Investor, Portfolio Management and Technical Analysis , Macro Investment Analysis . Marathon Runner . Views are my own, always do your own due diligence.
Every major SPY bottom since 2011 has been confirmed by one signal.
Not breadth. Not VIX. Not earnings.
The Copper/Gold ratio.
We backtested 7 drawdowns across 14 years. In 86% of cases, the CG ratio bottomed the same day as SPY or lagged by 10–29 days. It has never once led the equity bottom.
That makes it the cleanest confirmation signal we've found:
→ 2011 Debt Ceiling: CG confirmed +17 days later
→ 2016 China: CG confirmed same day
→ 2018 Fed: CG confirmed +10 days later
→ 2020 COVID: CG confirmed +29 days later
→ 2022 (Jun): CG confirmed +26 days later
→ 2022 (Oct): CG diverged — bottom was imminent anyway
→ 2025 April: CG confirmed +22 days later
Average forward return after confirmation:
+18.7% at 3 months | +24.9% at 6 months | 100% win rate
The April 2025 signal fired on April 30. Three months later, SPY is up 25%.
Copper prices global growth expectations. Gold prices fear. When the ratio stops falling, real money is rotating back to risk. $SPY $QQQ $VIX
$NDX We have a lot of readings saying things are oversold. But until we get New Lows busting higher on this chart, I'm in the oversold can stay in the oversold camp. I'm being patient, unusual for me. Panic is good. We need panic. Tells us a bottom is close. Wait for it.
$SPY would have to rally to 654.24 and $QQQ to 585.69 to fill this morning’s gaps. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is. Also, that 13-day ma has defined the short-term downtrend pretty nicely of late.
The S&P 500 has returned an average of 10% per year since 1928 despite an average intra-year drawdown of -16%. There's no upside without occasional downside, no reward without risk. $SPX
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