Writing this song felt like a musical departure and coming home at the same time. Creating something for Jessie was a new challenge and also felt like second nature all at once. And being a @toystory kid from the age of 5 til now… is an adventure I plan to be on, to infinity and beyond.
Thank you to the brilliant Andrew Stanton for imagining me for this, all those years ago when you wrote this newest film. Thank you to the incomparable @RandyNewman or the gorgeous sonic tapestry of songs and scores you’ve meticulously woven over the years. You created the Toy Story musical world, and we are lucky to get to live in it.
By we, I mean myself and my pal @jackantonoff. We wrote this with so much adoration for these characters that made us laugh and helped us learn lessons and think outside the backyard all throughout our childhoods. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 is out everywhere now. 🤠🐴
https://t.co/2JaaQvxHjp
It’s a *Toy* Story 🤠
You knew it! My new original song “I Knew It, I Knew You” for Disney and @Pixar’s @toystory 5 will be yours on June 5th. I’ve always dreamed of getting to write for these characters who I’ve adored since I was a 5 year old kid watching the first Toy Story movie. I fell instantly in love with Toy Story 5 when I was lucky enough to see it in its early stages, and I wrote this song as soon as I got home from the screening. Sometimes you just know, right?
You can pre-order now exclusively at https://t.co/NoneI6kxdH and catch Toy Story 5 in theaters June 19th ☁️☁️☁️☁️☁️
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Pokemon 151 Ultra Premium Collection giveaway! ($1,000 Value)
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2025-26 Topps Chrome NBA Analysis & Deep Dive
After spending an inordinate amount of time with this behemoth of an odds sheet, one thing is unmistakably clear: 2025-26 Topps Chrome NBA is operating on an entirely different scale. This is not just the biggest Chrome NBA release ever. It is the largest Chrome release of any sport, period.
For context, a typical major product release usually lands somewhere around a few hundred distinct line items on the odds sheet. This one does not simply exceed that benchmark, it absolutely detonates it. The sheer volume of parallels, inserts, autos, and variations is unprecedented.
But this is the world we live in now. As promised, this is what growth looks like. There are some genuinely great things here, some not so great, and more than a few surprises. I’ll do my best to break this monster down into something digestible.
Total cards in product:
89,850,600
In this total, I’m excluding the “Refractor Box Set” format. This appears to be a complete Refractor set with a chance at an additional Refractor auto. Until we have clarity on how many of these are produced (which may be never), there’s no responsible way to include them in total production numbers. Even without them, this release still represents 32.7% more production than the next largest Chrome release ever, 2025 Topps Chrome at 67,711,008 cards.
Total production by format:
Hobby: 104,484 boxes (8,707 cases)
Jumbo: 34,640 boxes (4,330 cases)
Breaker’s: 31,380 boxes (5,230 cases)
Value: 1,164,200 boxes (29,105 cases)
Hangers: 505,920 boxes (7,905 cases)
Megas: 613,100 boxes (30,655 cases)
Fanatics Megas: 210,700 boxes (1,505 cases)
Fanatics Bulk Packs: 100,000 packs
As of now, I don’t know how Fanatics Bulk Packs will be distributed. They ran something similar for 2025 Archives that ultimately turned out to be a mixed Super Box format. Regardless of distribution, I am confident there are 100,000 packs produced. Pricing is still unknown, so I’m excluding them from value comparisons. That omission shouldn’t materially affect conclusions, as Bulk Packs have historically not been a competitive value format.
Sapphire
Predictably, there will also be a Sapphire SKU. Sapphire will be extremely limited, with 10,465 boxes (523 cases) produced. Each box contains, on average, 1 auto, 3 parallels, and 1 insert. These will likely presale for about $100,000 per box and trade for $1 million on the secondary market. Completely scientific estimate.
