Bloomnerd

Tracking key influencers, to make sense of our favourite stocks. Tesla, Apple, Google etc.

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@bandmagic_2022 @ValueAnalyst1 Wow

[Gary Black @garyblack00]

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

$SPCX now sits at $126/share - a stunning 45% reversal in just one month from its post-IPO peak of $226 and well below its IPO price of $135. SPCX still trades at FY’2026 EV/Revs of 45x.

Iconic Wall Street investor Peter Lynch was not a fan of buying into small IPO floats, and liked to say that IPO stood for “it’s probably overpriced”.

The totally unproven plans to build data centres in space were endlessly dissected. The SPCX prospectus spelled out the ridiculous total addressable market the company was claiming: $US28.5 trillion, close to the entire GDP of the United States. SpaceX’s losses were disclosed and discussed.

Indeed, there may not have been an IPO in world history as closely scrutinised as this one. If investors still wanted to buy in despite all the risks, they deserved what they got.

That’s fair enough, at one level, but it ignores the cynical way that SpaceX, its investment bankers and its advisors structured this IPO to engineer short-term gain – and a $US500 billion fee pool – with seemingly little concern for long-term investors.

As Schroders head of Australian equity Martin Conlon wrote this week, investment banks know that “the vast pools of money directed towards rules-based investment processes”, such as passive investing and algorithmic trading, have changed the way markets work.

And so they successfully lobbied index market operators such as Nasdaq and FTSE Russell to – in the words of Conlon – pervert and game the rules so that large, loss-making companies such as SpaceX could gain almost immediate inclusion in major sharemarket indices.

The SpaceX float raised a historic $US85 billion in its IPO - 3x the size of the next largest IPO in history. But the bankers knew that they could create a “highly imbalanced supply/demand situation, where a free float of less than $US100 billion would set the price for more than $US2 trillion in paper market value.

Here we are today and SPCX still looks ridiculously overvalued at 45x 2026 EV/Revs. Yet 80% of the 36 WS analysts who have initiated coverage of SPCX have buy ratings on the stock. And only one - Morningstar, which presumably can’t earn future banking fees on SPCX - has a sell rating. That says it all.

Source: Financial Review

[Gary Black @garyblack00]

With $SPCX now at $166 (-10% today) and -25% from last week’s 225 peak, it’s hilarious listening to bullish analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg justify their aggressive price targets (WS consensus $235) posted last week. SPCX is uniquely positioned with great ambition but it’s still hard to justify analytically a valuation of 175x FY’2026 EV/Ebitda (and 62x EV/Rev) vs +35-40% exp long-term rev growth.

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@garyblack00 50 is a fair valuation. There’s a long way down yet.

[queen beetle @thequeenbeetle]

BYD makes a promise Tesla never has: If its self-driving system causes a crash, it covers all damages

"Taking on Level 3 and Level 4 liability early during the Level 2 stage demonstrates the company's absolute confidence."

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@chickengenius Facts 💯

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Hmmm…?

[Harry Eccles @Heccles94]

Musk has asked us to post more videos on X, so here goes

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Is this true?

[Jimmy @M44_1RJ]

🚨BREAKING🚨

Elon support by Retail investors has plummeted to below 43% now down from 77% 6mons ago according to recent poll conducted on random 10000 Tesla stock holders ! $TSLA

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@thebearbkg @ValueAnalyst1 @WR4NYGov Did he tweet this?

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Painful

[ValueAnalyst @ValueAnalyst1]

$TSLA is a busted growth and margin story

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@ValueAnalyst1 Is the true 👀

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Is this true 👀

[Motorhead @BradMunchen]

🚨 BREAKING: Tesla's "Unsupervised Robotaxis" were cut from 8->4.

Only 1 is in service while the others aren't operating.

"Supervised Robotaxis", with safety drivers had 14 crashes & are 4x less safe than humans.

Why launch the Cybercab if FSD isn't working properly?

$TSLA

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@StonkKing4 It’s absolutely sad what Elon has done to the brand.

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@garyblack00 Will it drop below $200 in the next 6 months?

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Not good

[ValueAnalyst @ValueAnalyst1]

$TSLA has stagnant revenues, declining earnings, and a CEO asking a known pedophile, "What day/night will be the wildest party on your island?"

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Wow

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Interesting

[Ryan Fosnaugh @ryan_fosnaugh]

@FredLambert $TSLA was ready to break below $400 when they put out the picture of a Cybercab at the assembly line. Well timed, but can it last?

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Facts

[Fred Lambert @FredLambert]

Honestly, it's hard for me to understand how gullible these Elon fans are.

They believe that Tesla is going to deliver a steering wheel-less Cybercab to consumers in 2026 while completely forgetting that Elon has falsely claimed that Tesla would make millions of existing Tesla vehicles unsupervised robotaxis for years.

Months before the end of 2025, Musk claimed that unsupervised FSD would come to consumer vehicles by the end of the year.

It didn't happen, and he is not even mentioning it now.

This is just the latest moved goal post to take away the focus from Tesla's failure to deliver a product it sold to customers since 2016.

At this point, if you believe, or act like you believe, anything Elon Musk says, you are either complicit, like Sawyer Merritt, Elon's propagandist in chief, or a plain moron.

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

Ouch!

[David Icke @davidicke]

It is dawning on ever more people that Musk is, and has always been, a monumental bullshitter who predicts, doesn't deliver, and then predicts again. The sequence just keeps on repeating. The elephant in the room is that he is not a 'genius'. He's a gofer frontman myth and AI sales pitcher for those far deeper in the shadows.

[Bloomnerd @bloomnerd]

@GerberKawasaki 🤣🤣👍🏾