Mayor Johnson is quoted as saying: "There is more economic prowess and activity that is coming through our city than we have seen in a generation." Now maybe he's seen unofficial 2025 growth figures (to be published by the BEA at year-end), but he's likely just making this up...
The unfortunate fact is that Chicago has had a miserable run of economic growth (or lack therof) in the 21st Century. Truly abysmal.
Using Cook County data as a proxy for Chicago GDP, we can see that since the start of the county-level Bureau of Economic Analysis data series begins in 2001, Chicago has posted real GDP growth (ie, economic growth adjusted for inflation) that trailed the U.S. average in 20 of the last 23 years.
Let me repeat: In 20 out of the last 23 years, Chicago has grown slower than the U.S. average. And not by an immaterial amount. Our real GDP growth has trailed that of the U.S. by an average of 1.2 percentage points annually.
The effect of that over such a long time horizon is monumental. If Chicago had grown at the average U.S. rate since 2001, our economy would be approximately 32% larger than it is today. That output gap amounts to a missing $173 billion.
That represents missing jobs, income, investment, prosperity - and most pertitently to local finance issues - missing tax revenue.
If we had just grown AT TREND, we would be in much better fiscal shape and not be in a position where we are faced with the prospect of either hugher taxes or service cuts. Pension funding would have also been on a much more manageable trajectory.
Instead we have structural deficits, higher taxes (by my estimates the highest local tax burden in the country - see below post), pensions on the verge of collapse, and we are on the cusp of becoming sub-investment credit. These issues together perpetuate all our financial challenges because they reinforce the narrative that Chicago is an unstable place to invest.
All of this is downstream of one issue: Economic Growth.
Economic growth is the most important thing we have to get right as a city if we have any chance of avoiding severe financial and tax repercussions. It is the only way forward of generating more prosperity across the city for all residents and improving everyone's quality of life.
In contrast to the mayor's claim, we are not seeing signs of generational economic growth. We had a bit of that under Rahm, but for the most part 21st Century Chicago is a story of a massive opportunity costs.
We need to fix that.
Chicago stops voters from deciding what matters.
In fact, no other big city does more to discourage democratic participation in local government.
Here are five examples.
1. The rule of three: Advisory questions can be useful. But in Chicago, they crowd out valuable ballot space. That’s because state law sets a “rule of three” in city elections, meaning only three referenda can appear at any one time. Lawmakers can use the rule of three to box out citizen-initiated referenda. So it’s no surprise Chicago voters haven’t decided a single issue on the ballot via citizen initiative in modern history.
2. Severely gerrymandered wards: Chicago politicians can pick their voters. Chicago City Council members, in concert with the mayor’s office, draw their own districts to reward friends and punish enemies.
3. February elections: Chicago is the only big city in the country that holds its municipal elections in February of an odd year. This timing suppresses voter turnout by 40%.
4. No city charter: Chicago is the only big city in the country without a charter. That means there is no mechanism nor civic culture for charter revision. Across the country, big-city charter revisions routinely offer voters the opportunity to decide serious governance matters.
5. Poor selection of elected offices: Chicagoans elect one citywide office that truly matters: the mayor. The other two citywide offices (clerk and treasurer) have very little authority. Unlike other big cities, Chicagoans do not elect an independent city attorney or chief financial officer.
Go deeper in this week's edition of The Last Ward.
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Your Cubs ticket costs 10% more because of Chicago’s amusement tax.
Pritzker already ruthlessly taxes your gas and paycheck from Springfield. The city piles another 10% on every game, concert, festival, and show.
They get you coming and going. They take more every year and still can’t fix the streets, schools, or crime.
Families keep leaving Illinois for this exact reason.
But sure, keep voting for the same people while the state bleeds residents.
🎥 @illinoispolicy
June 9: JB Pritzker: "Do people in Illinois want tolls raised to pay for the Bears? I don't think they do."
Two weeks later: He's defending the biggest toll hike in state history.
JB Pritzker is a slimy politician who talks out of both sides of his mouth.
Fifty years ago, Illinois politicians made a promise to taxpayers:
The tollway system would eventually become free.
Instead, it’s become a permanent, multi-billion-dollar cash cow. And now, they want even more.
Here is what the @GovPritzker-appointed @ILTollway is pushing for 2026:
>A massive 45-cent hike on passenger tolls, driving the average to $1.24 per toll.
>A 30% rate hike on commercial vehicles, which already sit at an all-time high.
>An extra $1 billion extracted from drivers every single year to fund a $26.5 billion capital plan.
>A permanent inflation escalator starting in 2029 to keep costs rising automatically.
The worst part? The Illinois Tollway is taking in more toll revenue than ever before. They are collecting far more than they need to operate and maintain the roads, with net revenues peaking in 2024.
Since 1973, Illinois taxpayers have poured at least $27 billion into these plazas.
Why are we paying for infrastructure that was supposed to be paid off decades ago?
Brandon Johnson is asked about the guy who set up the burning cross in Chicago:
“It's a painful reminder of how hatred towards black Americans still permeates in our society."
It was actually an Asian socialist’s protest against MAGA. Other than all of that, dead on, Mr Mayor.