Binnytrades

Equity trader. Nothing on this page is financial advice.

Largest Holdings: $IREN, $RKLB, $RDW, $ADUR

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

Not enough compute, eh?

Hmmmm $IREN…

[Kimi.ai @Kimi_Moonshot]

Kimi K3 has received far more love than we expected, and our GPUs are feeling it.

Over the past 48 hours, demand has pushed close to the limits of our current capacity. To protect the experience of existing subscribers, we're temporarily pausing new subscriptions and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are not affected.

We're adding capacity as fast as we can and will reopen new subscription spots in batches.

Going forward, we'll also split membership into two more focused plans: Kimi Membership for Kimi Web, App, and Work; and Kimi Code Membership for coding workflows. This will help us match compute more precisely and keep the experience stable.

Thank you for your patience and understanding!

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

Us against the world brother.

I'm still bullish and holding my $IREN, though I cant blame people for moving on.

[BitcoinAIGuy @BitcoinAIGuy]

Am I the only $IREN bull left? Seeing lots of capitulation

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

Great news for $IREN!

p.s. love the use of satellite imagery to see things like this 🤣

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

$IREN Has officially broken ground on Sweetwater 2

Ahead of site civil works, a substation and construction warehouse are to be build.

With just 15~17 months until energization, grading of the first part of the site is now in progress.

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

Should the CEO RSUs require a $150 price target?

I think so, if you do too, please visit @jiahanjimliu’s post and vote accordingly. :)

[Jim Liu @jiahanjimliu]

$IREN: Performance Target for CEO RSU Compensation - Calling All Retail

I support @neel_epochal's call that we need to attach a performance target for each of @danroberts0101's and Will's 9.1m share compensation package.

I believe in $IREN hitting $150, shouldn't Dan and Will? If Dan and Will do what they claim, then $150 is a nothing burger. Even by 2027 when their first tranche vests. Can Dan and Will please consider adding a $150 stock price target as a performance metric for their RSU compensation package? This will instill confidence in retail that has supported them for years.

I am a small retailer with 37.2k shares. I can confirm @neel_epochal has 703k shares. There are significant retail whales with one person at 3m+ common shares. Can we get @leopoldasch whose fund owns 11m shares to support this?

Poll in quoted post since X didn't let me attach poll to long post.

[Jim Liu @jiahanjimliu]

$IREN: Performance Target for CEO RSU Compensation - Calling All Retail

I support @neel_epochal's call that we need to attach a performance target for each of @danroberts0101's and Will's 9.1m share compensation package.

I believe in $IREN hitting $150, shouldn't Dan and Will? If Dan and Will do what they claim, then $150 is a nothing burger. Even by 2027 when their first tranche vests. Can Dan and Will please consider adding a $150 stock price target as a performance metric for their RSU compensation package? This will instill confidence in retail that has supported them for years.

I am a small retailer with 37.2k shares. I can confirm @neel_epochal has 703k shares. There are significant retail whales with one person at 3m+ common shares. Can we get @leopoldasch whose fund owns 11m shares to support this?

Poll in quoted post since X didn't let me attach poll to long post.

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

🎯

[Oli @OInvests]

$IREN : RSU grant to Co-CEOs Dan and Will Roberts.

9.1 million RSUs each. 18.2 million combined. 4 year vesting. 2 year mandatory post-vesting hold. No additional equity grants until 2031.

On the surface the structure looks shareholder friendly. Long lockup. No immediate sell pressure. Board alignment.

But here’s my concern.

18.2 million RSUs represents 5.09% dilution of current shares outstanding.

This isn’t happening in isolation.

IREN’s share count has nearly tripled from roughly 100 million in 2024 to over 357 million today.

ATM facility expanded to $6 billion.

Stock based compensation trailing 12 months - $408 million record high.

The RSUs are purely time based. No ARR targets. No revenue milestones. No stock price hurdles. Dan and Will vest automatically as long as they remain employed, regardless of whether $4.4B ARR is hit or not.

Two separate actions worth distinguishing.

May 2025 - the board modified existing performance RSUs into time based awards because the original stock price targets were missed.

June 30 2026 - the board authorised a brand new 18.2 million RSU block with no performance hurdles attached from the outset.

The first was damage control. The second is a deliberate philosophy choice. Together they establish a pattern.

In previous years $IREN used Performance RSUs with aggressive stock price milestones ranging from $20 to $1,850. That accountability mechanism has now been removed entirely.

