Blaze Pascal

the rainmaking mandala

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@jukan05 Lotte's discloses 0.8um Rz for HVLP4 vs Kinzoku 0.5um

HVLP5 should be <0.5um. I think Lotte's HVLP4 is more like HVLP3

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

A few things incorrect / missing in this article:

Kinzoku’s HVLP capacity is >5x Lotte’s today and Kinzoku is not supply constrained

Kinzoku will ~7x HVLP4+ production over the next two years (80% share today)

Lotte’s “HVLP4” copper foil has twice the surface roughness (e.g., less performant)

There is a shortage of Mifune’s copper foil machines from Japan

Copper foil will be in such short supply that even with flawless execution, Lotte 10x’ing capacity would not change much

[Jukan @jukan05]

[Exclusive] Lotte Energy Materials to Supply AI Circuit Foil to NVIDIA Starting This Month

Lotte Energy Materials will begin supplying AI circuit foil used in NVIDIA's next generation graphics processing units (GPUs) in earnest starting this month. The company had originally planned to begin supply in the second half of this year, but moved up the timeline at NVIDIA's request. In preparation for an aggressive capacity buildout, Lotte Energy Materials is understood to have recently placed a bulk order with a partner for more than ten times its previous volume of copper.

According to industry sources on the 1st, Lotte Energy Materials will begin full scale shipments of AI circuit foil from its Iksan plant in North Jeolla Province this month. Circuit foil is an ultra thin metal sheet one twentieth the thickness of A4 paper. It is a foundational material used when AI accelerators process large volumes of data, and its supply price is more than three to four times higher than that of ordinary copper foil for electric vehicle batteries. Having designated AI circuit foil as its next growth driver, Lotte Energy Materials has converted the Iksan plant, which previously produced copper foil for EV batteries, into an AI circuit foil production line.

Once Lotte Energy Materials produces the circuit foil, Doosan Electro Materials BG manufactures the copper clad laminate (CCL) based on it, and Isu Petasys produces the printed circuit board (PCB), which is ultimately supplied to NVIDIA. Both companies will ramp up supply to NVIDIA this month.

Lotte Energy Materials is reducing the share of its core EV copper foil business and shifting its center of gravity toward AI circuit foil. It is currently producing circuit foil using part of the Iksan plant's production line, but next year it will transform the entire Iksan plant into a dedicated AI circuit foil production base. The company plans to increase capacity from 3,700 tons this year to 16,000 tons next year, and to add further production lines after 2028.

The high barriers to entry in the AI circuit foil market are another positive factor. Globally, the only players capable of mass producing AI circuit foil are Japan's Mitsui Mining & Smelting, and Korea's Lotte Energy Materials and Solus Advanced Materials. The frontrunner, Mitsui, has been unable to keep up with explosive demand due to a recently stalled expansion schedule, while Solus Advanced Materials has sold off the relevant subsidiary. An industry official said, "AI circuit foil requires highly advanced rolling technology, so it is difficult to convert a line in a short period of time," adding that "this is effectively an opportunity for Lotte to seize leadership of the market."

The market views this as the Lotte Group, which had been sidelined during the AI boom, making a full fledged entry into the NVIDIA value chain. On the day, Lotte Energy Materials closed at 64,300 won, up 14.62% from the previous trading session.

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

Thanks dawg 👾

it takes 3-4 year to bring on greenfield capacity

Current spot/LTA price is below incentive price to bring on new capacity

Price needs to go up A LOT or there will not be enough wafer

Hynix/Sammy/etc capacity expansion tomorrow needed SUMCO greenfield yesterday

SUMCO canceled greenfield two month ago

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

LMAO
This will be so fucking funny
Big W for my friend @blaze__pascal
He called this months ago

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

The trade for the past year has been to buy when they say no price hike or capacity.

A year ago they said no T-Glass hikes and have since raised by ~30%. Stock up 400%ish since.

Three quarters ago they said no T-Glass capacity growth in FY3/27 and now it’s +20-30%. Stock +150%ish since.

I think they expand capacity (again) and lock in higher prices

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@rennyzucker @bucketshopcap Ye closer to 35% now. Need to look at AIP. Thanks dawg

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@rennyzucker @bucketshopcap Perhaps I missed in the note but Renesas (PMICs + memory interfaces, as you highlight) owns ~40% of WOLF… and will own 15% of SITM!

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@dalibali2 He looks like a raw 300mm silicon wafer

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@zephyr_z9 Wonder if Renesas will monetize that 40% stake in WOLF… + the 15% in SITM…

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@TheLAPurchaser On the heels of the heels of Elite.. worth looking at who supplies the copper foil and glass fabric for CCL.. Mitsui Kinzoku (5706 JP) and Nittobo (3110 JP)

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@citrini 6723 JP

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@atelicinvest So much hate for ToTo on this platform. Don’t become a boomer-san 🪷

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@sssjeffpu Mitsui Kingzoku must be happy

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@sssjeffpu Excellent work. Do you also expect a MicroThing shortage driven by memory PKG?

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@valuedrift $000150.KS

Doosan Corp - HoldCo for Enerbility + the CCL business at discount to NAV

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@blondesnmoney

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@zephyr_z9 5802 the beast. LTAs cometh

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@jukan05 @PhotonCap Renesas for memory interface + TPU PMICs?

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@zephyr_z9 Thanks baller

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@zephyr_z9 Isn’t the ABF shortage due to T-Glass vs. lack of ABF capacity?

[Blaze Pascal @blaze__pascal]

@ABC87791035 The White House was kind enough to give you the answer key—

https://t.co/DOl6BESmPZ