The escalation now appears increasingly unavoidable, especially as President Trump significantly raises the stakes.
Iran is unlikely to back down. It will likely test U.S. resolve by targeting American naval assets, while also attempting to disrupt commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or deter tankers from transiting altogether.
Such developments would almost certainly trigger a sharp spike in global oil prices, with cascading second and third order effects particularly across Asian economies that rely heavily on Gulf energy flows. At the same time, Iran will aim to project resilience and avoid appearing to capitulate under pressure.
Further escalation would increase the likelihood of Houthi action in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially threatening another critical maritime chokepoint. It would also raise the risk of Iranian strikes against infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz, including pipelines such as the East-West corridor.
While Iran would sustain significant damage, it will attempt to maintain oil exports through alternative routes like the Jask terminal, calculating that Gulf states may ultimately suffer greater economic harm.
In any case, this is not a scenario with a clear winner, only varying degrees of loss.
#iran
@noam_dworman@ProfessorPape this guy is so pompous he is hard to listen to. He reminds me of the Dr. Fauci "I am the science" reveal. He is an academic, used to a one way lecture to cow towed students. Always right, but wrong again Professor.
@noam_dworman Noam,
I have seen Pape "interviewed" multiple times in recent days. He reminds me of Dr. Fauci when he said "I am the science". He is an academic who is very used to lecturing not engaging with people. However your interview with him was fantastic and enlightening. Excellent job