While we’re on Sapphire, it has clearly cemented itself as a permanent fixture. Can we also collectively normalize spelling and pronouncing Padparadscha correctly? Fittingly, it is a unique, ultra-scarce, and exquisitely colored pinkish-orange sapphire. Pronounced pod-puh-ROD-shuh. This is the perfect 1/1 parallel for a Sapphire product and it loses a little of its magic every time someone butchers the name, which has become so commonplace that even Topps’ own odds sheet creators can't even spell it correctly anymore. Sorry for the tangent.
Hit Frequencies
Hobby:
1 auto, 14.75 parallels, 12.37 inserts, 2.59 # cards (not counting autos)
Jumbo:
3 autos, 23 parallels, 15 inserts, 4.25 # cards (not counting autos)
Breaker’s:
2 autos, 3.67 parallels, 1.88 inserts, 4.3 # cards (not counting autos)
Value Boxes:
20 boxes per auto, 4.61 parallels/box, 2.1 inserts/box, 2.91 boxes per # card
Hangers:
32 boxes per auto, 1.64 parallels/box, 2.1 inserts/box, 5.5 boxes per # card
Mega Boxes:
10 boxes per auto, 11.5 parallels/box, 3 inserts/box, 1.87 boxes per # card
Fanatics Megas:
10 boxes per auto, 11.6 parallels/box, 3 inserts/box, 1.57 boxes per # card
Fanatics Bulk Packs:
140 packs per auto, 0.63 parallels/pack, 0.28 inserts/pack, 19.7 packs per numbered card
On the retail side, it appears cases are structured to uniformly produce 2 autos per case.
Value Landscape
Since preorders and launch day sales are already behind us, I’m forced to use secondary market pricing for hobby formats. Realistically, we are unlikely to see anything close to MSRP again. This pricing reality is also what makes retail, sparse as it may seem, a viable alternative for rippers of this product.
Prices used:
Hobby: $650
Jumbo: $1,575
Breaker’s: $1,475
Retail MSRPs used:
Value Boxes: $50
Hangers: $20
Mega Boxes: $85
Fanatics Megas: $100
$ per card:
Hangers: $1.33
Value Box: $1.79
Mega Boxes: $2.02
$ per parallel:
Mega Box: $7.38
Fanatics Megas: $8.60
Value Box: $10.85
$ per auto:
Jumbo: $525
Hangers: $640
Hobby: $650
$ per # card:
Hangers: $110.60
Value Box: $145.50
Fanatics Megas: $157
Let me detail the main variants that are available in Hobby SKUs but not in retail as I feel prices have reached a point where this is extremely valid.
In retail, you won’t find:
Parallels: Prism, Negative, any Waves (Blue, Green, Purple, Gold, Orange, Black, Red)
Common inserts (and their parallels): Loading…, Generation Rising, Tall Tales, Clutch Gene, X’s and Whoa’s!
Rare inserts: Rock Stars, Radiating Rookies. There is also an insert called 451, but only its Superfractors are listed on the odds sheet and are exclusive to Hobby and Jumbo. If base 451s exist, they will probably be rare and Hobby-exclusive as well.
Autos: Next Stop Signatures, Sky-Write Signatures, Signature Style
What you CAN find in retail, but not hobby formats:
Parallels: Basketball Refractor and parallels in Value/Bulk Packs, Pulsar and parallels in Hangers, Raywave and parallels in Megas, Lightboard Logos
Inserts (and their parallels): Go Time, Ball of Duty, Inspirational, Activators, Serenity
Rare inserts: Advisory, Glass Canvas, Paradox, Patented, Fanatical
Autos: Future Stars Autos, Chromograph and Chromograph Rookies, Stratospheric Signatures and Rookies
All other variants can be pulled in both Hobby and Retail formats. This includes highly desirable parallels like Blacks, Reds, Frozenfractors, and Superfractors. Also rare inserts such as Hidden Gems (which are FINALLY listed on an odds sheet, YAY!), Let’s Go!, Ultra Violet, and Helix. Superfractors of those inserts remain Hobby-only.
