This is an amazing video recommendation from Jukan about CPO.
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NPO is still 50% copper, 50% optics. The real CPO ramp is unlikely to begin until 2027 when 2.5D CPO will have 20% copper and 80% optics.
In 2030, the split will be 100% optics in 3D CPO (COUPE XPU)
The true hurdle is in maintenance for CPO in 2027 and 2030.
Pluggable/OBO/NPO (Green/Yellow): If an optical laser or engine fails, field technicians can easily hot-swap a pluggable module at the faceplate, or replace an NPO module on the board without tossing the expensive ASIC.
2.5D & 3D CPO (Red): Once the PIC and laser/optical components are physically bound inside the package or stacked directly under the ASIC, they can no longer be individually serviced. If a single optical component fails, the entire high-value compute engine (the XPU/Switch) is essentially bricked.
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CPO supply chain, per @semivision_tw:
1. CSP
Nvidia $NVDA
AWS $AMZN
Meta $META
ByteDance
Microsoft $MSFT
2. SOI Wafer
Soitec
ShinEtsu
SEMCO
IntelliEPI
3. Connector
Amphenol
Senko
US Conec
T&S Communications
Samtec
LightSense
Siemon
4. Testing
WinWay
MPI Co.
Hon Precision
Chroma
5. Fiber
Corning $GLW
YOFC
Sumitomo Electric
FiberHome
Prysmian
ZTT
Fujikura
Futong Group
Hengtong Fiber
6. ELS
Furukawa Electric
Broadcom
Lumentum
Sumitomo Electric
TE Connectivity
Coherent
O-Net Technologies
7. PIC Design & EDA
IBM $IBM
Intel $INTC
Sicoya
MACOM $MTSI
Juniper
Cisco $CSCO
SiFotonics
POET Technologies $POET
Ansys - part of Synopsys
Ayar Labs
Fujitsu
Marvell $MRVL
Lumentum $LITE
Infinera
Huawei
Ranovus
Cadence $CDNS
Skorpios
Synopsys $SNPS
OpenLight
8. Foundry
TSMC $TSM
Intel $INTC
Tower Semi $TSEM
Applied Optoelectronics $AOI
Silex
GlobalFoundries $GFS
Samsung
United Microelectronics $UMC
Acacia
STMicroelectronics $STM
9. EIC & DSP Design
Broadcom $AVGO
Coherent $COHR
Lumentum $LITE
Infinera
Ciena $CIEN
MACOM $MTSI
10. Light Source
LandMark Optoelectronics
Coherent $COHR
IntelliEPI
iQe
NICHIA
Sumitomo Electric
This rule has proven success, & will guarantee your portfolio to outperform the S&P 500 year after yearβ¦
Buy stocks when $VIX is $30.
Buy even more stocks when $VIX is above $45+
Sell stocks when $VIX is $14.
& simply repeat the cycle!
My portfolio went up over 1,100% after I made one change:
I started investing in disruptive themes.
Photonics β $AAOI $AXTI $AEHR
Space β $RKLB $ASTS $LUNR $PL
Robotics β $OUST $VPG $AMBA
AI Infrastructure β $NBIS $IREN
Power Semis β $NVTS $VICR
Defense β $ONDS $KTOS
Energy β $VST $TE $BE
That shift changed everything.
Still trying to catch up with @DeepValueBagger
@HolySmokas Iβm grateful that u made me bought AMD last year at avg 150 after hearing u shouting AMD in every single damn videos but I hated u for making me swap out of my $280 TSLA stock to $Adobe π€£π€£π€£ greatest regret everβ¦β¦
Everyone is hunting for the next semiconductor winner.
But Penang, Malaysia quietly packages 23% of every American-bound chip and runs 15% of the global OSAT and test market.
Three names sit at the center of it.
Here they are:
6/So when does this framework break?
Not when the Fed hikes. Not when CPI stays elevated. Not when sentiment hits new lows.
It breaks when AI CapEx stops generating returns that justify the cost of capital.
When the capacity race becomes a capacity glut.
That inflection won't be announced.
Watch for it in hyperscaler CapEx guidance revisions. Data center utilization rates. Nvidia's forward order cycle. Those are the real leading indicators now.
Not the Fed minutes.
2027 is where the AI memory story becomes far bigger than just GPUs and HBM..
I think the next bottlenecks become CXL memory expansion, MRDIMMs, KV-cache scaling, optical interconnects and rack-scale memory pooling.
Reasoning models and agentic AI massively increase memory requirements per session. GPUs alone canβt solve that efficiently anymore.
Thatβs why I think the next winners expand beyond $NVDA and $MU into names like:
- $ALAB (CXL memory fabric)
- $RMBS (MRDIMMs + HBM controllers)
- $CRDO and $MXL (AI interconnects)
- $ONTO and $CAMT (HBM inspection)
- $UCTT and $ICHR (subsystems)
- $COHU AI thermal test + HBM handling
The AI stack is quietly shifting from compute scaling toward memory orchestration and data movement.
