't you think the passive flows can carry the market for a while more despite the drain?

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@PeterBerezinBCA The difference this time is demographics - no way there's a 30 fold increase in gdp without massive fiscal stimulus. Reality right now is declining real incomes.

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

Revive shrinkflation.. but for AI this time

[Citrini @citrini]

It’s already happening.

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

Nah. This would mean 2y above 5% at least. No way. Mini inflationary wave for a few months followed by true deflationary collapse next year. 2Y below 2% by the next presidential election.

[Citrini @citrini]

This selloff in rates is closer to the beginning than the end imo.

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@conksresearch as if.

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@Andercot It's also interesting beauty can emerge from both entropy and anti-entropy.

[Mr. VIX @yieldsearcher]

To those saying this time is different from 1999, I wholeheartedly agree. And I am a secular AI bull too.

The cable and dot-com era produced the largest IT job gains in history.

The AI era, so far, is showing signs of being the exact opposite.

It is 100% different this time.

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@alexwg I'm sure anthropic will overtake US gov revenue...

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@EffMktHype is your heart even made of stone

[Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross @alexwg]

Moonshots episode #246 is out. https://t.co/KE7Zs5NliS

[Conks @conksresearch]

“pay Asian sovereign debt investors a decent yield”

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@EffMktHype @acrossthespread

[Random citizen @binaryprinciple]

@profplum99 Add to that the medium term deflationary effect of layoffs due to margin compression - especially impactful considering where we are on the beveridge curve..

[Citrini @citrini]

Early Wednesday morning we shared a high conviction macro pair trade in our subscriber chat that probably still has upside from here, long SFRH7 @ 96.20, which we averaged down on Thursday, paired with short ES @ 6660.

Here’s the reasoning:

[Whitney Baker @TotemMacro]

They must not expand base money to deal with a dollar funding squeeze caused by a) collapsing trade; b) a recessionary credit impulse; c) fiscal austerity; and of course, 4) acute oil squeeze on both real economy spending and asset flows. To be clear, the oil squeeze is biblical, but all of the below would've happened exactly now regardless of war or no war. There was already enough brewing to cause this.

These aligned forces are why the market is weak, yields are blowing out, vix and spreads are rising, yields are backing up in a bear flattener, the basis spread is blowing out, cross-currency swaps are moving, and the dollar is rising. They need to let this happen.

They have lost the reserve currency luxury of being able to ease into recessions and bear markets. They have lost it because they have caused their biggest creditors to blow up financially (and now in many cases literally). They are now up against a global sudden stop in capital flows, prompted by a physical energy squeeze and a related collase in both global demand and global current account surpluses. This squeeze will cause accelerating selling of US assets by foreigners. They must not accomodate that dollar pressure by easing, or it will create a self-reinforcing spiral of currency weakness and inflation. They have put themselves in this position.