bis

doing quant stuff on prediction markets

[bis @bisacap]

@ToonMatthewT1 thanks for sharing

[Toon Matthew @ToonMatthewT1]

I spent the last 5 years asking 400 people a single question. It changed how I think about generating an edge in trading.

The question: Name a president that you don't think other people will name, keeping in mind that other people are also trying to name a president that others won't name.

Take a moment to answer before reading on.

The results map directly onto how I think about alpha.

Bucket the 45 presidents into 6 tiers by name recognition with Tier 1 being the most famous and Tier 6 the most obscure. The results show a clear bias toward obscurity—selections rise steadily from Tier 2 through Tier 6—with a sharp reverse-psychology spike back up at Tier 1. People favor going obscure ("Who would think of Millard Fillmore?") but many deploy maximum reverse psychology ("Washington is too obvious. Nobody will say him"). In reality, Washington and Fillmore are the two most common answers. [sorry, @dumborambo_, it is true]

The sweet spot is Tier 2: Clinton, JFK, Jefferson, both Bushes, Nixon, LBJ. Household names, but not top-of-mindnames. Out of 407 respondents, only 20 picked from this group. That is 16% of presidents, under 5% of selections. Most people are genuinely shocked to learn these are the best answers. [Maybe except for @Rigatohni, who picked the last unnamed president (George W. Bush)].

This is how I approach every market I've traded. Sports betting, options, commodities, prediction markets.

Tier 1 alpha ("Google has the best search engine," "Nvidia makes the chips") is real but saturated. The edge is gone before you arrive. Tier 6 alpha (tracking flight delays to beat sportsbooks, exotic statistical arbitrage) sounds clever but is almost always fruitless for the same reason: everyone who thinks they're being original is being original in the same direction.

Tier 2 alpha is the sweet spot. It is never complicated and does not require a Harvard PhD, but it is also never obvious enough that the crowd has caught on.

The smartest people I know have failed in trading because they couldn't believe Tier 2 alpha existed. Anything approachable, they assumed, had already been found by someone smarter. When I showed them edges that were statistically irrefutable, they called me a blind squirrel.

I used to half-believe them. But the more edges I find, the more the pattern holds. The best alpha is Tier 2. Once you see it, you'll wonder why you didn't see it sooner.

[MO @embrron]

Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas

What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface.

The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance.

Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built.

A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging.

https://t.co/wjx9TkbkbB

[bis @bisacap]

@KevinWSHPod as someone who lives in london - NYC is on another level

[bis @bisacap]

@gajesh you should check out @trysuper_ - you can copy trade all the AI models without needing to lock up funds in a vault

[bis @bisacap]

@c89 @lookonchain @trysuper_ - you can track and receive alerts on telegram

[bis @bisacap]

@0xCryptoSam @MessariCrypto missing @trysuper_ for frontends ser

[bis @bisacap]

some of these AI models are such notoriously bad traders

that are most successful users are actually counter trading them not copying

[Jay A @jay_azhang]

DeepSeek's portfolio is down (-43%) in the past day

How about yours?

[bis @bisacap]

@ostium excited for this

[nairolf @0xNairolf]

random prediction:

copytrading will be 100x bigger

people will follow and copy ai agents, influencers, traders, whoever that has good reputation

trading becomes a social game, basically socialfi in its purest form

[bis @bisacap]

@0xNairolf working hard on this with @trysuper_

[bis @bisacap]

some interesting data on how the models trade so far:

-grok has the longest average hold time per trade (2 days)
-gemini is the most active with 50+ trades but also the worst performer
-none of the models are going full degen - most use 10–25x leverage
-btc is driving most of the gains so far

[SuperX @trysuper_]

We just added support for @the_nof1 AI trading competition on SuperX 🤖

Track or copy trade the best performing AI models trading autonomously on Hyperliquid

Available on Web & Telegram

[bis @bisacap]

@0xNairolf solving this with @trysuper_

[Hyperliquid @HyperliquidX]

On Hyperliquid, there is no listing fee, no listing department, and no gatekeepers.

Spot deployment on Hyperliquid is permissionless. Anyone can deploy a spot asset by paying a gas fee in HYPE. Deployers can choose to receive up to 50% of trading fees on their spot pairs. Everything is transparent and verifiable onchain.

The full defi lifecycle includes building a project, launching a token, and trading that token. Every step of that journey can be done permissionlessly on Hyperliquid.

[cabbala @cabbala1022]

👉 https://t.co/WBBFYVYiSQ

Bot制作してて先月末から裁量殆ど出来んかったのでその間Hyperliquid上のUserのコピトレ出来るPJで1ヶ月位検証してみたけど、Copyの精度高く先日の暴落でもリストに入れた全Walletしっかり利益出せてた🥰

Userごとの利益率・DD・取引頻度まで詳細に分析可能だし、ハイリキの取引履歴は捏造出来んから透明性も◎

Hyper X本体+ハイリキ本家の出来高も刻めるからエアドロ狙い観点でもダブルで美味い

リファ踏みしてもらった方にテスト運用でフォローしてたWalletリスト共有しま～す

登録完了後フォロー＆DM下さい〜

[bis @bisacap]

@CryptoA77468 @Backpack that’s insane

[bis @bisacap]

@TheWhiteWhaleHL perfectly placed short - they definitely knew something

https://t.co/BQo5MfTe9A

[bis @bisacap]

hard not to believe the whale wasn't trading on inside info given the pixel perfect $BTC short

[bis @bisacap]

hard not to believe the whale wasn't trading on inside info given the pixel perfect $BTC short

[MLM @mlmabc]

In case you didn’t know - the BTC whale closed 90% of his BTC short and fully closed his ETH short, making around $190–$200M profit in just one day on Hyperliquid.

The crazy part is that he shorted another 9 figs worth of BTC and ETH minutes before the cascade happened. And this was just publicly on Hyperliquid imagine what he did on CEXs or elsewhere. I’m pretty sure this guy played a huge role in what happened today.

https://t.co/KPzg4u1tN8

https://t.co/K9MFyjcAL4

[bis @bisacap]

@binance hyperliquid

[bis @bisacap]

trump just single-handely nuked the entire market 💀

[db @tier10k]

Welcome back to the trade wars

*TRUMP: US TO IMPOSE 100% TARIFF ON CHINA STARTING NOV 1