There are lots of people who have been in crypto since my time (early 2017) that basically haven’t made any money
You just don’t hear about them because dead bodies don’t talk
You need to assume that you’re an impulsive idiot who will round trip most of your money
So hedge against yourself
Get a job (in crypto or otherwise) and shove it into the S&P 500 as a cushion
It’s not sexy and your ego will take a hit, but it simply works
‘Worst’ case your crypto trading will be lower stress, you’ll make better decisions, and you’ll have more dry powder to execute on a few big trades per quarter or even per year
What you see on your feed isn’t real: it’s massive survivorship bias with varying amounts of LARPing
Zoomer trenches have microwaved normal people into thinking they need to be rotating 10x/day while ‘trading’ 16 hours/day while copy traders farm them, all while underperforming BTC
Most people lose most of their money
Survival is an actual edge in crypto, but you need to stick around long enough to make the most of it - and that means doing ‘boring’ stuff that works
GM
I am writing this: 1. I always learn better when I put my words into something legible. 2. I think this same mental framework should help other traders as well.
Finally—is this just cope for missing some setups I should have done well? Uh, yeah, honestly, it could be once in a while. But, if you take a more zoomed-out approach, you realize that trading is a marathon, not a sprint. You’re going to inevitably mess shit up, overtrade, undersize, get tilted, sell when you should have held, hold when you should have scalped it. But to me, one of the biggest mistakes you can make, if you are trading poorly or not seeing the market clearly, is refusing to slow down, adjust your strategy, and admit that maybe the market dynamics have changed. Maybe you should size down or take fewer opportunities before you dig yourself into a giant fucking hole, and it’s 10x harder to turn it around.
This is some clarity into how to refocus your energy and thought process before it’s too late.
One of my favorite trading quotes:
Cheers! Hopefully this resonates with some people :D
Got too comfortable last night and blew away this weeks’ profit. Had hedge setups but chose not to take them through complacency: one for the journal. Have reallocated some spot but expecting weekend chop to Tuesday bounce. Still team bull
Rest in peace to one of the best to ever do it. Jim Simons was not only an incredible trader and hedge fund manager, he left the world a better place with his philanthropy and created one of the largest charitable organizations in the United States.
Read "The Man Who Solved The Market".