BoNisa

8 yrs in banking 😰and 7 yrs in Crypto business 🦄 🙂 Co-Founder of SIX Network + dcentralizer FB page

[Pannika Wanich @Pannika_FWP]

ความผิดของฮุน เซน ในเรื่องนี้คืออะไร? ไม่ใช่แค่ผิดมารยาทการทูตค่ะ การปล่อยคลิปนี้คือการจงใจแทรกแซงการเมืองภายในของประเทศอื่น ถึงขั้นหวังผล regime change หรือการเปลี่ยนรัฐบาล ซึ่งเป็นเรื่องร้ายแรงมาก

รัฐบาล หรืออย่างน้อยที่สุด กระทรวงต่างประเทศ ควรต้องออกแถลงการณ์ประณามฮุน เซน ในกรณีนี้ และมีท่าทีแข็งกร้าวตอบโต้เพื่อแสดงให้เห็นว่าไทยไม่ยอมตกเป็นเหยื่อการทูตไร้หลักการแบบนี้

แต่สิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น คือความว่างเปล่า

นายกรัฐมนตรีไม่เพียงไม่ขอโทษประชาชน ไม่แสดงความรับผิดชอบใดๆ และยังไม่แม้แต่จะมีท่าทีตอบโต้ฮุน เซน อย่างเป็นทางการเป็นงานสุดท้ายก่อนที่จะต้องพ้นจากตำแหน่งเพื่อรับผิดชอบในสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น

นี่คืออีกหนึ่งเหตุผลที่ทำให้ดิฉันเห็นว่า นายกใส่ใจกับปัญหาความอยู่รอดทางการเมืองของตัวเอง มากกว่ามุ่งมั่นในการดำเนินการทางการทูตเพื่อปกป้องเกียรติภูมิและผลประโยชน์ประเทศ นายกต้องยุบสภาทันที คืนอำนาจให้ประชาชนได้เลือกผู้ที่มีความสามารถมาบริหารจัดการปัญหานี้ ก่อนจะสายเกินไป

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

MY FIRST LONG TWEET.

Before ANY of more misinformation spreads on what I sometimes call “this damn platform, which capitalizes on sensationalism and misinformation,” this is why the Fed’s balance sheet grew last week by $298B.

The Discount Window at the Fed is OPEN. Discount Window borrowing increased $140.5 billion in one week taking total to $152.8 billion. (Prior weekly record was $111 billion in 2008 during the financial crisis per @business)

And additional $11.9 billion was borrowed from the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program

$142B in Fed Loans “Includes loans that were extended to depository institutions established by the FDIC. The Federal Reserve’s loans to these depository institutions are secured by the collateral and the FDIC provides repayment guarantees."

$7 billion in Treasuries fell and $2B in MBS rolled off the Fed’s as part of the Fed’s ongoing QT program.

cc @Stimpyz1

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

So many on FinTwit are expecting (hoping) for a 2008 redux. Here is why it can't happen...

In 2008 asset prices had fallen so far that the world was facing a collateral spiral. Then QE came and it took 6 months for collateral prices to stabilize and rise enough for debts to be manageable.

But since then, QE has worked PERFECTLY. You debase the currency via QE and prices rise INSTANTLY before it's too late and before collateral is called at a systemic level (ie before It's too low to offset the debts system-wide.). It is still called on at a local level.

This is what is going on now as the Fed balance sheet rises quickly in a financial crisis - the collateral prices begin to rise... and thus equities and bonds are rising commensurately (as is crypto and gold)

Yes, QE IS debasement. It doesn't drive liquidity into assets, or volumes would rise, but they don't. It's an adjustment in prices to account for the weaker purchasing power vs scarce assets.

Wages and earnings don't rise in QE as they are variable and not fixed, so P/E's rise, and also people can't afford houses, or can afford less per dollar of investment in all assets from equities, to housing from gold to crypto.

I have spent the last 2 years proving this in GMI (and to a certain extent RV Pro Macro). I know this to be true.

So, right now, all they need to do is print and collateral prices rise (bond prices (yields fall), equities, crypto, gold, etc). If the collateral is worth more, then the debt is not called at a system-wide level, unlike 2008.. Simple.

Don't believe me in a short tweet? I understand, but let me show you that 97% of all price movements in the S&P are due to G5 central bank balance sheets. See chart below.