The AI boom is not over. It has barely started.
What happened in 2023 to now was infrastructure seeding. What is coming next is full-scale deployment across every industry on the planet. The companies that own the compute, the networking, the power, the software, and the data centers are going to compound for years.
I want quality med-to-mega cap companies with real demand, and clear bottlenecks.
AI compute
NVDA: The leader in AI compute.
AMD: Earlier in the cycle, with room to gain share.
AVGO: Custom AI chips, networking, and infrastructure.
ARM: Benefits across mobile, edge, and AI architecture.
QCOM: Edge AI exposure in mobile and auto.
INTC: Turnaround and foundry optionality.
Semiconductor manufacturing
ASML: The lithography bottleneck.
TSM: The foundry backbone of AI hardware.
AMAT: Essential wafer-fab equipment.
LRCX: Etch and deposition.
KLAC: Process control and inspection.
TER: Chip testing.
AI networking
ANET: One of the most important AI networking names.
MRVL: Data-center connectivity and custom silicon.
CRDO: AI interconnect and serdes exposure.
CIEN: Optical networking demand.
CSCO: Slower growth, but still relevant.
GLW: Fiber and materials demand.
LITE: Optical components exposure.
COHR: Optical components exposure.
Servers and storage
DELL: AI servers and enterprise systems.
HPE: Enterprise infrastructure and supercomputing.
MU: Memory bottleneck exposure.
PSTG: High-performance storage.
NTAP: Hybrid cloud storage.
WDC: Cold storage at scale.
STX: Cold storage at scale.
Power and cooling
VRT: Clean AI cooling and power exposure.
ETN: Power management and electrical infrastructure.
GEV: Grid and power equipment.
CEG: Nuclear baseload power.
VST: Data-center power demand.
NEE: Grid and generation exposure.
DUK: Grid and generation exposure.
Enterprise AI
MSFT: Core AI platform and enterprise distribution.
GOOGL: Undervalued AI platform with search, cloud, and models.
ORCL: Cloud infrastructure and database leverage.
META: AI-enabled ad platform.
SNOW: Data layer for AI.
PLTR: Enterprise AI and government.
NET: Edge infrastructure and inference.
DDOG: Observability for AI-heavy systems.
MDB: Application data infrastructure.
NBIS: Higher-beta AI cloud name.
Data centers
EQIX: Premium interconnection and colocation.
DLR: Hyperscale data-center infrastructure.
AMT: Tower and data infrastructure.
IRM: Data center and records management.
APLD: AI-focused data center operator..
Defense and Space
LMT: Defense prime with AI integration.
RTX: Aerospace, defense, and autonomous systems.
NOC: Defense tech, space, and cyber.
GD: Defense platforms and systems.
AVAV: Drones and autonomous systems.
RKLB: Defense and launch systems.
RKLB: Cleanest space name with revenue and launch activity.
ASTS: High-upside, but execution-heavy.
LUNR: More speculative, but interesting.
Optics and fiber
GLW: Fiber and materials leader.
CIEN: Optical networking for AI clusters.
LITE: Optical components.
COHR: Optical components.
Solar and clean energy
FSLR: Cleanest solar name with utility-scale exposure.
ENPH: Residential solar and more cyclical.
RUN: Higher risk and financing-sensitive.
SEDG: Turnaround name.
NEE: Clean power and grid exposure.
Nuclear and uranium
CEG: Best nuclear utility-style name.
VST: Generation exposure.
NEE: Grid and baseload exposure.
DUK: Grid and baseload exposure.
CCJ: Uranium supplier exposure.
OKLO: More speculative SMR name.
Quantum
IONQ: Optionality name.
RGTI: Optionality name.
QBTS: Optionality name.
INFQ: NVIDIA-tied quantum name.
QTUM: Cleaner ETF route
Strategic materials
MP: Rare earths and strategic materials.
UUUU: Strategic materials and uranium.
USAR: Rare earth exposure.
CRML: Rare earth exposure.
What this captures is simple: the AI trade is bigger than chips. It runs through compute, networking, power, storage, data centers, software, and the adjacent sectors that support the buildout.
This is not a trading list. This is a positioning list.
You do not need to own all of these. You need to understand all of these. Pick your conviction plays, size them correctly, and hold through the volatility.
Take the long weekend to study them.
Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why:
1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security
2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count
3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai
4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle
5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now.
6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix
7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax
8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time
9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade
10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff
11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now
12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google.
13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it.
14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america
15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild.
16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act)
17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon.
18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well.
19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important
20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff
21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight?
22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks
23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long
24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition
25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck
26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors.
27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains
28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity.
29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine.
30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE
Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.