The traditional structure was clear. Hit the milestones or don’t get paid. Shareholders accept dilution because the stock price has multiplied to justify it.

The new structure is different. 5.09% dilution is guaranteed regardless of execution. If the stock drops to $5 Dan and Will still walk away with a combined package worth $91M just for showing up.

The board’s argument - long term ownership stake is a cleaner incentive. Six year lockup chains personal net worth to the stock. No new grants until 2031.

That’s a reasonable position. But it removes the explicit accountability mechanism that performance hurdles provide.

The only genuine silver lining - the two year post-vesting hold prevents promotional pumps and short term dumps onto retail.

I remain invested in $IREN and believe in the thesis. But shareholders have funded this buildout through repeated dilution. The bar for executive compensation should be rising alongside the ambition of the targets management itself has set.

This is a legitimate governance concern.

$IREN

NFA

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

Sums it up perfectly.

[Alex @AlexSchettino]

$IREN 😂😂😂😂

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@BitcoinAIGuy I tend to agree, but I am also skeptical as to how long "hoarding power" is going to be beneficial.

As there are many others doing the same, and I am sure we can expect chips to become more efficient in the foreseeable future.

I'm still holding my $IREN, but I am disappointed.

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@DollarCostAvg Absolutely ridiculous... easier for them to do this than hit the performance targets eh?

Meanwhile Sir Peter Beck of $RKLB has recently done the opposite to "hire more engineers"

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@DollarCostAvg Ffs.😄

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@DollarCostAvg Unreal. 🥀🥀🥀

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@XCapitalMgmt Brilliant. Would be nice if management could read and consider this.

@IREN_Ltd @danroberts0101

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@BitcoinAIGuy $IREN has been really painful recently...

I agree.

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

Undervalued. Best buy in the MAG 7 right now.

I am about 8% MSFT.

Not financial advice :)

[Flippie | Stock Analysis @FlippieFinance]

$MSFT in 2023:

- Stock: $370
- Revenue: $212B
- Net income: $72B

$MSFT now:

- Stock: $370
- Revenue: $319B
- Net income: $125B

Make this make any sense..

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@FransBakker9812 on a scale from 1-Cooked, how cooked are we if we go into Q4 '26 without any new deals?

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

$IREN Earnings in 5 weeks - The Good and the Bad

📈 The good - from likely to less likely
1. Horizon 1 delivery to $MSFT.
2. 100%+ AI revenue growth QoQ.
3. Reiterated Horizon 1-4 delivery in 2026.
4. Horizon 5-6 deal signed.
5. Updated, increased, guidance for EOY.
6. Concrete plans for first substation in SW1.

📉 The bad - all very likely
1. $520m impairment charges associated with the transition from Bitcoin mining to AI Cloud.
2. Miss on analyst consensus headline revenue, and EPS.
3. A large amount of shares issued, but not enough to close the ATM.
4. Extraordinary amount of share-based compensation, end-of-year bonuses, RSUs, grants, and other expenses associated with attracking and retaining talent, massively inflating SG&A well out of proportions to the realized revenue growth.
5. A complete trainwreck of a hit on the convertible note instruments, realized by the same people that are causing the stock to close at insane low levels later today: the convertible note arbitrage dogs.
6. Retarded analyst questions on the call
7. Various one-offs that make it all look even worse.
8. Amateur hour before, during, and after the earnings call.
9. Desillusion across the board.
10. The red candle of death.

Happy last day of FY2026 everyone.

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

If $IREN reaches their $4.4B ARR by EOY as forecasted, then we can still consider management to be trustworthy.

If they fail to meet this, and we continue sponsoring sport, it may be time to throw in the towel and move on.

$NBIS has undoubtedly been the better pick, $IREN needs to start playing catch-up or at least give us a glimpse of hope that it is possible for them to catch up.

Dilution to fund expansion instead of deals... at what point does it end?

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@DollarCostAvg Source: trust me bro

So far we’ve all flopped with our predictions, when deal?

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

Well… this is not what I was expecting to see this evening. I’m not the biggest fan of all the sport sponsorship that $IREN has been doing.

Why are we sponsoring things like this?

What do you guys think? 😬

[IREN @IREN_Ltd]

The ultimate competitive advantage is built from the ground up. Thrilled to partner with the Golden State Warriors — and the full Golden State family — as we work together to shape what's next.

[Binnytrades @binny_trades]

@SylentTrade @danroberts0101 Just a matter of time. ⏰