Yes, these hits are tougher to pull in retail, but they are absolutely available. The point here is this is not a product where you must buy Hobby formats to have a chance at meaningful hits.
At current pricing, Hangers are the clear value leader. A 15-card hanger for $20 sounds absurd on the surface, but perspective matters. For the price of two 4-card Hobby packs, you could buy three 15-card Hangers. One 11-card Jumbo pack equals roughly six and a half Hangers. And massive hits exist in all of the above.
From a “$ per auto” standpoint, Hangers are the best retail format, even on par with Hobby and Jumbo. If you find them in the wild, they are absolutely the play. That said, they’re already pushing $35 each on eBay, so availability may be short-lived. Personally, instead of dropping $650 on a Hobby box, I’d rather spend that on 32 Hangers. That’s half a case and should still yield 1 auto on average and about 6 numbered cards, comfortably outperforming a single Hobby box.
Hobby, Jumbo, and Breaker’s can be loaded. They can also be an absolute bloodbath. They are simply out of reach for a large segment of collectors. Fanatics Megas are traditionally strong, but here they don’t appear meaningfully better than standard Megas. They’re just more expensive, with the lone exception being the rare Authentic Redemptions, which is not enough to save them from being arguably the worst format for value.
Gold Logomen breakdown
As for the biggest chase in the product, Gold Logomen autos and relics, surprisingly, some do land in retail.
Gold Logoman Relic (Non-Auto):
12 total cards (4 each of SGA, Stephon Castle, Evan Mobley)
Distribution: of the 12, 3 are inserted into Hobby boxes, 3 in Jumbo, 2 in Breaker’s, 2 in Value Boxes, 1 in a Hanger, 1 in a Mega
Gold Logoman Autos (3 total cards):
2 are dispersed into Hobby boxes
1 lonely copy sitting in a regular Mega Box somewhere (I hope we see this reaction on video and that it's an average kid, not a breaker)
There may be more valuable individual cards, such as a LeBron Superfractor Auto, but the first Topps Logomen will likely be among the most coveted hits for years. Hopefully Topps expands Logomen beyond just MVP, ROY, and DPOY in future releases.
Main takeaways
This is a monumental, massive, yet masterfully crafted product with a gigantic print run. It’s hard to even call it overpriced, because it’s historic and contains legitimately life-changing hits. If you want to play, there are valid formats at every price point. But I assure you, there will be infinite complaining about box prices in all the groups and on all the videos. That part is guaranteed.
Print Runs
Unnumberd parallels:
Refractors- ~12,380 ea
Prism- ~2,100 ea
Negative- ~380 ea
Wave- ~560 ea
Base Sapphire- ~280 ea
Basketball Refractors- ~3,960 ea
Red, White & Blue- ~9,170 ea
Silver Basketball- Missing from the Odds Sheet
Lightboard Logos- ~235 ea
Pulsar- ~1,700 ea
Raywave- ~5,020 ea
X-Fractors- ~14,360 ea
Skylight (takes place of ToppsFractors in Fanatics Megas)- ~705 ea
First Day Issue- 16 ea
Unnumbered Inserts:
Youthquake (15 card CL)- ~14,100 ea
Sleek Finishers (30 card CL)- ~14,160 ea
Destiny (25 card CL)- ~16,300 ea
Instinct (20 card CL)- ~13,840 ea
Voices (10 card CL)- ~14,200 ea
Youthquake Refractors- ~1,450 ea
Sleek Finishers Refractors- ~1,430 ea
Destiny Refractors- ~1,435 ea
Instinct Refractors- ~1,435 ea
Voices Refractors- ~1,460 ea
(Confoundingly, the base Geometric parallels of all the above have crazy odds and compute to 3 copies ea. but I don't have a lot of trust in those odds.)