Don't understand why P/E's keep rising? It's this Don't understand why equities are rallying? It's this. Don't understand why crypto is rising. It's this.

If you think inflation is the issue, I don't agree. But that's a tweet for another day.

QE is not inflationary. Fiscal policy IS, but it's short-lived. Japan has proven this time and time and time and time again. The trend rate of inflation is driven by demographics along with debt load (which in turn if a function of demographics) and that BIS paper on why it's inflationary is very wrong in my view IMHO (no space here to discuss how wrong that paper is!).

Here is the chart of the S&P vs the G5 balance sheets. Explain this away...and its not money going into equities from too much liquidity seeping into the system allowing people to buy. You can not statistically prove that.

It is debasement.

Same as Venezuela or Iran, just more subtle and slower and no, the US can not default and yes, @SantiagoAuFund is right, it causes the dollar to rise.... anyway.

More in time on all this or just short cut it and get Global Macro Investor (sorry, its not for everyone!) or at least watch my video on this on Real Vision (but its just the start).

TL:DR - Balance sheet up = risk assets up = crypto and tech outperforming. Buy Mortimer, buy!

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

QT will probably end in early 2023, and not because of recession.

It will stop because the Fed can't shrink its balance sheet past $8trn ($8.9trn now) without introducing problems for the system.

The math is below.

1/

(Fed total assets)

[BoNisa @bonisa]

@InsomPoramin Bullyคนแก่นี่หว่าาาาาาาาาา อายุไม่เกินxx

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

In response to today’s CPI print which showed broad-based and accelerating inflation, short-term FF futures moved upward implying peak FF of 3.68% by 12/22 with the @federalreserve immediately thereafter cutting rates to reach 2.9% by 1/24. Implicitly the market expects a more

[olimpio @OlimpioCrypto]

5/35

Optimism Strategy: $PIKA $CLIPP 🔴

Protocols: @PikaProtocol, @Clipper_DEX

In spite of $OP launching Airdrop #1, this strategy still works.

$OP's Airdrop #2, #3, etc will come. They only airdropped 5%, there's 14% supply left 🪂

https://t.co/rePAGTB0CR

[Harry. @CryptoHarry_]

$LUNA per:

Pre-attack $aUST = ~0.0183

Post-attack $UST = ~0.0235

Pre-attack $LUNC = ~1.0347

Post-attack $LUNC = ~0.0000153

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

1/ On the Fed, the bottom, and a potential relief rally.

Part 2: the macro bottom

Thread 🧵

[BoNisa @bonisa]

Oh normally it is your responsibility as CEO to repay users before shareholders as those tokens of users are in the liability side of the balance sheet (not asset) and as always shareholders are the last to get when a company is filed for bankruptcy.

[BoNisa @bonisa]

@zerohedge Who bought from fed?

[BoNisa @bonisa]

Stock trading seems now the only way for crypto exchanges to make more money. #ftx

[BoNisa @bonisa]

อีป้าปากไม่ดีอีกแล้ว

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

YELLEN: RISING FOOD AND ENERGY COSTS HAVING STAGFLATIONARY EFFECTS

big if true

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

YELLEN: RISING FOOD AND ENERGY COSTS HAVING STAGFLATIONARY EFFECTS

big if true

[BoNisa @bonisa]

@killerape77 น่าจะ no ยาก เค้าน่าจะคุยกับ validators ที่ต้องซื้อ post attack luna หมดแล้วแหละเราว่า ไม่ได้สนใจ retail เท่าไหร่หรอก

[Harry. @CryptoHarry_]

I agree to this proposal, my only concerns are:

1. $aUST holders pre-attack should receive equal (or more) when compared to $UST holders post-attack.

2. $aUST holders has to include users in protocols like Pylon.

$LUNA and dev proportions are pretty fair IMO.

[BoNisa @bonisa]

@InsomPoramin Best is tmr 19 for lunch ja

[BoNisa @bonisa]

@InsomPoramin เพิ่งกลับมาถึงเลย เดินทางเมื่อไหร่ นัดๆ

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*BULLARD: US WILL BE RESERVE CURRENCY 'FOR A LONG TIME TO COME'

This is a problem since Bullard has been wrong about absolutely everything, always...