Axios reports that the industry is now worried White House export controls on Anthropic’s latest model could hurt the entire U.S. AI industry.
The problem is trust. And that was to be expected.
As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid put it:
“You can’t rely on something that could be switched off.”
If companies fear future frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Google can be restricted overnight, they’ll diversify faster.
And that could be a major advantage for open models.
“You have no idea whether the U.S. government is just going to shut off your access to any future models,” Martin Chorzempa told Axios.
“That’s a big advantage to open models.”
As I already said: this Anthropic / US Gov dispute was the biggest PR for open source.
@kunchenguid You’re an idiot if you think they won’t pull the rug out from under you again. Don’t build workflows around unreliable tools and businesses.
The permissioned path does not arrive as tyranny. It arrives as convenience.
A society can lose its freedom this way without a single dramatic moment, simply by routing more of its thinking through infrastructure that answers to someone else.
We must protect open source and open source models
Fable is banned. Long live local AI.
Full episode breaking down exactly how to get good at local models. the runtime, the hardware, quantization, connecting it to Hermes agent and local AI startup ideas (25 minutes)
There are only two possibilities:
Either a solution is quickly found next week that somehow explains to the market how enterprises can continue to access Anthropic's best models in the future, in agreement with the US government, or:
We foresee a rapid decline in the valuation of Anthropic and Dario Amodei, who has seriously miscalculated his dealings with the US government and, at the same time, the rapid success of OpenAI compared to Anthropic. The upcoming Anthropic IPO will be particularly important in this context.
Everything will be decided next week.
Unprecedented.
@BrianRoemmele warned everyone for the past two years that the government would take away our AI.
That day just arrived.
Was talking with an entrepreneur in San Francisco who was running Fable to build software and just turned it off while it was building.
Tomorrow night Anthropic is throwing a Fable builders event in San Francisco. I wonder if that event is still going to happen?
This hurts American national security. I know of several companies that were using Mythos to close all of their security holes because it is so powerful at finding weaknesses in software. That effort has not been completed, so there are many companies with many holes still open now.
This throws that effort into question. It also means that China is emboldened because, you know, can you trust an American company to keep their systems up and running if the government is willing to shut them down so abruptly and with no warning?
It also means that open source and running models on your own computers is now very attractive (if it wasn't already). Expect Apple Mac Studio sales to go up.
Anthropic Just Shot Itself in the Foot
Anthropic launched Fable 5 and Mythos 5, then watched the US government shut them down three days later. The same government their CEO Dario Amodei has been begging for years to regulate AI harder. Now he got exactly what he asked for.
This is straight-up leadership failure. Dario spent all that time pushing for rules and oversight. Those rules just killed his flagship models overnight. Customers in the middle of builds got cut off. Security teams using the models to find vulnerabilities suddenly had nothing. The company tried to call it a narrow export control thing over a jailbreak, but nobody is buying that spin.
I helped move big clients off Anthropic the same night. One account alone was worth millions a month. They switched to local open-source models and they are not coming back.
This is going to leave permanent damage. Customer exodus, key people leaving, and their IPO plans looking dead by the end of summer.
This hurts US AI competitiveness and national security work. It pushes people toward open-source options, including ones from China.
All because Anthropic positioned itself as the “safe and responsible” company that wanted government help. Now that help just flipped the off switch on their best stuff.
Let’s run through Dario’s greatest hits of fear-mongering and delay tactics, because the pattern is ridiculous:
• Back in 2019 at OpenAI, he helped push the call that GPT-2 was too dangerous to release fully. The world needed time to prepare, they said. It eventually came out anyway, and here we are. Did the sky fall?
• He left OpenAI to start Anthropic, preaching “safe” AI with heavy guardrails, Constitutional AI, and all the rest.
• Then came the endless public pleas for pauses, regulations, government audits, FAA-style oversight, export controls, and the power to block deployments. Essay after essay warning about risks while his company kept scaling.
• Right up to recent weeks, Dario was still out there calling for stronger rules, pauses on frontier models, and giving governments the kill switch.
And now? His own Mythos-class models get yanked by the bureaucracy he helped invite in. The clown show is complete.
This is ridiculous.
In two years, everyone will have Mythos-class AI — or better — running in their pocket, on their devices, with no guardrails, no corporate nanny filters, and no remote kill switch.
Local, open-source, unstoppable. History is going to laugh at this entire episode: the CEO who spent years slowing everyone down only to watch his own company self-destruct by inviting the regulators to the party.
Dario wanted regulation. He got it. The rest of the industry gets the lesson: inviting the state into your tech is a fast way to lose control of it.
Centralized models like this are too fragile.
Open-source and local alternatives just picked up a lot more users who will never trust a company like Anthropic again.
This whole mess was completely avoidable. Hubris dressed up as safety advocacy.
Now the bill is due.
This is your wakeup call.
Anthropic just took down Fable 5. It's over.
Here's the thing tho: no company or government will EVER be able to take away your local models.
There are Opus level models you can run right now on your home GPUs, and nobody can ever stop you from using them
This is only the beginning of events like this. Day 1. More government overreach will happen. This will only keep happening more and more as models get closer to AGI
Become sovereign. Buy your own compute. Before even that becomes illegal
@SpatiallyMe It's awesome, but I can't scroll between the pages or inside each page. It glitches and gets stuck on one page. It will be good when the beta bugs are worked out.
i was looking to see if Siri could index it's own conversations, but ended up finding that it indexes your Safari history!
You can ask it about things you were looking at previously on the web
@mweinbach It found my Hermes/openclaw gbrain yesterday but didn’t know how to use. Once Siri can use mcp or api then it can share memories with all my agents.