Brian McCormick

Sharing investment research. Fundamental asymmetric approach. Fintechs, insurtechs, and AI.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

I mapped SaaS by moat strength × AI tailwind in April.

7 weeks later, equal-weight returns:

🔵 AI Compounders: +48.0%
🟡 Yellow/middle: +23.9%
🔴 Danger Zone: +16.5%

The market is separating compounders from the structurally exposed.

Top AI Compounders: $SNOW $NET $CRWD $PANW $DDOG $CFLT $FROG $RBRK $PLTR $MDB

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

Went through 37 B2B SaaS stocks on moat strength × AI tailwind:

Top AI Compounders: $PLTR $MDB $SNOW $NET $CRWD $PANW $DDOG $CFLT $FROG $RBRK

Danger Zone: $FVRR $UPWK $ASAN $MNDY $ZM $DBX $DOCU

Pricing not considered. Purely defensibility + AI leverage.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@JakeVyper Just came out, so might take a month or so to show up in some places

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

$CELH of the day

Tastes exactly like a tropical freeze. Distinct from Alani slush flavors.

Convenience store also had a Pepsi stand alone cold vault, fully stocked with Alani Nu.

Overall, give this flavor 8/10.

Best as a summer LTO, IMO. The LTO strategy works well for Alani and Celsius can benefit to drive demand while needing less sku rationalization, which has been a drag from less popular vibe lines

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@codyhrountree Tastes good. Ingredient list is arguably the worst though.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

$CELH Alani Nu targets female demographic.

Hard case for Texas claiming specific deceptive marketing for Alani Nu/distributors when Ghost literally licenses childhood brands (Welch’s, Sour Patch Kids, Swedish Fish, etc.)

Ghost uses a cartoon mascot

Ghost uses bright candy aesthetics

An investigator would have difficulty arguing those products have no youth appeal while Alani somehow uniquely does.

I view this largely as noise on the headline that can spur some industry wide slight packaging updates.

As I said before, Alani displays caffeine count more prominently than anyone else on the can. Energy drinks are defined by caffeine. It’s been a category for 20 years now, Monster already went through the same thing.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@YikesBikessss Some of price movement has been artificial sellers that have to become buyers later.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

$CELH short interest keeps climbing as we head into summer and the World Cup

Nearly 50% increase in short float since earnings

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@BurritoEveryDay Sure, but very low. Typical result is clearer labeling.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

$CELH is currently trading at a P/E of 13 if you annualize Q1 and back out one time costs

[Wexboy @Wexboy_Value]

Nice discussion re $CELH with third-place Pershing Square Challenge winners:

https://t.co/NgNiKXxczg

https://t.co/K4PJVplqGU

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

Idk, the announcement said they don’t put any label “related to age” or health, but those labels are on the Alani Nu can.

Celsius cans say don’t consume more than 2 and not for under 18. That’s better IMO. Probably a good industry standard to be more specific.

Could be some good changes like that for labeling.

[Attorney General Ken Paxton @KenPaxtonTX]

NEW: I launched an investigation into the Celsius energy drink company to protect Texas children from dangerous levels of caffeine.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

Same thing with $CELH here happened to $MNST in 2013

The biggest practical outcomes were:

- Monster agreed to stop labeling some products as dietary supplements and instead classify them as beverages.
- Monster began disclosing caffeine content more clearly on cans.
- The company made some adjustments to labeling and marketing practices.

Those are now essentially industry standards across all brands, including Celsius.

[Sam Badawi @Sam_Badawi]

$CELH is under investigation by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over concerns that its marketing and high-caffeine energy drinks may appeal to children.

The probe adds regulatory pressure as officials examine whether the company’s products are being promoted to younger consumers.

[Kab X 🇺🇸 @KabraxFX]

$ROOT just announced a new partnership with Hugo Insurance, the first "pay-at-your-pace" liability insurance provider, expanding full coverage options to Hugo's customer base across 16 states.

Hugo serves drivers who've been underserved by traditional insurance, offering flexible payment structures that fit real budgets.

This is the embedded channel strategy continuing to execute. $ROOT doesn't need to find these customers - they're already in Hugo's ecosystem actively making insurance decisions.

Another partner, another distribution channel, another data source, $ROOT's flywheel just keeps turning!

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@BurritoEveryDay It’s non-material noise

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$IOT (Samsara) #earnings are out:

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@internpierre @hereispolo @ConsensusGurus Then, idk what you’re trying to accomplish in 2026 when forward P/E already going to hit 17-19 as a consumer product

Even if growth slows to inflation, P/E there is inline with consumer products at no growth

And you also would be assuming international will be complete failure

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

Who’s selling $CELH at 52-week lows a week before the World Cup and summer sales begin?

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@internpierre @hereispolo @ConsensusGurus I think yall are stuck in 2024. Saw the same thing happened to $LMND shorts in 2022-23 vs 2025. Many exited at a loss.

Have to update the thesis as business evolves. Very different today.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

I do, and big picture we have scanner data with velocity and TDP reported, which gives overall picture.

Alani is actually YoY up on velocity while getting additional distribution. Strong demand.

Celsius undergoing SKU rationalization, which I covered.

Celsius reported they got triple digit shelf gains just starting to come online this year, which are higher velocity placements, rather than dry shelves in aisle.

Celsius also now controls the planogram for pepsi energy drink vaults.

You’re also shorting into summer with better Alani distribution and world cup bumper.

Look at $FROG after talking to a few people. Have to look at big picture or you’ll talk yourself into whatever you want to believe.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@internpierre @hereispolo @ConsensusGurus Etc…

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

9-month chart. Market baskets things.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

@internpierre @hereispolo @ConsensusGurus FYI - not sure if you’re aware but Celh isn’t traded overall as individual stock. It’s basketed. Just like software, etc…

So you’re shorting the group unless it’s a longterm short.

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

3-year chart comparing $ELF and $CELH

[Luca Vogt @LucaVogtFinance]

@bjmtweets New Alani flavour is about to get released. Grape Cotton Candy. I observe what people say about it on social media in the upcoming weeks. +their most hyped flavour witch‘s brew will come back in late july/early august

[Brian McCormick @bjmtweets]

Be real. Bigger deal back then when energy drinks were earlier in popularity and things less labeled.

Now it’s standardized as result. Alani Nu puts caffeine content more prominent than any other brand on front, including Monster.

Common noise in industry. They aren’t going to require blank packaging for whole industry. Even alcohol RTD has decorative fruity looking designs in US.