Loading... (15 card CL)- ~8,190 ea
Generation Rising (20 card CL)- ~8,225 ea
Tall Tales (25 card CL)- ~8,050 ea
Clutch Gene (30 card CL)- ~8,310 ea
X's and Whoa's! (10 card CL)- ~8,160 ea
Loading... Refractors- ~850 ea
Generation Rising Refractors- ~850 ea
Tall Tales Refractors- ~850 ea
Clutch Gene Refractors- ~850 ea
X's and Whoa's! Refractors- ~850 ea
(Weirdly, base Geometric parallels of the above inserts compute to 2 copies ea, but again, I don't know if I trust those odds.)
Rock Stars (20 card CL)- ~610 ea
Let's Go! (15 card CL)- ~55 ea
Ultra Violet (15 card CL)- ~220 ea
Radiating Rookies (10 card CL)- ~210 ea
Helix (20 card CL)- ~110 ea
Hidden Gems (5 card CL)- ~50 ea
Image Variations (50 card CL)- ~960 ea
Go Time (25 card CL)- ~38,460 ea
Ball of Duty (25 card CL)- ~38,500 ea
Inspirational (20 card CL)- ~37,100 ea
Activators (15 card CL)- ~37,380 ea
Serenity (15 card CL)- ~37,380 ea
Go Time Refractors- ~3,400 ea
Ball of Duty Refractors- ~3,400 ea
Inspirational Refractors- ~3,400 ea
Activators Refractors- ~3,400 ea
Serenity Refractors- ~3,400 ea
Go Time Raywave- ~1,350 ea
Ball of Duty Raywave- ~1,350 ea
Inspirational Raywave- ~1,350 ea
Activators Raywave- ~1,350 ea
Serenity Raywave- ~1,350 ea
Go Time Pulsar- ~65 ea
Ball of Duty Pulsar- ~65 ea
Inspirational Pulsar- ~65 ea
Activators Pulsar- ~65 ea
Serenity Pulsar- ~65 ea
Advisory (20 card CL)- ~690 ea
Glass Canvas (20 card CL)- ~700 ea
Paradox (30 card CL)- ~700 ea
Patented (30 card CL)- ~700 ea
Fanatical (25 card CL)- ~2,750 ea
Autos:
Autographs Rookies (40 card CL)- ~2,250 ea
Certified Issue Rookies (30 card CL)- ~490 ea
Certified Issue Rookie II (Retail- 25 card CL)- ~430 ea
Next Stop Signatures (30 card CL)- ~390 ea
Auto Rookies Refractors- ~230 ea
Certified Issue Rookies Refractors- ~250 ea
Next Stop Signatures Refractors- ~250 ea
Topps Chrome Autos (25 card CL)- ~90 ea
SKY-Write Signatures (33 card CL)- ~340 ea
Signature Style (37 card CL)- ~250 ea
Topps Chrome Autos Refractors- ~35 ea
SKY-Write Signatures Refractors- ~230 ea
Signature Style Refractors- ~240 ea
Future Stars Autos (30 card CL)- ~310 ea
Chromograph Rookies (20 card CL)- ~395 ea
Stratospheric Signatures Rookies (25 card CL)- ~255 ea
Certified Issue Rookies II Refractors (Retail)- ~45 ea
Future Stars Autos Refractors- ~70 ea
Chromographs Rookies Refractors- ~45 ea
Stratospheric Rookies Refractors- ~40 ea
Certified Auto Issue (38 card CL)- ~370 ea
Chromographs (28 card CL)- ~220 ea
Stratospheric Signatures (23 card CL)- ~380 ea
Certified Auto Issue Refractors- ~50 ea
Chromographs Refractors- ~45 ea
Stratospheric Refractors- ~45 ea
@CardPurchaser
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Upcoming Costco Releases + Membership Deal💫
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Expected in 2026: Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection
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For Costco, the queue system is most likely going to be used for all upcoming Pokemon TCG drops.
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